First-round voting on 5 October may not produce a winner; a second-round vote is likely on 26 October
• President Dilma has retaken the lead in recent polls and the BRL remains the regional underperformer
• Marina’s inability to consolidate early ...
Eduardo Campos’ (PSB) death has turned Brazil’s presidential elections upside down
• Marina Silva’s confirmation as the PSB’s candidate has dramatically increased its chances of victory
• We expect a positive market response to a Marina Silva wi...
• We recently revised our 2014 GDP growth forecast down to 1.8%, and our IPCA projection up to 6.3%
• But our growth forecast remains above-consensus, as we expect a boost from global growth
• The BCB is done, for now; we expect more hikes after t...
Argentina’s economic crisis is not over; USD-ARS and local rates are likely to move higher
• Inflation is expected to spike, and the economy to contract; this is bad news for Brazil
• The trade links between Brazil and Argentina are significant
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
Most of the coincident and leading indicators point to Q2-2013 being as weak as Q1-2013
• Additionally, the breakdown of key indicators suggests H2-2013 will be worse than initially thought
• We lower our GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.2% from ...
Temporarily weaker oil output and a continued global slowdown will likely pressure the BoP in 2013
• External accounts should trough in 2013, with continued improvement from 2014 onwards
• By 2020, Brazil’s oil and derivatives production is set t...
We expect stronger but moderate growth in 2013
• Inflation will remain a concern and monetary policy will be tighter
• The reform agenda remains light as 2014 elections approach...
Growth is still expected to improve in 2013; however, we revise lower our projection to 3.2% from 3.8%
• Inflation dynamics are worrisome, even though we expect headline IPCA to slow in H2-2013
• We think the BCB needs to hike rates; however, mark...
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