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  • ECB impact on emerging markets: First take - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation at 9:00 PM GMT on Thursday 22 January 2015 (with Q&A) with: • Thomas Kikis, Head of Global Corporate Sales, Americas (host) • Sarah Hewin, Head of UK and Euro...

  • Americas – Contemplating change - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    Major policy changes are in store, starting with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in Q3-2015 • Brazil is set to undergo a significant policy overhaul with emphasis on boosting fiscal and monetary credibility • Drop in oil prices is a key...

  • 20-Nov – Latam FX: More USD pain - Updated Wed November 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – October inflation was likely driven by fuel-subsidy cuts • Vietnam – Inflation likely continued to trend lower in November • US – Falling oil prices add to low underlying inflation pressures • Market focus • This...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 5Y THB bonds vs pay 5Y swaps - Updated Thu July 17, 2014

    • New allocations charts show ongoing short-covering that will continue to support Thai bonds and FX • Direction signal back to positive: add new long 5Y THB bonds vs pay 5Y swaps • Spread signal shifts down to neutral, supporting low-yield bonds ...

  • 10-Jul – Indonesia election update - Updated Wed July 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Credit growth will likely stabilise from here • India – May IIP likely reached a 15-month high • Latam – Tough times, easing bias • Market focus • Quick-count results suggest a Jokowi victory, albeit by a narrow ma...

  • Latam – Hard times - Updated Wed July 2, 2014

    Mexico, Chile and Colombia have, for the most part, been promoting balanced economic policies • Argentina has moved in the opposite direction while Brazil is in danger of losing its way • When times are tough, bills hit hardest; Argentina is on...

  • El Niño – Blowing hot and cold on food markets - Updated Wed May 14, 2014

    • Risks of an El Niño event have risen, with potentially damaging consequences for some crop yields • Our studies show global CPO stocks to be the most vulnerable to an El Niño event in the 2014/15 season • Such an event could elevate inflation ...

  • Global trade unbundled - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Expanding supply chains and increased openness drove rapid trade growth in past decades • But trade has been weak since the 2008-09 crisis; there is talk of a structural slowdown • We believe the outlook is improving and trade will soon grow fas...

  • Argentina-Brazil: It takes two to tango - Updated Thu February 6, 2014

    Argentina’s economic crisis is not over; USD-ARS and local rates are likely to move higher • Inflation is expected to spike, and the economy to contract; this is bad news for Brazil • The trade links between Brazil and Argentina are significant ...

  • 29-Jan – Preparing for Japan’s sales-tax hike - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q4 • New Zealand – We expect RBNZ to leave rate unchanged at a low 2.50% • Argentina – We raise our USD-ARS forecasts • Market focus • December data is likely to show earl...

  • 24-Jan – RBI looks likely to extend the pause - Updated Thu January 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Annual trade deficit likely widened in 2013 • Argentina – A rude awakening • Germany – Ifo survey likely to reflect a sharp rise in business activity • Market focus • Significant reduction in headline CPI, weak gro...

  • Estimating EM local fund beta - Updated Fri November 1, 2013

    • We previously analysed aggregate foreign positioning in local currency in SC FIRST, assessed our own data sources for a more accurate fund-flow analysis, and generated insights on foreign-investor heterogeneity • We can now generate insights on d...



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