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  • 24-Apr – Awaiting another surprise from the BoJ - Updated Thu April 23, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Beware excessive euphoria • United States – Durable goods to show still-strong industry headwinds • Oil – US oil production set to fall heavily • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to add at least JPY10tn to the ass...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • 25-Nov – OPEC output cuts expected - Updated Mon November 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely accelerated in Q3 • Singapore – IP likely improved in October • United States – Q3 GDP may be revised slightly down in second print • Market focus • OPEC meets this week, with output cuts on...

  • What our Middle East clients think - Updated Mon November 24, 2014

    The audience at our Global Research Briefing events was broadly positive about the 2015 outlook • The geopolitical backdrop was the principal source of concern • Our clients in the region were evenly split about the outlook for GCC inflation and o...

  • 15-Oct – Lower oil prices and EM divergence - Updated Tue October 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Asia macro trackers – Singapore growth is in line with our tracker • Euro area – We expect the final release of CPI to match the flash • US – Retail sales likely hit by m/m drop in car sales and cheaper gas • Market focus •...

  • The growth-inflation tug-of-war - Updated Wed October 8, 2014

    Nonfarm payrolls revert to trend • Job gains support the US dollar • Growth/inflation trade-off presents a dilemma for the FOMC • Cross-asset volatility is likely to persist ...

  • Post-FOMC outlook for risk premia - Updated Thu September 18, 2014

    FOMC statement is neutral, but the new rate projections are hawkish • We explore the implications for risk premia and cross-asset views • We like US money-market steepeners, US rates vol and gold vol...

  • 21-Jul – AXJ impact if Ukraine crisis escalates - Updated Sun July 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Inflation likely edged up, but mildly, to 3.0% y/y in Q2 • Nigeria – CBN expected to keep interest rates on hold • United States – July CPI should remain firm, but it is still ‘noisy’ • Market focus • If Ukrain...

  • 16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and geopolitics - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical con...

  • 07-Mar – China, commodities and currencies - Updated Thu March 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Trade deficit to stay in single digits • Japan – C/A was likely in deficit again in January • US – February’s job report to show a hiring slowdown amid bad weather • Market focus • China’s February trade data to so...

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