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  • SC FIRST – High-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    • Direction and spread signals are both positive for the second consecutive month • Stay Positive on South Africa, but stay Neutral on Indonesia, due to valuations and fundamentals • Colombia should receive hefty bond inflows in the months to co...

  • 28-Mar – Time to embrace the sales-tax hike - Updated Thu March 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Downward price pressures pose a conundrum for the ECB • US – February core PCE inflation to remain stable at 1.1% y/y • Colombia – We reiterate our Overweight FX rating on the COP • Market focus • Tankan survey ...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 10Y South African bonds - Updated Fri March 14, 2014

    South African bonds are well placed to benefit from the new and strongly positive EM bond signals • Our directional signal has now turned positive: investors in aggregate are now buying, not selling • Our spread signal has now turned positive, s...

  • 19-Dec – That giant sucking sound - Updated Thu December 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ likely to maintain the asset purchase programme • UK – Final print to confirm Q3 GDP growth at 0.8% • Colombia – BanRep expected to be on hold at 3.25%, but tone is dovish • Market focus • Surprising USD 10b...

  • Estimating EM local fund beta - Updated Fri November 1, 2013

    • We previously analysed aggregate foreign positioning in local currency in SC FIRST, assessed our own data sources for a more accurate fund-flow analysis, and generated insights on foreign-investor heterogeneity • We can now generate insights on d...

  • 19-Sep – QE: A stay of execution - Updated Wed September 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – RBI to maintain a cautious approach • Euro area – Consumer pessimism continues to fade in September • Colombia – Q2 GDP to strengthen • Market focus • A dovish September meeting: no QE tapering, rising fears of low...

  • SC FIRST – Still bearish; sell IDR, PHP, THB bonds - Updated Thu July 11, 2013

    •Direction signal stays negative, in line with our overall views: EM bond yields to go higher • Spread signal turns from negative to neutral: in high yielders, sell IDR bonds, buy NGN bonds • Relative value signals are bearish Asian bonds: sell...

  • 26-Oct-12 – NEA to outperform as China stabilises - Updated Thu October 25, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Retail sales growth is likely to have slowed • Latin America – Banxico to stay put, BanRep possibly preparing to cut • United States – Growth is looking better, but not inspiring • Market focus • We look for further...

  • 27-Jul-12 – US Q2 GDP – The big payback - Updated Thu July 26, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Colombia – BanRep set to cut its policy rate in August • Japan – Industrial production data to show waning growth momentum • Vietnam – Likelihood of a further rate cut has diminished • Market focus • US Q2 weakness should b...

  • Colombia – Banco de la República on hold - Updated Mon April 30, 2012

    Event • As we and the market expected, Colombia’s central bank held the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25% at today’s monetary policy meeting. In its statement, Banco de la República (BanRep) highlighted that 2012 growth should be between 4% and 6%...



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28-Mar – Time to embrace the sales-tax hike

Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Downward price pressures pose a conundrum for the ECB • US – February core PCE inflation to remain stable at 1.1% y/y • Colombia – We reiterate our Overweight FX rating on the COP • Market focus • Tankan survey is likely to show improvement in the current...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.