We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
Top 3 data/events
• Pakistan – PKR is under pressure due to declining FX reserves
• India – SIGMA provides a mildly bullish signal for duration in October
• Germany – PMIs suggest a healthy pick-up in factory orders
• Market focus
• BI and Bo...
• SBP raises policy rates by 50bps at its 13 September meeting; timing surprises the market
• Central bank highlights inflation’s sharp acceleration and the weak balance of payment position
• SBP raises headline CPI projection for FY14 to 11-12%...
Muted recovery, fiscal consolidation and C/A improvement are the common themes for South Asia
• Within this, the outlook for the BDT is most positive, while the PKR is expected to slide further
• Political uncertainty is a key risk for the region,...
Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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