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  • 23-Feb – Yellen to sound less dovish than minutes - Updated Sun February 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Trade deficit expected due to poor export growth • Vietnam - Key February data likely distorted by Tet holiday • Turkey – We expect the CBRT to cut its benchmark rate 50bps • Market focus • We expect (relative...

  • 18-Feb – Fed minutes likely to show tightening bias - Updated Tue February 17, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely widened in January • Euro area – PMIs likely to tick down • Euro area – ECB releases meeting minutes for the first time ever • Market focus • The minutes’ tone should be balanced; but the under...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Another year of progress ahead - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53% • We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation • Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...

  • 05-Feb – Oil prices make US payroll call slippery - Updated Wed February 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy likely to be bearish • Malaysia – Weaker MYR likely supported the trade balance • China – January trade data to benefit from holiday distortion • Market focus • We predict payr...

  • 02-Feb – India: RBI likely to cut rates - Updated Sun February 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia − RBA likely to revert to a dovish stance, without cutting rates • South Korea − CPI inflation likely picked up moderately in January • US – ISM likely moderated on global headwinds, oil price rout • Market focus ...

  • 28-Jan – ‘Patient’ Fed watches the data - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ expected to keep cash rate unchanged at 3.50% • Philippines – Q4 GDP growth rebound expected after disappointing Q3 • South Africa – MPC to clarify tightening intent • Market focus • We expect little chan...

  • 27-Jan – BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep policy rates unchanged • Australia – Q4-2014 inflation was likely lower at 1.8% y/y • US – Fed in ‘hibernation’; statement should repeat ‘patience’ • Market focus • We reiterate our call tha...

  • United States – Fed hibernates in January - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    The 28 January Fed meeting is unlikely to bring surprises; statement should repeat continued “patience” • Recent low wage and soft inflation prints will likely take centre stage during internal debates • These worries are unlikely to be reflected ...

  • 16-Jan – The SNB, RBI and policy credibility - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Revised IP likely to show a smaller m/m drop • India – RBI surprised with an inter-meeting rate cut • US – Not immune to global disinflationary trends as CPI is set to drop • Market focus • SNB step to scrap EUR-CHF...

  • 13-Jan – The EU Court and QE implications - Updated Mon January 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Remittance growth was likely strong in November • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • US – December retail sales data: Beware of the price-effect • Market focus • The ECJ’s in...



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Trade idea

23-Feb – Yellen to sound less dovish than...

Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Trade deficit expected due to poor export growth • Vietnam - Key February data likely distorted by Tet holiday • Turkey – We expect the CBRT to cut its benchmark rate 50bps • Market focus • We expect (relatively) hawkish testimony from Fed Chair Yellen...

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