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  • Global trade unbundled - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Expanding supply chains and increased openness drove rapid trade growth in past decades • But trade has been weak since the 2008-09 crisis; there is talk of a structural slowdown • We believe the outlook is improving and trade will soon grow fas...

  • Estimating EM local fund beta - Updated Fri November 1, 2013

    • We previously analysed aggregate foreign positioning in local currency in SC FIRST, assessed our own data sources for a more accurate fund-flow analysis, and generated insights on foreign-investor heterogeneity • We can now generate insights on d...

  • Venezuela – Political inflection point - Updated Wed December 12, 2012

    • For the first time, President Chavez has designated a successor • His announcement leads Venezuela into another period of political uncertainty • Any adjustment to the exchange rate is likely to be delayed as a result of the unclear political b...

  • Venezuela – Overestimating opposition prospects - Updated Tue May 22, 2012

    • Markets are obsessed with the health of President Hugo Chavez and the potential electoral outcomes • Recent polls show Chavez leading opposition candidate Henrique Capriles • The government’s candidate benefits from the power of the purse, and c...

  • Latin America – Five key questions - Updated Wed April 25, 2012

    • Internal dynamics to exert greater influence on regional credit, FX and rates markets • While global factors still weigh, several countries face major inflection points • We detail the five key topics that should drive asset prices in five majo...

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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.