• USD-PKR has rallied 10% to 99 since end-2013 on FX aid flows, improving sentiment
• However, fundamentals are weak - the trade deficit is widening, FX reserves are below comfort levels
• Short-term gains to persist; we forecast PKR at 98 by Ju...
We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
Top 3 data/events
• Pakistan – PKR is under pressure due to declining FX reserves
• India – SIGMA provides a mildly bullish signal for duration in October
• Germany – PMIs suggest a healthy pick-up in factory orders
• Market focus
• BI and Bo...
• SBP raises policy rates by 50bps at its 13 September meeting; timing surprises the market
• Central bank highlights inflation’s sharp acceleration and the weak balance of payment position
• SBP raises headline CPI projection for FY14 to 11-12%...
Muted recovery, fiscal consolidation and C/A improvement are the common themes for South Asia
• Within this, the outlook for the BDT is most positive, while the PKR is expected to slide further
• Political uncertainty is a key risk for the region,...
Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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