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  • 21-Jan – ECB QE: Questions and answers - Updated Tue January 20, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation should have stayed elevated in December • Brazil – BCB is in tightening mode • Canada – Falling oil prices to cast a dovish shadow over BoC meeting • Market focus • A sovereign QE announcement looks l...

  • SC FIRST – EM losing the game of patience - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Fed will be patient but EM investors are not; outflows are channelling through more liquid bond markets • While overall flows reflect the Fed story, relative flows show the lower oil story still captures mindshare • Stressed markets care about e...

  • 03-Dec – ECB watches and waits for deflation - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Canada – BoC firmly in ‘wait and see’ mode as oil prices fall • US – ISM non-manufacturing index scrutinised ahead of payrolls • Brazil – We expect the BCB to deliver a 25bps hike • Market focus • New ECB forecasts likely ...

  • Americas – Contemplating change - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Major policy changes are in store, starting with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in Q3-2015 • Brazil is set to undergo a significant policy overhaul with emphasis on boosting fiscal and monetary credibility • Drop in oil prices is a key...

  • SC FIRST – Lower oil prices, higher flows to EM debt - Updated Wed November 26, 2014

    Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve • Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil • October fund allocations reflect ...

  • 20-Nov – Latam FX: More USD pain - Updated Wed November 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – October inflation was likely driven by fuel-subsidy cuts • Vietnam – Inflation likely continued to trend lower in November • US – Falling oil prices add to low underlying inflation pressures • Market focus • This...

  • 29-Oct – SAR move overdone, retracement likely - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Industrial production expected to pick up • RBNZ likely to extend its pause, keeping rates at 3.50% • Brazil – COPOM likely to sit tight for now • Market focus • The spike in USD-SAR activity has been on outf...

  • SC FIRST – Structural flows favour Asia - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt; EM FX weakness puts pressure on EM bonds • Structural investors continue to favour Asia bonds; hard data supports Korea and Indonesia • Flow rotation continues from Russia, Turkey and So...

  • 28-Oct – Brazil: Dilma’s chance to change her tune - Updated Mon October 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Asia macro trackers – Philippines growth, current account heating up • Japan – Industrial production likely rebounded in September • US – Aircrafts orders likely to support September’s durable goods • Market focus • Dilma ...

  • 07-Oct – Brazil: To a run-off we go - Updated Mon October 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A surplus likely shrank in August • China – CNH discount likely to narrow after the Golden Week holiday • United States – FOMC minutes likely hawkish • Market focus • Brazil’s presidential elections will go to a ...

  • 02-Oct – Brazil: The irrepressible Dilma - Updated Wed October 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – New parliament members inaugurated • Japan – Q3 Tankan survey results will likely reduce pressure on BoJ • UK – We expect UK composite PMI to decrease • Market focus • First-round voting on 5 October may not pr...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 5Y THB bonds vs pay 5Y swaps - Updated Thu July 17, 2014

    • New allocations charts show ongoing short-covering that will continue to support Thai bonds and FX • Direction signal back to positive: add new long 5Y THB bonds vs pay 5Y swaps • Spread signal shifts down to neutral, supporting low-yield bonds ...

  • 10-Jul – Indonesia election update - Updated Wed July 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Credit growth will likely stabilise from here • India – May IIP likely reached a 15-month high • Latam – Tough times, easing bias • Market focus • Quick-count results suggest a Jokowi victory, albeit by a narrow ma...

  • 05-Jun – Scaling back KRW in favour of THB - Updated Wed June 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Positive export demand for commodities and electronics • Iron ore – Credit tightness justifies more price declines • Brazil – COPOM minutes likely to reaffirm rates on hold for now • Market focus • Short THB vs....

  • 29-May – The long shadow of US Q1 GDP data - Updated Wed May 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – April data to reflect reaction to sales-tax hike • China – USD-CNH approaches the year’s highs • Brazil – Q1 expected to show a weak start to 2014 • Market focus • Revised US Q1 GDP data could resuscitate fears a...

  • 28-May – INR short-term weighting cut to Neutral - Updated Tue May 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q1 • South Korea – IP growth in April was likely backed by strong exports • Brazil – COPOM is probably done for now • Market focus • Reserve Bank of India has acted vigorou...

  • SC FIRST– Staying long, still favouring carry - Updated Thu May 8, 2014

    Direction and spread signals stay positive for the third consecutive month • These signals support our view that EM yields will fall and high-yielders will outperform • Relative-value signals support our positive Thai 5Y bonds and Overweight COP F...

  • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    We stay Neutral on Indonesian rates risk; we examine one of the positive external influences • New data shows a strong link between Russian, Turkish outflows and Indonesian inflows in Q1-2014 • The benefits for Indonesia, which we expect to conti...

  • 02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely c...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 10Y South African bonds - Updated Fri March 14, 2014

    South African bonds are well placed to benefit from the new and strongly positive EM bond signals • Our directional signal has now turned positive: investors in aggregate are now buying, not selling • Our spread signal has now turned positive, s...



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