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  • 26-Mar – US escape velocity – Not this year either - Updated Wed March 25, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Monitoring indicators index to remain in the ‘green’ zone • Japan – We expect slower inflation, rebounding retail sales in February • Brazil – The end of an era in FX intervention • Market focus • Except for payrol...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • 03-Mar – China’s political meetings in focus - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data to show pick-up in economic activity • Brazil – Tightening mode for now • Canada – BoC took out insurance in Jan; may wait now, then cut again • Market focus • China’s all-important annual NPC an...

  • 21-Jan – ECB QE: Questions and answers - Updated Tue January 20, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation should have stayed elevated in December • Brazil – BCB is in tightening mode • Canada – Falling oil prices to cast a dovish shadow over BoC meeting • Market focus • A sovereign QE announcement looks l...

  • SC FIRST – EM losing the game of patience - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Fed will be patient but EM investors are not; outflows are channelling through more liquid bond markets • While overall flows reflect the Fed story, relative flows show the lower oil story still captures mindshare • Stressed markets care about e...

  • 03-Dec – ECB watches and waits for deflation - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Canada – BoC firmly in ‘wait and see’ mode as oil prices fall • US – ISM non-manufacturing index scrutinised ahead of payrolls • Brazil – We expect the BCB to deliver a 25bps hike • Market focus • New ECB forecasts likely ...

  • Americas – Contemplating change - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Major policy changes are in store, starting with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in Q3-2015 • Brazil is set to undergo a significant policy overhaul with emphasis on boosting fiscal and monetary credibility • Drop in oil prices is a key...

  • SC FIRST – Lower oil prices, higher flows to EM debt - Updated Wed November 26, 2014

    Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve • Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil • October fund allocations reflect ...

  • 20-Nov – Latam FX: More USD pain - Updated Wed November 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – October inflation was likely driven by fuel-subsidy cuts • Vietnam – Inflation likely continued to trend lower in November • US – Falling oil prices add to low underlying inflation pressures • Market focus • This...

  • 29-Oct – SAR move overdone, retracement likely - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Industrial production expected to pick up • RBNZ likely to extend its pause, keeping rates at 3.50% • Brazil – COPOM likely to sit tight for now • Market focus • The spike in USD-SAR activity has been on outf...



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26-Mar – US escape velocity – Not this...

Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Monitoring indicators index to remain in the ‘green’ zone • Japan – We expect slower inflation, rebounding retail sales in February • Brazil – The end of an era in FX intervention • Market focus • Except for payrolls, US data has generally disappointed so...

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