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  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads – 27 February – 5 March 2015 - Updated Fri March 6, 2015

    The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 27 February to 5 March 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads: CNY – The real story on CNY weakness Oil Not...

  • Asia data previews – 6-13 March 2015 - Updated Fri March 6, 2015

    China’s growth indices likely to continue the downtrend; deflationary pressures are rising • India’s CPI inflation likely stayed benign in February, fuelling expectations of more rate cuts • We expect the RBNZ, BoK and BoT to keep policy rates on ...

  • Euro area: Brave new world - Updated Thu March 5, 2015

    Easy money, cheap energy and a competitive euro should boost growth; the ECB is bullish • We revise up 2015 euro-area GDP and see above-trend growth in 2016 as ECB QE gains traction • Diverging ECB-Fed policy will continue to weigh on the euro; we...

  • Thermal coal – Early signs of production discipline - Updated Thu March 5, 2015

    Recent Newcastle coal price strength is likely due to bad weather and upcoming annual negotiations • We think current strong prices are unsustainable; we expect a decline in Q2 • Higher-cost producers in Australia plan to lower production targets,...

  • China – NPC sets official growth target at ‘about 7%’ - Updated Thu March 5, 2015

    Official c.7% target is lowest since 1999; more policy stimulus likely as officials see rising headwinds • Budget deficit target lifted to 2.3% of GDP; monetary policy stance to be accommodative • Financial reforms – such as interest rate libera...

  • Thailand – Significant beneficiary of lower oil prices - Updated Thu March 5, 2015

    Falling global oil prices should boost growth, lower inflation, and lead to a current account surplus • However, we cut our 2015 GDP growth forecast to 5.1% to reflect delayed execution of public investment • We now expect the BoT to stay on hold ...

  • 05-Mar – US focus: From payrolls to pay rise - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Elevated TWD NEER to weigh on the TWD • South Korea – We expect a BoK rate cut in Q2-2015 • Malaysia – Exports likely slowed in January • Market focus • We see NFPs at 230,000 from 257,000 and unemployment at 5.6% ...

  • Canada – BoC in no rush to cut further - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    The BoC left its overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected; the statement was neutral • Q4 GDP was resilient, and we raise slightly our 2015 growth forecast, but still see a shallow recession • We expect a 25bps rate cut on 15 April a...

  • India – More rate cuts to come, but not soon - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    RBI surprises by delivering another inter-meeting repo rate cut to 7.50% We no longer expect a rate cut at the April policy meeting, as additional information is unlikely by then We now expect the next cuts in June and August; inter-meeting action...

  • South Korea – We expect a rate cut in Q2-2015 - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    Policy makers have indicated a rate cut is not imminent; BoK likely to keep rates on hold on 12 March Rate-cut pressure is building on negative data trend and easing by major central banks We now expect a rate cut in Q2-2015, versus our previous f...



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05-Mar – US focus: From payrolls to pay rise

Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Elevated TWD NEER to weigh on the TWD • South Korea – We expect a BoK rate cut in Q2-2015 • Malaysia – Exports likely slowed in January • Market focus • We see NFPs at 230,000 from 257,000 and unemployment at 5.6% • The Fed may remove ‘patient’ from its...

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