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  • 03-Mar – China’s political meetings in focus - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data to show pick-up in economic activity • Brazil – Tightening mode for now • Canada – BoC took out insurance in Jan; may wait now, then cut again • Market focus • China’s all-important annual NPC an...

  • 05-Feb – Oil prices make US payroll call slippery - Updated Wed February 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy likely to be bearish • Malaysia – Weaker MYR likely supported the trade balance • China – January trade data to benefit from holiday distortion • Market focus • We predict payr...

  • 12-Jan – Big caveat for December’s US job data - Updated Sun January 11, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China − Trade performance likely remained weak in December • Japan – C/A surplus likely shrank; better Econ Survey results • UK – CPI headline inflation likely eased on lower energy prices • Market focus • US non-farm pay...

  • 07-Jan – FOMC minutes to show Fed still in no rush - Updated Tue January 6, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Disinflationary pressures continue to build • Malaysia – Industrial production likely buoyed by solid domestic activity • UK – MPC will likely keep rates unchanged • Market focus • FOMC meeting minutes are unlikely ...

  • 11-Dec – A cold winter in China - Updated Wed December 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – CPI to be pulled lower by base effect • US – Core November retail sales likely remained healthy • US – Democrats’ ‘rebellion’ leads to higher uncertainty on funding bill • Market focus • China’s November growth pro...

  • 05-Dec – US: No wage gain, no UST pain - Updated Thu December 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade surplus likely widened in November on weak imports • Japan – Q3 GDP likely to be revised up; C/A surplus likely narrowed • Mexico – Weakening MXN should keep Banxico on hold • Market focus • Our November NFP f...

  • 10-Nov – The US labour-market through train - Updated Sun November 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A likely negative, sentiment likely improved in September • China – We lower our target for long-dated CGB bonds • Philippines – Export growth likely boosted C/A surplus • Market focus • Payrolls posted another ab...

  • 07-Nov – Payroll report to test ‘Econ 101’ - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Growing concern over a weak JPY • China – Steady exports likely contributed to growth in October • India – SIGMA signal is bullish for duration in November • Market focus • October payrolls likely strong again...

  • 31-Oct – Weaker MXN to keep Banxico on hold - Updated Thu October 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI introduces regulation on hedging foreign-currency debt • China – No improvement in the manufacturing sector expected • US – Low wage growth and soft inflation to keep the Fed patient • Market focus • We expe...

  • 09-Oct – FOMC: Considerably cautious - Updated Wed October 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Robust export growth likely to continue • China – Credit growth remains in low gear • India – Industrial production likely to remain weak • Market focus • Fed Minutes had a dovish undertone, revealing worries ...

  • 07-Oct – Brazil: To a run-off we go - Updated Mon October 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A surplus likely shrank in August • China – CNH discount likely to narrow after the Golden Week holiday • United States – FOMC minutes likely hawkish • Market focus • Brazil’s presidential elections will go to a ...

  • 18-Sep – Scotland referendum: Trading like it’s 1992 - Updated Wed September 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – PBoC launches major SLF liquidity injection • United States – A still-dovish Fed, but cracks are appearing • South Africa – Weak GDP outlook to keep SARB on hold in September • Market focus • The Scotland referend...

  • 15-Sep – Rotation from CEMEA into Asia to persist - Updated Sun September 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Overseas FX deposits extend their upswing • UK – CPI inflation rate was likely unchanged in August • United States – Likely reversal in August’s IP after strong July data • Market focus • Global liquidity to remai...

  • 05-Sep – The ECB, non-farm payrolls and Asia FX - Updated Thu September 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade balance likely remained in surplus • Japan – Q2 GDP probably will be revised lower; July C/A likely turned positive • Canada – Job growth likely slowed in August on reduced part-time jobs • Market focus • EC...

  • 01-Aug – China: Change in OMOs sends mixed signals - Updated Thu July 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Retail and external trade likely improved but remained weak • Singapore – PMIs likely to remain in expansionary territory • US – We forecast that NFPs returned to trend, wage growth stayed soft • Market focus ...

  • 31-Jul – Fed policy: Boiling the frog - Updated Wed July 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Exports likely picked up, CPI inflation stayed benign • China – We expect a higher official PMI reading for July • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated on a m/m basis in July • Market focus • The FOMC del...

  • 06-Jun – Non-farm payrolls: Reversion to the mean - Updated Thu June 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade performance likely improved in May • Japan – Current account surplus, improving local sentiment expected • Taiwan – Exports likely rose on increased tech demand in May • Market focus • After a solid print in A...

  • 29-May – The long shadow of US Q1 GDP data - Updated Wed May 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – April data to reflect reaction to sales-tax hike • China – USD-CNH approaches the year’s highs • Brazil – Q1 expected to show a weak start to 2014 • Market focus • Revised US Q1 GDP data could resuscitate fears a...

  • 08-May – Revising our US Treasury yield forecasts [Correction] - Updated Wed May 7, 2014

    This supersedes the version published on 07 May 2014. Page 2, corrects UST forecast table. • Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation likely bottomed in April • Philippines – Exports likely remained supportive of GDP growth • South Korea – BoK is...

  • 07-May – Europe: Whether to cut, when to hike - Updated Tue May 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely remained at 5.8% in April • China – Trade performance expected to have remained weak • US – Yellen expected to follow the script; but watch for bombshells • Market focus • We expect the ...



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03-Mar – China’s political meetings in focus

Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data to show pick-up in economic activity • Brazil – Tightening mode for now • Canada – BoC took out insurance in Jan; may wait now, then cut again • Market focus • China’s all-important annual NPC and CPPCC meetings will start on 3 March...

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