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  • Offshore Renminbi – Resilience to be tested in 2015 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB • By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn • Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...

  • Close short USD-CNH DF - Updated Fri December 19, 2014

    CNY may weaken mildly near-term, despite the lack of a depreciating signal from the fix • Tightness in both onshore and offshore liquidity likely to persist, keeping forward points elevated • We close our short USD-CNH 6M DF position and look for ...

  • Take profit on short USD-CNH 6M DF trade - Updated Wed August 20, 2014

    USD-CNY and USD-CNH spot has bounced off 6.14 and CNH forward points remain elevated • Near-term CNY gains may be muted on mixed July data and broader USD gains • Leveraged accounts should take profit on their short USD-CNH 6M DF positions...

  • Close USD-CNY NDF long in CNH-CNY forward trade - Updated Thu July 10, 2014

    USD-CNY fix retreated by 0.3% in just two days amid China-USD SED talks and June trade data • USD-CNY NDF curve has extended steepening, with USD-CNH 6M NDF marginally higher than a week ago • Leveraged accounts long USD-CNY 6M NDFs vs. short USD-...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, bigger Renminbi - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    • We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover • New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB • We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...

  • 28-Jun – Enjoy it while it lasts - Updated Thu June 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI is on a weakening trend • Japan – Q2 Tankan survey is likely to show continued improvement • NZD – Revised NZD-USD forecasts • Market focus • EM local markets are likely to consolidate near-ter...

  • Sell USD-CNY 5M NDF vs. existing USD-CNH long - Updated Fri June 14, 2013

    USD-CNH forwards edge up on spot rebound and broad US dollar strength, favouring our USD long • Retreat in CNY’s trade-weighted value on the JPY rebound moderates case for higher USD-CNY fixes • Selling USD-CNY NDF 5M against our existing USD...

  • Buy USD-CNH via 6M forward - Updated Thu May 23, 2013

    The dollar’s broad-based advance has triggered powerful gains in the CNY’s trade-weighted value • China activity data remains lacklustre, undermining the case for further near-term CNY gains versus USD • Long USD in USD-CNH 6M forward would benef...

  • Take profit on short USD-CNY NDF - Updated Mon May 13, 2013

    • Broader US dollar strength may trigger a short-lived rebound in the PBoC’s USD-CNY daily fixes • A shift in the demand-supply balance in the mainland FX market may lift USD-CNY spot • Going forward, we look for opportunities to establish forward...

  • New SAFE rules: Less than meets the eye - Updated Tue May 7, 2013

    • SAFE created a new mechanism to regulate bank NOPs by linking bank FX LDR ratios with the NOP floor • The aggregate necessary increase in NOP is estimated at USD 23bn, a relatively small amount in our view • Stricter scrutiny of trade invoices ...

  • CNY – Band widening likely by end-Q3 - Updated Mon May 6, 2013

    • USD-CNY demand/supply was heavily in favour of sales in Q1, but should be more balanced in Q2 • More balanced demand/supply and new SAFE rules increase the chance of band widening • We see a 33% chance of CNY band widening before the July SED, o...



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