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  • JPY – A gathering storm - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • We highlight increasing downside risks to USD-JPY in the near term; expect a pick-up in JPY volatility • The Bank of Japan appears comfortably sidelined for now even as domestic data hits a soft patch • We revise our short-term USD-JPY forecas...

  • Japan trip notes – Domestic issues matter the most - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    Local sentiment continues to improve, but caution remains on the reform outlook • China’s slower growth is negatively affecting Japan’s economy, but not substantially • We are more concerned about progress on domestic reforms, which will determin...

  • 08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates steady - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 26-Mar – In the steady hands of the CBC - Updated Tue March 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Bad weather likely weighed on February data • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep policy unchanged in March • South Africa – MPC seen on hold at March meeting; risks are building • Market focus • Expect the CBC to k...

  • 18-Mar – The new BoK governor - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • UK – Labour-market slack is lessening • United States – Inflation to stay subdued; housing to edge up • Market focus • Ju-yeol Lee is likely to be confirmed as the new Ban...

  • 13-Mar – IDR and THB rallies to stall near-term - Updated Wed March 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ minutes to shed more light on future policy stance • India – February WPI likely slipped below 5% • US – Retail sales likely picked up mildly as the weather improved • Market focus • We believe the IDR and TH...

  • 10-Mar – USD beached on the ‘island of stability’ - Updated Sun March 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ is likely to stay put after its last surprise announcement • Philippines – Export growth likely started 2014 on a firm footing • United Kingdom – 2014 output rises to meet growing domestic and external demand • ...

  • 07-Mar – China, commodities and currencies - Updated Thu March 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Trade deficit to stay in single digits • Japan – C/A was likely in deficit again in January • US – February’s job report to show a hiring slowdown amid bad weather • Market focus • China’s February trade data to so...

  • Japan – Kurodanomics ‘works’ again - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    • The BoJ surprised the market by expanding its current loan-support programme • We do not think the BoJ is likely to roll out any fresh easing in the near term • Reform implementation remains critical for Japan’s revival...

  • 19-Feb – Kurodanomics ‘works’ again - Updated Tue February 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export orders likely declined due to seasonal effects • Euro area – Flash PMIs to boost confidence on recovery • Japan – Fast import growth but slower exports likely in January • Market focus • The BoJ surprised...



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08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates...

Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the BoK to maintain its 7-day repo rate at 2.50%...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.