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  • BRL – Short positioning looks excessive - Updated Fri April 25, 2014

    We revise inflation higher and GDP lower; we now expect IPCA of 6.3% and growth of 1.8% for 2014 • But our growth forecast remains above-consensus, as we expect a boost from global growth • The BCB is done, for now; we expect more hikes after the...

  • 25-Apr – Banxico, BanRep dovish in their own ways - Updated Thu April 24, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • EM bonds – Impact of ELMI+ rebalancing should be limited • Japan – Retail sales likely continued to accelerate m/m in March • Taiwan – Leading index likely to show stronger growth in Q1 • Market focus • We expect Ba...

  • Thermal coal – Chinas pollution concerns - Updated Thu April 24, 2014

    • China traders expect domestic coal price to stabilise in Q2, but H2 outlook is mixed • Focus is on the radical change in China’s energy mix over the longer term • Extent of commitment to reducing carbon emissions will determine long-term coal de...

  • 24-Apr – Moment of truth for the JPY trade - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • Singapore – IP likely remained robust in March • US – Still waiting for the corporate capex boom • Market focus • We expect Japan’s core CPI inflation to have rema...

  • UK – On the up - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • UK activity remains buoyant: we forecast GDP growth of 0.8-0.9% q/q in H1-2014 • BoE policy makers are split over how much slack remains - and hence, at what point rates should rise • Near-term inflation pressures have eased, but wage growth i...

  • Thailand – FIFs to keep THBFIX low; receive 5Y IRS - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    AUM of foreign investment funds has hit USD 20bn, almost double the peak of Kimchi funds in 2010 • We expect FIFs’ AUM to grow further amid the postponement of infra-projects; this may keep THBFIX low • The economic outlook is weak given political...

  • 23-Apr – Solid Korean growth and the KRW puzzle - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ will likely hike the cash rate again, to 3.00% • Germany – IFO to show firm fundamentals dampened by shaky outlook • US – Markit PMI survey may show ongoing manufacturing expansion • Market focus ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • ETF: Focus is on precious metals, notably palladium funds; gold flows are bearish on positive US data • CFTC: The uptick in managed-money flows was led by energy sector; Arabica net spec is overextended...

  • Hong Kong – SMEs remain cautiously optimistic - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    Our survey shows that SMEs are less optimistic on Q2-2014 than they were a quarter ago • The 50.8 reading is still consistent with business expansion; margin concerns have re-emerged • All three major industry sub-indices are above 51.0, boding we...

  • Sri Lanka – Maintaining the status quo on rates - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    The Central Bank of Sri Lanka kept policy rates unchanged at its 22 April meeting • Upside risks to inflation increase the likelihood that it will keep rates on hold for longer • Private credit growth continues to slow, while external sector perfo...

  • New RV signals for swaps: GBP and KRW steepener - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    We update the signals from our RV model for swaps based on a PCA framework • New RV signals: GBP 3Y/10Y steepener and KRW 5Y/10Y steepener • Of the 20 closed signals since we launched our RV model, 15 would have delivered profits, 5 losses...

  • Sri Lanka – Weather woes - Updated Mon April 21, 2014

    Sri Lanka’s rice harvest will likely be affected by the ongoing drought • Food inflation should rise significantly during the summer; we expect some impact in the winter, too • If the El Niño effect materialises, headline inflation could rise to...

  • Taiwan – Things are looking up - Updated Fri April 18, 2014

    Latest Taiwan data shows growth momentum picking up and inflation edging higher The recent student protest is likely to have only a minimal impact on the near-term growth outlook Policy makers may consider shifting to a neutral monetary stance and...

  • Turkey trip notes – Before and after elections - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    • Despite differences of opinion, the AKP election victory is viewed as conducive to stability • The political roadmap may be clearer, but this does not rule out more market-moving political noise • We reaffirm our GDP growth call of 2.2% for 201...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads: 11 – 16 April 2014 - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    • The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 11 to 16 April 2014. They are listed in descending order of most reads: • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows •...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and NGN - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Asia: In March, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY, SGD, INR; USD buyers vs. HKD, THB, CNH • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. INR, KRW, CNY; long USD positioning is large vs. IDR, CNH • Africa: SCTF Position Index shows clients are...

  • KRW – Underpinned by ‘under-conversion’ - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Korea’s substantial current account surpluses have been fully recycled by capital account deficits • Under-conversion of overseas FX receivables may be a source of KRW demand going forward • Growth-inflation mix is broadly neutral for USD-KRW, b...

  • China – The expanding credit universe and the deleveraging challenge - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    This slide pack shows what is happening with credit in China today • We show how WMPs work, how offshore borrowing is rising and how best to measure credit growth • Phase one of deleveraging – slower credit growth – has begun; we outline the next ...

  • 17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1 - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y...

  • China – Q1 was weak; Q2 will likely be weaker - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • China’s official Q1 GDP grew 7.4%, slightly outperforming market expectations • Growth in credit and housing sales, the key leading indicators, is decelerating • We adjust down our CPI inflation forecast for 2014 to 2.3% from 3.3% • Stimulus me...



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17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.