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  • Sell USD-CNH 3Mx12M DF - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    We recommend selling USD-CNH 3Mx12M outright in the FX Trading Portfolio We expect stability in USD-CNY near-term as authorities calm depreciation worries ahead of IMF meeting We recommend being Neutral on the CNY against the USD in AXJ regional F...

  • 01-Apr – US – The payroll/GDP debate - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to have remained weak • Turkey – Headline CPI likely eased in March • FX – Our forecasts for 2015 and 2016 • Market focus • We look for a moderation in payroll growth: our forecast is 230,000 ...

  • Silk Road: China commodity trade - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    • OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports has seen a limited recovery so far in 2015 • The collapse in scrap imports supported China’s primary copper cathode demand in February • Crude oil imports have maintained their strong y/y rise; oil produ...

  • Nigeria – March BSI rises to 61.0 from series-low - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    Nigeria’s March BSI increases to 61.0 from a series-low of 57.9 in February • Output and orders rise to their highest levels since December 2014 • FX availability may yet emerge as a constraint on business sentiment...

  • Kenya – March BSI: Positive expectations - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    Kenya’s BSI rebounds strongly in March to 60.6 from 47.0 in February • Sentiment is more positive across the board – 12 of the 15 current conditions indicators rose in March • Kenyan demand is accelerating; both production and new orders rise str...

  • Investors in Mexico are cautiously optimistic - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    Mexican investors are moderately positive on the domestic economy and the MXN outlook • Investors expect a pick-up in US growth to benefit Mexico; USD-MXN seen at 15.00-15.25 at end-2015 • Lower oil prices – in the context of FDI concerns – were c...

  • 31-Mar – BoJ’s Tankan likely to show a mixed picture - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • UK – We expect the manufacturing PMI to have improved further • South Korea – CPI inflation was likely low; trade surplus likely increased • China – Manufacturing sector likely remained sluggish in March • Market focus • Bo...

  • Euro area – If Greece leaves, can Portugal stay? - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    Glacial progress on reform and rising deposit flight raise the risk of Greece leaving the euro • Current ultra-low yields are not pricing in any contagion risk, but Grexit would challenge this view • We look at risks for Portugal, which would mov...

  • Commodity roadmap - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    • Focus: Power demand in Saudi Arabia is likely to reduce oil exports over the next two quarters • Rebound in China’s SME confidence points to improving metal supply-chain activity in March • Oil prices spiked higher briefly following Saudi-led ai...



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01-Apr – US – The payroll/GDP debate

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to have remained weak • Turkey – Headline CPI likely eased in March • FX – Our forecasts for 2015 and 2016 • Market focus • We look for a moderation in payroll growth: our forecast is 230,000 • Wage growth remains key for the timing of...

In Media

Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.