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  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • 10-Feb – India: Softer inflation amid growth pains - Updated Sun February 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – December export growth likely remained robust • Japan – December machinery orders likely slightly dropped m/m • US – Another lacklustre payroll print; but tapering is set to continue • Market focus • India Jan...

  • 10-Jan – India’s inflation to slow; buy 5Y GoISecs - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Kenya – Policy rate expected to stay on hold until Q3 • Taiwan – TWD NEER weakness expected to aid export outlook • United States – A moderate increase in December payrolls is likely • Market focus • December CPI is likely...

  • 17-Dec – India – RBI to focus on managing inflation - Updated Mon December 16, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – November’s trade balance likely remained in deficit • Malaysia – Inflation may have increased very slightly in November • US – CPI likely tame; homebuilders’ confidence probably rose • Market focus • Uncomfortably ...

  • 06-Dec – India’s state election signal - Updated Thu December 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – November macro data to be in focus next week • Japan – October current account likely remained in surplus • United States – The Fed will likely take a holistic view of Friday’s data • Market focus • Indian state el...

  • 08-Nov – China: Recovery continues in Q4 - Updated Thu November 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – IP likely rebounded on a m/m SA basis in September • India – The SIGMA signal turns bearish for duration in November • United States – NFP likely to maintain the 2014 ‘taper’ status quo • Market focus • China’s g...

  • 28-Oct – India: RBI – Sequencing the exit - Updated Sun October 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Rising retail sales and hiring indicate growing confidence • South Korea – Industrial production likely contracted in September • US – Pending homes sales likely slowed, but IP probably increased • Market focus • Hi...

  • 25-Sep – Top Asian rates trades amid tapering delay - Updated Tue September 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Government front-loads H2-FY14 market borrowing • Taiwan – CBC likely to hold policy rate steady; IP data on an uptrend • US – Core durable goods orders and new home sales likely rebounded • Market focus • Fed’s ta...

  • 23-Sep – India – The RBI’s hawkish twist - Updated Sun September 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Germany – Business optimum persists in the run-up to the election • Nigeria – FX policy in focus at MPC meeting • US – Consumer confidence likely eroded; home prices on the rise • Market focus • Hawkish RBI is likely to inc...

  • 20-Aug – Thailand enters a technical recession - Updated Mon August 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – GoISec yields touch five-year highs • Malaysia – Economic growth likely picked up in Q2 • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on September QE tapering • Market focus • Thailand’s Q2 GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q, regi...

  • 13-Aug – USD 11bn package to support the INR - Updated Mon August 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – WPI inflation likely edged higher in July • UK – Labour market data provides a litmus test on MPC decision • US – Retail sales likely bounced in July, which would comfort the Fed • Market focus • FM expects USD 11bn...

  • 05-Aug – The RBA: 225 not out - Updated Sun August 4, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Higher food, energy prices to support inflation print • India – SIGMA provides a bearish signal for duration in August • US – Focus turns to ISM services, which probably stayed healthy • Market focus • RBA is...

  • 29-Jul – India – A breather between storms - Updated Sun July 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – IP likely continued to improve • Euro area – Improved confidence expected ahead of next ECB meeting • US – 31 July brings likely soft Q2 GDP data and the FOMC policy decision • Market focus • We expect the RBI to k...

  • 03-Jul – There’s a new sheriff in town - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Signal from SIGMA remains bearish on GoISecs • United States – Interest rates on student debt: a deal is still possible • Mexico – Correlation breakdown • Market focus • We expect the ECB and BoE to keep policy on ...

  • 07-Jun – Flat Chinese growth; liquidity to stay tight - Updated Thu June 6, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Current account is expected to have remained positive • India – GoISec weakness is likely to persist in the short term • US – Payrolls to ease fears of short-term QE tapering • Market focus • We expect flat growth ...

  • 03-Jun – The bigger they are, the harder they fall - Updated Sun June 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to cut again; we expect a move in June • India – Inflation-linked bonds likely to attract good demand • United States – Risks to the ISM survey are mainly to the upside • Market focus • Crowded posit...

  • 02-May – RBI set to cut the repo rate - Updated Wed May 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Africa – PMI expected to remain sub-50 • UK – April services PMI to improve • US – Recent weak data leads us to lower our NFP forecast • Market focus • RBI to cut the repo rate by 25bps to 7.25%; policy guidance likel...

  • 08-Feb-13 – What Korean corporates think - Updated Thu February 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Lower GDP estimate ahead of easing supply supports GoISecs • Chile – Low January CPI should temper BCCh’s hawkish tone • United States – Trade deficit likely narrowed after November’s surge • Market focus • Korean ...

  • 28-Jan-13 – Only a cautious step by the RBI - Updated Sun January 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – High USD-TWD close indicates near-term TWD weakness • Euro area – Still-high liquidity, still-scarce credit • US – Headline durable goods orders likely gained in December • Market focus • We expect the RBI to cut t...

  • 11-Dec-12 – Top EM rates trades for 2013 - Updated Mon December 10, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – October IIP print likely to be the strongest so far in FY13 • Japan – Data releases likely to bring few surprises • United States – FOMC to end 2012 without a twist, but with a QE bang • Market focus • We remain b...



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11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off following the parliamentary elections on 9...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.