Argentina’s economic crisis is not over; USD-ARS and local rates are likely to move higher
• Inflation is expected to spike, and the economy to contract; this is bad news for Brazil
• The trade links between Brazil and Argentina are significant
Economic backdrop is worsening, with stagflation in view in the months ahead
• Public-sector financing needs appear manageable in the short term
• We do not expect a major one-off devaluation, although worries persist about an official dual FX sys...
• Internal dynamics to exert greater influence on regional credit, FX and rates markets
• While global factors still weigh, several countries face major inflection points
• We detail the five key topics that should drive asset prices in five majo...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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