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  • 07-May – US payrolls likely soldiered on - Updated Wed May 6, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – April trade data probably will show a modest export recovery • UK – We expect the BoE to keep the bank rate unchanged • Germany – Industrial production likely ticked up in March • Market focus • We see April payroll...

  • 30-Apr – Fed data-watching continues - Updated Wed April 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing sector likely still under pressure • South Korea – April trade probably softened further • Mexico – Banxico likely to hold back, awaiting the Fed’s move • Market focus • Fed statement noted recent weak...

  • 23-Apr – China SOE default: A blessing in disguise - Updated Wed April 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • United States – Underlying trend in new home sales is firming up • Germany – IFO business climate likely continued to improve • Vietnam – April data likely showed steady growth • Market focus • First SOE default likely to im...

  • 17-Apr – USD-CNY forecast revisions - Updated Thu April 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – March export orders likely supported by rising tech demand • Malaysia – Inflation to increase from April • US – March CPI inflation data likely to support the Fed’s ‘no rush’ view • Market focus • We raise CNY fore...

  • 14-Apr – China’s growth likely slowed further - Updated Mon April 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – March unemployment rate was likely subdued • Euro area – Good momentum, but the ECB will continue with QE • US – Consumers likely returned to shops in March • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP growth may have slow...

  • 03-Mar – China’s political meetings in focus - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data to show pick-up in economic activity • Brazil – Tightening mode for now • Canada – BoC took out insurance in Jan; may wait now, then cut again • Market focus • China’s all-important annual NPC an...

  • 05-Feb – Oil prices make US payroll call slippery - Updated Wed February 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy likely to be bearish • Malaysia – Weaker MYR likely supported the trade balance • China – January trade data to benefit from holiday distortion • Market focus • We predict payr...

  • 12-Jan – Big caveat for December’s US job data - Updated Sun January 11, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China − Trade performance likely remained weak in December • Japan – C/A surplus likely shrank; better Econ Survey results • UK – CPI headline inflation likely eased on lower energy prices • Market focus • US non-farm pay...

  • 07-Jan – FOMC minutes to show Fed still in no rush - Updated Tue January 6, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Disinflationary pressures continue to build • Malaysia – Industrial production likely buoyed by solid domestic activity • UK – MPC will likely keep rates unchanged • Market focus • FOMC meeting minutes are unlikely ...

  • 11-Dec – A cold winter in China - Updated Wed December 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – CPI to be pulled lower by base effect • US – Core November retail sales likely remained healthy • US – Democrats’ ‘rebellion’ leads to higher uncertainty on funding bill • Market focus • China’s November growth pro...



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07-May – US payrolls likely soldiered on

Top 3 data/events • China – April trade data probably will show a modest export recovery • UK – We expect the BoE to keep the bank rate unchanged • Germany – Industrial production likely ticked up in March • Market focus • We see April payrolls rebounding to 245,000, above the consensus...

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Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.