Argentina’s economic crisis is not over; USD-ARS and local rates are likely to move higher
• Inflation is expected to spike, and the economy to contract; this is bad news for Brazil
• The trade links between Brazil and Argentina are significant
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
Most of the coincident and leading indicators point to Q2-2013 being as weak as Q1-2013
• Additionally, the breakdown of key indicators suggests H2-2013 will be worse than initially thought
• We lower our GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.2% from ...
Temporarily weaker oil output and a continued global slowdown will likely pressure the BoP in 2013
• External accounts should trough in 2013, with continued improvement from 2014 onwards
• By 2020, Brazil’s oil and derivatives production is set t...
We expect stronger but moderate growth in 2013
• Inflation will remain a concern and monetary policy will be tighter
• The reform agenda remains light as 2014 elections approach...
Growth is still expected to improve in 2013; however, we revise lower our projection to 3.2% from 3.8%
• Inflation dynamics are worrisome, even though we expect headline IPCA to slow in H2-2013
• We think the BCB needs to hike rates; however, mark...
Growth will likely improve in 2013, but risks are to the downside; the supply-demand mismatch continues
• The government will seek alternative fiscal measures to manage inflation; BCB to avoid hiking in 2013
• We recommend a Jan-15 DI receiver pos...
Our meetings in Brazil left us with a less optimistic view on 2013 growth
• If GDP growth falters, we would not be surprised to see the SELIC rate fall further
• The BRL should continue to be range-bound in the near term
• We maintain our recomme...
We revise 2012 GDP growth lower to 1.5%, while maintaining 2013 forecast at 4.1%
• We revise IPCA inflation slightly higher for 2012 and 2013 to 5.3% and 5.6%, respectively
• The minutes of the 10 October meeting show that the current rate-cutting...
Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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