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  • Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, bigger Renminbi - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    • We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover • New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB • We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Survey says RGI to reaccelerate - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    RGI’s rise moderated in August to 1.8% m/m; strong deposit growth across centres is a bright spot • Survey suggests that CNH growth is picking up again, although Dim Sum issuers remain cautious • We added new survey questions to understand which f...

  • 15-Jul – Remain negative on EM bonds - Updated Sun July 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – July minutes might provide insights into further moves • CNH – CNH discount at end-2013, premium to re-emerge in H2-2014 • US – Consumer spending likely resisted fiscal headwinds • Market focus • Directional si...

  • Signalling more pain for EM near-term - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    The two key macro signals – the market’s Fed view and China’s data – signal more near-term pain • The key positioning signal – high cash levels – dampens negative feedback from redemption flows • In H2, slightly better China growth and lower...

  • 05-Jun – Not all EM are equal - Updated Tue June 4, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • UK – Bank of England on hold at King’s last meeting • US – ISM non-mfg index and ADP set the tone for payrolls • CNH – New USD-CNH forecasts • Market focus • Global backdrop is difficult for EM FX, but there are relative-...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.