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  • 05-May – BNM is likely to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • BoJ minutes to shed light on Kiuchi’s proposal • New Zealand – Unemployment rate likely fell to 5.5% • US – Before payrolls, markets likely to listen carefully to Chair Yellen • Market focus • BNM is likely to keep the poli...

  • 04-Apr – Not too early or late, just right for RBA - Updated Sun May 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Real GDP growth likely remained weak in Q1-2015 • Philippines – Inflation may moderate further on lower food inflation • US – Services to do most of heavy lifting in Q2 • Market focus • RBA will likely ease agai...

  • 30-Apr – Fed data-watching continues - Updated Wed April 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing sector likely still under pressure • South Korea – April trade probably softened further • Mexico – Banxico likely to hold back, awaiting the Fed’s move • Market focus • Fed statement noted recent weak...

  • 27-Apr – Weak US Q1 growth may stump the Fed - Updated Sun April 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade balance likely improved on sluggish import growth • Japan – Retail sales probably weakened y/y in March on a high base • UK – Consumption to drive growth, investment under pressure • Market focus • We t...

  • 24-Apr – Awaiting another surprise from the BoJ - Updated Thu April 23, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Beware excessive euphoria • United States – Durable goods to show still-strong industry headwinds • Oil – US oil production set to fall heavily • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to add at least JPY10tn to the ass...

  • 23-Apr – China SOE default: A blessing in disguise - Updated Wed April 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • United States – Underlying trend in new home sales is firming up • Germany – IFO business climate likely continued to improve • Vietnam – April data likely showed steady growth • Market focus • First SOE default likely to im...

  • Pay 2Y1Y USD as growth recovers from Q1 soft patch - Updated Tue April 21, 2015

    US growth is set to rebound in Q2 while the latest CPI data suggests core inflation is stabilising • However, the market is now pricing in an extremely dovish Fed view, implying just one hike this year • We expect short-end rates to move higher as...

  • 17-Apr – USD-CNY forecast revisions - Updated Thu April 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – March export orders likely supported by rising tech demand • Malaysia – Inflation to increase from April • US – March CPI inflation data likely to support the Fed’s ‘no rush’ view • Market focus • We raise CNY fore...

  • 14-Apr – China’s growth likely slowed further - Updated Mon April 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – March unemployment rate was likely subdued • Euro area – Good momentum, but the ECB will continue with QE • US – Consumers likely returned to shops in March • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP growth may have slow...

  • 09-Apr – A pause for breath or a policy inflection? - Updated Wed April 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Industrial production likely slowed in February • China – We think inflation moderated after the Lunar New Year • China – Credit growth likely slid again in March • Market focus • USD strength in Q1 was almost in ...



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Trade idea

05-May – BNM is likely to keep rates on hold

Top 3 data/events • BoJ minutes to shed light on Kiuchi’s proposal • New Zealand – Unemployment rate likely fell to 5.5% • US – Before payrolls, markets likely to listen carefully to Chair Yellen • Market focus • BNM is likely to keep the policy rate on hold but increase its focus on...

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