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  • 29-Jan – Preparing for Japan’s sales-tax hike - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q4 • New Zealand – We expect RBNZ to leave rate unchanged at a low 2.50% • Argentina – We raise our USD-ARS forecasts • Market focus • December data is likely to show earl...

  • 24-Jan – RBI looks likely to extend the pause - Updated Thu January 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Annual trade deficit likely widened in 2013 • Argentina – A rude awakening • Germany – Ifo survey likely to reflect a sharp rise in business activity • Market focus • Significant reduction in headline CPI, weak gro...

  • Latin American FX update - Updated Tue October 2, 2012

    We recently revised our Latam FX forecasts in the wake of the Fed’s QE3 policy announcement • While QE has historically been positive for Latam currencies, we observe clear diminishing returns • Regional central banks will fight USD weakness, exc...

  • Argentina – Unpredictable policy mix likely to persist - Updated Wed June 27, 2012

    Economic backdrop is worsening, with stagflation in view in the months ahead • Public-sector financing needs appear manageable in the short term • We do not expect a major one-off devaluation, although worries persist about an official dual FX sys...

  • Latin American FX update - Updated Thu June 7, 2012

    The ‘flight-to-quality’ bias leaves Latin American currencies underperformers versus the USD • Sluggish global outlook, weak commodity prices, dovish rate bias suggest further FX weakness in Q3 • As Greek risks intensify, global central banks are ...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.