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  • 10-Apr – AXJ currency rally supported by yield-seeking - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Feb IIP set to disappoint at -0.4% y/y • GBP-CAD – Lowering the stop-loss on our short position • US – FOMC minutes downplay the hawkish ‘dots’ • Market focus • The stabilisation in UST yields and fall in US rate vo...

  • 09-Apr – China – More stimulus needed - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate was likely 6.0% in March • Malaysia – External demand likely supported IP in February • UK – BoE may stay on hold while MPC digests flurry of positive data • Market focus • Policy is shifting ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI unaffected by FX volatility - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    • RGI rose 6.8% y/y in February; strong momentum likely carried over to March, despite volatile CNY • Appointment of clearing banks in Europe will boost Renminbi usage; deposits in Taiwan keep growing • Higher CNY volatility will be the post band-...

  • 07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE - Updated Sun April 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ...

  • 18-Mar – The new BoK governor - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • UK – Labour-market slack is lessening • United States – Inflation to stay subdued; housing to edge up • Market focus • Ju-yeol Lee is likely to be confirmed as the new Ban...

  • 10-Mar – USD beached on the ‘island of stability’ - Updated Sun March 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ is likely to stay put after its last surprise announcement • Philippines – Export growth likely started 2014 on a firm footing • United Kingdom – 2014 output rises to meet growing domestic and external demand • ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, bigger Renminbi - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    • We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover • New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB • We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...

  • Sell GBP-CAD - Updated Tue February 25, 2014

    Our SC IMM positioning model is showing a ‘Sell’ signal for GBP-CAD, pointing to a downside correction • Canada’s fundamentals have improved; short-term factors are supporting the GBP, despite weaker data • We are adding GBP-CAD shorts to the Stan...

  • UK – Cut the slack - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    • Spare capacity is key for BoE policy makers: by Q4-2014, less slack in the labour market should trigger concerns over the medium-term inflation outlook • We expect a measured hiking path equivalent to 25bps each quarter from Q1-2015 through 2016 ...

  • 18-Feb – No change in the PBoC’s policy stance - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – CPI inflation likely edged up further in January • UK – BoE minutes to echo Inflation Report as unemployment falls to 7% • South Africa – January CPI inflation a key focus • Market focus • Credit growth was...

  • UK – Cut the slack! - Updated Wed February 12, 2014

    The BoE drops its unemployment threshold and is now focusing on spare capacity and productivity • Economic slack could be eliminated by early 2015, with unemployment reaching equilibrium by late 2014 • We revise up our 2014-15 GDP forecast, cut 20...

  • 05-Feb – AXJ FX PCA: Global weakness, local strength - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy rates unchanged • Thailand – Close THB 2/5Y IRS steepener for a loss of 9bps • UK – BoE policy on hold while market braces for the Inflation Report • Market focus • We update our P...

  • 04-Feb – EM-21: AUD, CAD oversold on reserve trend - Updated Mon February 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Inflation likely to remain within the BSP’s target this year • UK – Services PMI trends down but activity remains expansionary • US – Through ADP glasses, we expect a healthy January reading Market focus • EM-...

  • 27-Jan – China risks to weigh on AXJ local markets - Updated Sun January 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Growth likely picked up in Q4-2013 • UK – Preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP to show sturdy momentum • United States – Corporate investment likely supported Q4 GDP growth • Market focus • Limited contagion risk to Asia...

  • 21 Jan – We expect the BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely rose in December; to trend higher in 2014 • Taiwan – Economic activity rebound likely boosted December hiring • UK – Forward guidance under scrutiny as unemployment nears 7% Market focus • We see...

  • 17-Jan – China’s Q4 GDP was likely solid - Updated Thu January 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Lunar New Year demand likely supported export orders • Hong Kong – Jobless rate expected to stay low for longer • United Kingdom – December retail sales likely to nudge upwards • Market focus • We forecast China’s...

  • SC IMM: Positioning risks show AUD ‘Buy’ signal - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    Our SC IMM positioning heatmap suggests AUD may see a major short-term rally • Leveraged net shorts in the AUD vs. the USD, EUR, GBP and NZD reach sample extremes • Leveraged funds should buy 1M EUR-AUD, GBP-AUD put spreads...

  • 13-Jan – Fed vs. weather - Updated Sun January 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Labour market expected to have remained stable • Japan – Current account likely stayed negative in November • UK – Inflation likely to have stabilised in December • Market focus • December NFP a cold shower, ...

  • 09-Jan – Steady job gains, steady taper - Updated Wed January 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – November IIP likely to stay in negative territory • Philippines – Exports likely fell on a m/m basis in November • UK – Industrial production expected to maintain positive momentum • Market focus • Following robust...

  • 03-Jan – JPY fall extends into undervalued territory - Updated Thu January 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – PMI likely remained in expansionary territory • Taiwan – Inflation expected to inch up in 2014 • UK – Holiday period may have boosted services sector • Market focus • Policy divergence and widening rate spreads ...



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10-Apr – AXJ currency rally supported by...

Top 3 data/events • India – Feb IIP set to disappoint at -0.4% y/y • GBP-CAD – Lowering the stop-loss on our short position • US – FOMC minutes downplay the hawkish ‘dots’ • Market focus • The stabilisation in UST yields and fall in US rate vol has boosted demand for EM carry • Risks...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.