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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • 02-Feb – India: RBI likely to cut rates - Updated Sun February 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia − RBA likely to revert to a dovish stance, without cutting rates • South Korea − CPI inflation likely picked up moderately in January • US – ISM likely moderated on global headwinds, oil price rout • Market focus ...

  • 27-Jan – BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep policy rates unchanged • Australia – Q4-2014 inflation was likely lower at 1.8% y/y • US – Fed in ‘hibernation’; statement should repeat ‘patience’ • Market focus • We reiterate our call tha...

  • 16-Jan – The SNB, RBI and policy credibility - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Revised IP likely to show a smaller m/m drop • India – RBI surprised with an inter-meeting rate cut • US – Not immune to global disinflationary trends as CPI is set to drop • Market focus • SNB step to scrap EUR-CHF...

  • 09-Jan – US NFPs: Regressing to the mean - Updated Thu January 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • TWD – USD-TWD gains may slow near-term • India – The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • India – Increase in December CPI is unlikely to be a concern • Market focus • We expect NFPs to moderate to 240,000 ...

  • 07-Nov – Payroll report to test ‘Econ 101’ - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Growing concern over a weak JPY • China – Steady exports likely contributed to growth in October • India – SIGMA signal is bullish for duration in November • Market focus • October payrolls likely strong again...

  • 22-Oct – BSP to take a breather after policy rate hikes - Updated Tue October 21, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Headline inflation likely continued to moderate • Euro area – PMI will likely deteriorate for a third month • US – Core CPI inflation likely was soft; risks of early Fed hike are low • Market focus • We expect B...

  • 03-Oct – NFPs: Another step towards a 2015 rate hike - Updated Thu October 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – The SIGMA signal is bullish for duration in October • Malaysia – 2015 Budget is likely to signal continued fiscal consolidation • Thailand – Additional fiscal measures to jump-start the economy • Market focus • Augu...

  • 25-Sep – Implications of Indonesia’s fuel-price hike - Updated Wed September 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth likely remained lacklustre in August • Japan – Core inflation probably stayed within the BoJ’s comfort zone • US – Durable goods orders likely plunged on aircraft orders reversal • Market focus • Mark...

  • Searching for value in EM Asia fixed income markets - Updated Fri September 19, 2014

    We see the recent pull-back as an opportunity to selectively buy into EM; we expect Asia to outperform • Within high-yield Asia, we favour IDR over INR bond markets on improving fundamentals and asset rotation • Within low-yield Asia, we favour TH...

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