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  • 20-Mar – Colombia's gain is other EMs' pain - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Further heavy corporate FX selling in February • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain on an uptrend • Mexico – Our MFCI still shows tight monetary conditions • Market focus • Colombia’s weight in EM bond indices w...

  • 12-Dec – China’s on/offshore liquidity contrast - Updated Wed December 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Retail sales likely contracted at a slower pace in October • US – Robust auto sales likely boosted holiday retail sales • Latam – A busy day across the region on Thursday • Market focus • Central Economic Work ...

  • 05-Nov – Losing sight of the forest for the trees - Updated Wed December 4, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Trade activity likely picked up in October • Germany – October factory orders expected to have turned down • Mexico – Progress on energy reform; Banxico expected to stand pat • Market focus • Underlying US growt...

  • 21-Nov – Trip notes: European corporates - Updated Wed November 20, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Germany – Ifo trends up, but recent weaker data highlights uncertainty • Mexico – We revise our 2013 growth forecast to 1.4% from 2.3% • US – Initial jobless claims likely trended lower • Market focus • European exporters a...

  • 30-Oct – Fed tapering: See you again, but next year - Updated Tue October 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Economic conditions likely improved in September • Japan – Markets will watch the BoJ’s semi-annual economic review • Mexico – We take profit on our 5Y TIIE receiver • Market focus • The Fed is expected to k...

  • 25-Oct – China’s tight liquidity likely to be short-lived - Updated Thu October 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – LEI index likely to suggest economy is gaining momentum • Mexico – Banxico expected to cut, BanRep to hold • US – Solid manufacturing PMI and aircraft orders signal rising DGO • Market focus • China money-market r...

  • 17-Oct – Asia’s safe havens - Updated Wed October 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – GDP growth likely picked up, policy expected to be on hold • Mexico – MXN likely to lead Latam FX on US debt deal • US – The shutdown impact may be reflected in jobless claims • Market focus • CNY is Asia’s safe-hav...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 11-Sep – Asia policy on hold; recovery seen in H2 - Updated Tue September 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely edged higher to 5.8% in August • Japan – Core machinery orders likely rebounded in July • Mexico – Banxico delivers a cut and may not be done • Market focus • We expect the BoK, BI, BSP ...

  • 14-Aug – BI likely to hike rates on inflation risks - Updated Tue August 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Solid remittance growth expected for June • Singapore – Motor vehicles likely dragged down June retail sales • Mexico – The long-awaited step in the right direction • Market focus • We expect BI to raise the ...

  • 12-Jul – Revised G10 FX forecasts and weightings [Correction] - Updated Fri July 12, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 12 July 2013. Page 2, includes Figure 1, FX forecasts. • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Rebound in remittance flow likely continued • Mexico – We raise our short-term MXN weighting to Neutral • US – Fed memb...

  • 03-Jul – There’s a new sheriff in town - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Signal from SIGMA remains bearish on GoISecs • United States – Interest rates on student debt: a deal is still possible • Mexico – Correlation breakdown • Market focus • We expect the ECB and BoE to keep policy on ...

  • Mexico – Another cut is on the cards - Updated Fri May 31, 2013

    Our MFCI shows how much tighter conditions are since Q2-2012, mainly on the stronger MXN • Banxico cut rates in April to curb MXN appreciation, and we think it will cut again • Lower rates make sense both because of vast global liquidity, and weak...

  • Mexico – On the right track - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    Growth will moderate slightly in 2013; inflation remains in check • An undervalued MXN has boosted competitiveness significantly • The new administration seems willing to push for important reforms ...

  • 15-Apr – Revised G10 FX forecasts, weightings - Updated Sun April 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Deflationary pressures might raise a few ECB eyebrows • Germany – ZEW survey may attest to fading investor optimism • Latin America – We revise our forecasts for USD-MXN, USD-COP • Market focus • We revise mode...

  • 18-Feb-13 – BoT rate cut to support recovery - Updated Sun February 17, 2013

    Top 2 data/events • Euro area – German ZEW survey may disappoint • Mexico – Steady growth, stable monetary conditions • Market focus • Downside risks to growth to weigh on the BoT’s decision on 20 February • We expect the BoT to cut its polic...

  • 26-Oct-12 – NEA to outperform as China stabilises - Updated Thu October 25, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Retail sales growth is likely to have slowed • Latin America – Banxico to stay put, BanRep possibly preparing to cut • United States – Growth is looking better, but not inspiring • Market focus • We look for further...

  • Mexico – Banxico seems on perma-hold - Updated Thu October 11, 2012

    Despite the recent spike in headline inflation, we look for no change to monetary policy near-term • Recent currency strength is a function of global liquidity conditions • New government is likely to push a reform agenda in 2013, focused on energ...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

  • 20-Jul-12 – The impact of the DM dynamic on EM - Updated Thu July 19, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation continues to fall • Taiwan – Production and hiring is likely to have slowed in June • Mexico – Banxico is expected to remain on hold • Market focus • ECB deposit-rate cut fuels revival in demand for ...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.