• You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation at 9:00 PM GMT on Thursday 22 January 2015 (with Q&A) with:
• Thomas Kikis, Head of Global Corporate Sales, Americas (host)
• Sarah Hewin, Head of UK and Euro...
• New allocations charts show ongoing short-covering that will continue to support Thai bonds and FX
• Direction signal back to positive: add new long 5Y THB bonds vs pay 5Y swaps
• Spread signal shifts down to neutral, supporting low-yield bonds ...
• Risks of an El Niño event have risen, with potentially damaging consequences for some crop yields
• Our studies show global CPO stocks to be the most vulnerable to an El Niño event in the 2014/15 season
• Such an event could elevate inflation ...
Expanding supply chains and increased openness drove rapid trade growth in past decades
• But trade has been weak since the 2008-09 crisis; there is talk of a structural slowdown
• We believe the outlook is improving and trade will soon grow fas...
South African bonds are well placed to benefit from the new and strongly positive EM bond signals
• Our directional signal has now turned positive: investors in aggregate are now buying, not selling
• Our spread signal has now turned positive, s...
• We previously analysed aggregate foreign positioning in local currency in SC FIRST, assessed our own data sources for a more accurate fund-flow analysis, and generated insights on foreign-investor heterogeneity
• We can now generate insights on d...
•Direction signal stays negative, in line with our overall views: EM bond yields to go higher
• Spread signal turns from negative to neutral: in high yielders, sell IDR bonds, buy NGN bonds
• Relative value signals are bearish Asian bonds: sell...
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