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  • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    We stay Neutral on Indonesian rates risk; we examine one of the positive external influences • New data shows a strong link between Russian, Turkish outflows and Indonesian inflows in Q1-2014 • The benefits for Indonesia, which we expect to conti...

  • 02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely c...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 10Y South African bonds - Updated Fri March 14, 2014

    South African bonds are well placed to benefit from the new and strongly positive EM bond signals • Our directional signal has now turned positive: investors in aggregate are now buying, not selling • Our spread signal has now turned positive, s...

  • 26-Feb – EM-21: Bearish GBP, bullish CAD - Updated Tue February 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Decline in leading indicators index is probably temporary • Euro area – Weak lending data takes the shine off sentiment surveys • Brazil – COPOM’s hiking cycle: The end is near • Market focus • EM-21 central-bank ...

  • 24-Feb – Brazil: The BCB’s juggling act - Updated Sun February 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely widened on stronger import growth • Hong Kong – Export data was likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Vietnam – February data expected to be distorted by Lunar New Year • Market focus • We...

  • 20-Feb – Fed QE taper on auto pilot - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Steady inflation continues • Brazil – All eyes on January’s balance of payments data • Chile – What lies beneath • Market focus • January’s minutes show that the bar to pause Fed QE tapering remains very high ...

  • Brazil – Doves, hawks and opportunists - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    We think the COPOM will deliver a 50bps hike at its 15 January meeting, and end the cycle in February • Elevated inflation, deteriorating fiscal accounts and the risk of a downgrade all call for a tougher BCB • We recommend that investors open a J...

  • 12-Dec – China’s on/offshore liquidity contrast - Updated Wed December 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Retail sales likely contracted at a slower pace in October • US – Robust auto sales likely boosted holiday retail sales • Latam – A busy day across the region on Thursday • Market focus • Central Economic Work ...

  • 03-Dec – Trip notes: Hong Kong investors - Updated Mon December 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – No more negotiations to end anti-government protests • Australia – Q3 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Brazil – Growth expected to show a contraction in Q3 • Market focus • HK investors are b...

  • 27-Nov – Fine-tuning our G10 FX and Africa forecasts - Updated Tue November 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q3 • Africa – Adjusting some of our FX and rates forecasts • Brazil – COPOM to deliver another 50bps hike; minutes are in focus • Market focus • We are adjusting selected ...

  • 06-Nov – Political uncertainty returns to Thailand - Updated Tue November 5, 2013

    3 data/events • Australia – Job data likely deteriorated slightly in September • Taiwan – October exports should provide insight into year-end demand • Brazil – Stopped out of our Jan-16 DI receiver • Market focus • Thailand’s path to sustaine...

  • 09-Oct – BoK – Keep calm and wait - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • UK – BoE MPC to maintain its stance after digesting recent data • Brazil – COPOM to keep the tightening pace of 50bps on Wednesday • United States – Fed minutes must be read in the light of the shutdown • Market focus • We ...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Latam – Time to receive - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    We changed our QE tapering call to March 2014 after the Fed backtracked at September’s meeting • In Mexico, we take profits on our 2Y TIIE receiver at 4.08% after 50bps of gains • We recommend that investors receive 5Y TIIE at 5.19%; targeting 4...

  • Brazil – Two BoP snapshots - Updated Tue September 17, 2013

    Brazil’s external accounts have deteriorated significantly since 2010 • Stronger imports pressured the C/A, while weaker portfolio inflows hit capital and financial accounts • A weaker BRL may improve the external accounts, which we expect to trou...

  • 27-Aug – AXJ FX to fall further, but no crisis - Updated Mon August 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Rates – New 20Y SGS to fetch 3.3-3.4%, drive 20/30Y slope steeper • US – Home prices are still rising, but consumer confidence cools • Brazil – We expect the COPOM to accelerate pace of hikes to 75bps • Market focus • CA de...

  • 15-Aug – USTs range-bound until Sep FOMC meeting - Updated Wed August 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Q2 GDP should reflect resilience from within • Singapore – NODX rebound likely to support GDP growth • Brazil – Receive Jan-15 DI • Market focus • We expect the 10Y UST yield to map out a 2.50-2.75% range over ...

  • Brazil – Too tight - Updated Thu August 1, 2013

    Our Jan-15 DI receiver recommendation was stopped out mainly due to external market dynamics • Our view of a relatively short hiking cycle in Brazil contrasts with the market’s more hawkish view • US non-farm payrolls on Friday will likely provid...

  • Brazil – COPOM is almost there - Updated Thu July 18, 2013

    Even though the BCB is vigilant about inflation, weak growth may prevent COPOM from hiking too much • We recommended that investors open a Jan-15 receiver; target: 8.90%, stop-loss: 9.65%, entry 9.38% • We also recommend a Jan-14xJan-15 DI flat...

  • SC FIRST – Still bearish; sell IDR, PHP, THB bonds - Updated Thu July 11, 2013

    •Direction signal stays negative, in line with our overall views: EM bond yields to go higher • Spread signal turns from negative to neutral: in high yielders, sell IDR bonds, buy NGN bonds • Relative value signals are bearish Asian bonds: sell...



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02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations

Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely continue to blame low inflation on energy...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.