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  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • Investors in Mexico are cautiously optimistic - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    Mexican investors are moderately positive on the domestic economy and the MXN outlook • Investors expect a pick-up in US growth to benefit Mexico; USD-MXN seen at 15.00-15.25 at end-2015 • Lower oil prices – in the context of FDI concerns – were c...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • ECB impact on emerging markets: First take - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation at 9:00 PM GMT on Thursday 22 January 2015 (with Q&A) with: • Thomas Kikis, Head of Global Corporate Sales, Americas (host) • Sarah Hewin, Head of UK and Euro...

  • Positive picks in Latam - Updated Wed January 21, 2015

    Latam headwinds include lower commodity prices, slowing global demand, and a stronger USD • For Mexico, some of these risks are priced in; we now expect a 25bps Banxico hike in June • Lower global yields are a near-term positive development for t...

  • Buy MXN-CLP - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    • Copper prices have fallen sharply this week, revealing a relative-value opportunity in Latam FX • Relative fundamentals and positioning are bullish MXN-CLP; we revise USD-CLP forecasts higher • We recommend buying MXN-CLP via 3M forward/NDF outr...

  • SC FIRST – EM losing the game of patience - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Fed will be patient but EM investors are not; outflows are channelling through more liquid bond markets • While overall flows reflect the Fed story, relative flows show the lower oil story still captures mindshare • Stressed markets care about e...

  • 05-Dec – US: No wage gain, no UST pain - Updated Thu December 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade surplus likely widened in November on weak imports • Japan – Q3 GDP likely to be revised up; C/A surplus likely narrowed • Mexico – Weakening MXN should keep Banxico on hold • Market focus • Our November NFP f...

  • 20-Nov – Latam FX: More USD pain - Updated Wed November 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – October inflation was likely driven by fuel-subsidy cuts • Vietnam – Inflation likely continued to trend lower in November • US – Falling oil prices add to low underlying inflation pressures • Market focus • This...

  • 31-Oct – Weaker MXN to keep Banxico on hold - Updated Thu October 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI introduces regulation on hedging foreign-currency debt • China – No improvement in the manufacturing sector expected • US – Low wage growth and soft inflation to keep the Fed patient • Market focus • We expe...

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