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  • 18-May – MPC to focus on Nigeria FX decision - Updated Sun May 17, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – CPI likely to match flash at 0.0% y/y • UK – CPI inflation likely turned negative in April • Mexico – Banxico biding its time • Market focus • Nigeria MPC to announce monetary policy decision on Tuesday 19 May ...

  • 30-Apr – Fed data-watching continues - Updated Wed April 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing sector likely still under pressure • South Korea – April trade probably softened further • Mexico – Banxico likely to hold back, awaiting the Fed’s move • Market focus • Fed statement noted recent weak...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • Investors in Mexico are cautiously optimistic - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    Mexican investors are moderately positive on the domestic economy and the MXN outlook • Investors expect a pick-up in US growth to benefit Mexico; USD-MXN seen at 15.00-15.25 at end-2015 • Lower oil prices – in the context of FDI concerns – were c...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • ECB impact on emerging markets: First take - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation at 9:00 PM GMT on Thursday 22 January 2015 (with Q&A) with: • Thomas Kikis, Head of Global Corporate Sales, Americas (host) • Sarah Hewin, Head of UK and Euro...

  • Positive picks in Latam - Updated Wed January 21, 2015

    Latam headwinds include lower commodity prices, slowing global demand, and a stronger USD • For Mexico, some of these risks are priced in; we now expect a 25bps Banxico hike in June • Lower global yields are a near-term positive development for t...

  • Buy MXN-CLP - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    • Copper prices have fallen sharply this week, revealing a relative-value opportunity in Latam FX • Relative fundamentals and positioning are bullish MXN-CLP; we revise USD-CLP forecasts higher • We recommend buying MXN-CLP via 3M forward/NDF outr...

  • SC FIRST – EM losing the game of patience - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Fed will be patient but EM investors are not; outflows are channelling through more liquid bond markets • While overall flows reflect the Fed story, relative flows show the lower oil story still captures mindshare • Stressed markets care about e...

  • 05-Dec – US: No wage gain, no UST pain - Updated Thu December 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade surplus likely widened in November on weak imports • Japan – Q3 GDP likely to be revised up; C/A surplus likely narrowed • Mexico – Weakening MXN should keep Banxico on hold • Market focus • Our November NFP f...



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Trade idea

18-May – MPC to focus on Nigeria FX decision

Top 3 data/events • Euro area – CPI likely to match flash at 0.0% y/y • UK – CPI inflation likely turned negative in April • Mexico – Banxico biding its time • Market focus • Nigeria MPC to announce monetary policy decision on Tuesday 19 May • FX market liberalisation, rather than...

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