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  • Argentina-Brazil: It takes two to tango - Updated Thu February 6, 2014

    Argentina’s economic crisis is not over; USD-ARS and local rates are likely to move higher • Inflation is expected to spike, and the economy to contract; this is bad news for Brazil • The trade links between Brazil and Argentina are significant ...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Brazil – Weaker growth for 2013 - Updated Wed July 17, 2013

    Most of the coincident and leading indicators point to Q2-2013 being as weak as Q1-2013 • Additionally, the breakdown of key indicators suggests H2-2013 will be worse than initially thought • We lower our GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.2% from ...

  • Brazil – BoP: Rain today, sun tomorrow - Updated Tue May 21, 2013

    Temporarily weaker oil output and a continued global slowdown will likely pressure the BoP in 2013 • External accounts should trough in 2013, with continued improvement from 2014 onwards • By 2020, Brazil’s oil and derivatives production is set t...

  • Brazil – Challenging times ahead - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    We expect stronger but moderate growth in 2013 • Inflation will remain a concern and monetary policy will be tighter • The reform agenda remains light as 2014 elections approach...

  • Brazil – BCB soon to shift gears again - Updated Thu March 21, 2013

    Growth is still expected to improve in 2013; however, we revise lower our projection to 3.2% from 3.8% • Inflation dynamics are worrisome, even though we expect headline IPCA to slow in H2-2013 • We think the BCB needs to hike rates; however, mark...

  • Brazil – Pushing inflation management to the limit - Updated Fri February 8, 2013

    Growth will likely improve in 2013, but risks are to the downside; the supply-demand mismatch continues • The government will seek alternative fiscal measures to manage inflation; BCB to avoid hiking in 2013 • We recommend a Jan-15 DI receiver pos...

  • Brazil – COPOM may not be done - Updated Tue November 6, 2012

    Our meetings in Brazil left us with a less optimistic view on 2013 growth • If GDP growth falters, we would not be surprised to see the SELIC rate fall further • The BRL should continue to be range-bound in the near term • We maintain our recomme...

  • Brazil – Downshifting to ‘perma-hold’ - Updated Fri October 19, 2012

    We revise 2012 GDP growth lower to 1.5%, while maintaining 2013 forecast at 4.1% • We revise IPCA inflation slightly higher for 2012 and 2013 to 5.3% and 5.6%, respectively • The minutes of the 10 October meeting show that the current rate-cutting...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

  • Brazil – Growth recovery gaining traction - Updated Wed August 29, 2012

    Local investors show increased optimism about both external and domestic conditions • Inflation is a source of uncertainty for 2013, rather than during 2012 • BCB tightly manages the BRL, which is expected to remain within the 2.00-2.10/USD range ...

  • Brazil – BoP support positive BRL outlook - Updated Mon August 13, 2012

    Our base-case scenario shows supportive flows in both merchandise and financial accounts of the BoP • Weaker global growth may hurt financial flows, but the outlook for FDI remains solid • This is because Brazil has significant pent-up demand for...

  • Brazil – COPOM is pushing the envelope - Updated Tue June 26, 2012

    The record-low SELIC rate should be adjusted even lower in the upcoming months • BCB is vindicated by sub-5% inflation, weaker-than-expected growth and the messy global backdrop • We expect the BCB to refrain from aggressive tightening in 2013, ev...

  • Brazil – BCB’s case is gaining strength - Updated Thu June 7, 2012

    Growth dynamics remain very disappointing; we revise down our GDP forecasts for 2012 and 2013 • While the inflation outlook remains benign for 2012, it may change in 2013 when activity picks up • Nonetheless, the government is eager to keep the S...

  • 30-May-12 – Another weak quarter for India - Updated Tue May 29, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • South Korea – Industrial production likely rose 1.0% m/m in April • Philippines – Resilient Q1 GDP • Brazil – COPOM in cutting mode, for now Market focus • India’s Q4-FY12 GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0%, the weakest si...

  • 24-May-12 – China leads the way - Updated Wed May 23, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – April industrial production likely rebounded • United States – Durable goods orders likely recovered in April • Brazil – BRL: Be careful what you wish for Market focus • China’s State Council’s statement signals ...

  • 17-May-12 – CNY flexibility amid China soft landing - Updated Wed May 16, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – The INR hits an all-time low versus the USD • Euro area – European Central Bank lifts Greek EMU exit taboo • Brazil – March retail sales likely rebounded Market focus • Fears of a China hard landing based on April r...

  • 09-May-12 – Picking up the pace in China - Updated Tue May 8, 2012

    Key events and data • Indonesia – BI to keep interest rates on hold • Philippines – Export growth to remain positive • South Korea – BoK to keep interest rates unchanged Market focus • China’s economy shows tentative signs of recovery, but dow...

  • 03-May-12 – Doves in Europe, hawks in Asia - Updated Wed May 2, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Singapore – April PMI should move further into expansionary territory • Philippines – CPI should tick marginally downwards • US – Payrolls to remain anaemic Market focus • ECB’s likely more dovish stance set to contr...

  • Brazil – This time could be different - Updated Fri April 27, 2012

    • Despite the current soft patch, the economy is expected to rebound in H2-2012 • Monetary policy is at an inflection point, and the BCB seems to be conducting a new experiment • Better infrastructure is a necessary condition for stronger long-ter...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.