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  • China – Q1 was weak; Q2 will likely be weaker - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • China’s official Q1 GDP grew 7.4%, slightly outperforming market expectations • Growth in credit and housing sales, the key leading indicators, is decelerating • We adjust down our CPI inflation forecast for 2014 to 2.3% from 3.3% • Stimulus me...

  • 15-Apr – Draghi puts EUR strength in the crosshairs - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth momentum likely softened in Q1 • Euro area – CPI final print likely to match the preliminary data • US – Yellen to clarify view on long-run inflation, growth and FFTR • Market focus • Draghi’s IMF comments c...

  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • 31-Mar – Reserve Bank of India likely to stay on hold - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI may show further moderation • South Korea – CPI inflation expected to be benign, even with recovery • Australia – RBA likely to maintain a ‘period of stability’ in rates • Market focus • Sharp correction in in...

  • 20-Mar – Colombia's gain is other EMs' pain - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Further heavy corporate FX selling in February • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain on an uptrend • Mexico – Our MFCI still shows tight monetary conditions • Market focus • Colombia’s weight in EM bond indices w...

  • 14-Mar – Asian fixed income outperforms CEMEA’s - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – February exports likely benefited from a low base • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained buoyant in January • China – Growth moderated, but official data complicates the reading • Market focus • Indon...

  • 12-Mar – Fine-tuning our G10 FX forecasts - Updated Tue March 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth likely moderated due to seasonal effects • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged in March • Malaysia – External tailwinds likely supported IP growth in January • Market focus • We are adjusting sele...

  • 07-Mar – China, commodities and currencies - Updated Thu March 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Trade deficit to stay in single digits • Japan – C/A was likely in deficit again in January • US – February’s job report to show a hiring slowdown amid bad weather • Market focus • China’s February trade data to so...

  • China – Minister Lou Jiwei’s 2014 to-do list - Updated Thu March 6, 2014

    • China’s budgetary stance for 2014 is neutral; it forecasts a 2.1% deficit • SOEs are still not contributing much to the MoF budget, but the situation is gradually improving • The MoF is overhauling budget planning, improving transparency, cuttin...

  • 28-Feb – Manageable inflation in Asia - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – PMI likely maintained a positive but weak signal • South Korea – Trade expected to have increased in February • China – Manufacturing sector likely saw a mild expansion in February • Market focus • Asia will se...

  • 11-Feb – Asian demand/supply outlook; buy 10Y THB - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – GDP growth likely supported by increased external demand • China – Trade performance likely softened in January • US – Yellen’s testimony: Watch for hints about Fed’s forward guidance • Market focus • PHP bonds s...

  • China – Imbalance of payments, 2013-14 - Updated Wed January 22, 2014

    Dollars are flowing back into China, renewing pressure for Renminbi appreciation • We look for a current account surplus of nearly USD 400bn in 2014, bringing FX reserves to USD 4.4tn • Band widening and increased USD-CNY volatility will likely no...

  • Offshore RMB – Survey says momentum to continue - Updated Tue January 7, 2014

    • The RGI rose 6.1% m/m in November, mainly driven by strong deposit and cross-border payment growth • Survey shows strong growth potential for CNH usage by mainland corporates across trade, FX and loans • Corporates need to become more proactive ...

  • China – A primer on banks’ wealth management - Updated Tue January 7, 2014

    • Your essential guide to how wealth management products (WMPs) work, risks and evolving regulation • WMP AUM is now around CNY 11tn and growing at 65% y/y • Document No. 9 should trigger a gradual unwinding of interbank investments in shadow loan...

  • 07-Jan – Stay calm and wait - Updated Mon January 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade performance likely stayed firm in December • Malaysia – Exports probably improved further in November • Germany – Forging ahead • Market focus • Bank of Korea (BoK) will likely maintain its 7-day repo rate at...

  • 20-Dec – EM-21 reserve monitor update - Updated Thu December 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – USD-CNY fix rises following Fed taper • Singapore – Stable inflation and industrial production expected • Vietnam – 2013 GDP likely grew 5.3% y/y; inflation is well contained • Market focus • EM-21 reserves inc...

  • 13-Dec – Top rates trades for 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNH drops to a discount to CNY onshore • Japan – Q4 Tankan survey to show large manufacturers are upbeat • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed on base effects • Market focus • Our total-returns analysis ...

  • 06-Dec – India’s state election signal - Updated Thu December 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – November macro data to be in focus next week • Japan – October current account likely remained in surplus • United States – The Fed will likely take a holistic view of Friday’s data • Market focus • Indian state el...

  • 18-Nov – The Plenum delivered! - Updated Sun November 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA minutes to reflect its cautious view • Turkey – CBRT set to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.5% • Ghana – Pace of fiscal consolidation will be closely watched • Market focus • China rolls out biggest econo...

  • 07-Nov – Tracking FX option supply and demand - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – ECB may signal action should market conditions warrant it • China – Trade surplus was likely sizeable again in October • Malaysia – Trade recovery likely continued in September • Market focus • The SDR derivati...



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15-Apr – Draghi puts EUR strength in the...

Top 3 data/events • China – Growth momentum likely softened in Q1 • Euro area – CPI final print likely to match the preliminary data • US – Yellen to clarify view on long-run inflation, growth and FFTR • Market focus • Draghi’s IMF comments caught attention but probably do not signal a...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.