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  • Sri Lanka – More rate cuts to come - Updated Wed April 15, 2015

    CBSL, in a surprise move, cut the SDFR and SDLR 50bps each to 6.0% and 7.5%, respectively • March 2015 inflation was at an all-time low of 0.1%; we expect average inflation below 2% in 2015 • Growth-inflation mix likely to determine near-term rat...

  • Cross-currents and vulnerability in AXJ currencies - Updated Tue March 17, 2015

    Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call • USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility • We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...

  • Sri Lanka – No surprises from the CBSL - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    • The CBSL maintains the status quo on policy rates at its February meeting • While January inflation of 3.2% y/y was higher than our estimates, we expect inflation to remain benign • Private credit growth improved for the sixth straight month to ...

  • Sri Lanka – Upholding pre-election promises - Updated Fri January 30, 2015

    • Interim 2015 budget focuses on lowering cost of living; commitment to fiscal consolidation remains • Government expenditure shifts towards recurrent spending; public investment targets cut • New taxes introduced on the corporate sector and wealt...

  • Sri Lanka – Inflation trajectory to improve further - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    New administration cuts fuel prices substantially, fulfilling a key electoral promise • Inflation trajectory looks even more benign now; this could raise expectations of a policy rate cut • We maintain our view of no rate change due to external ...

  • Asian rates 2015 – Cherry-picking Asian markets - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    • Asian local-currency bond markets to benefit from low inflation and lower-for-longer DM bond yields • We expect local central banks to stay dovish in H1 before showing some divergence in H2 • Demand/supply dynamics are neutral to positive, exc...

  • Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): Winners and losers - Updated Mon January 5, 2015

    TPP will make Vietnam’s apparel exports to the US more competitive, at the expense of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka • The extent of the impact will depend on how sourcing requirements are structured • Flexible sourcing rules could enable Vietnam to ove...

  • Sri Lanka – Transmission, not transition - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    • The CBSL keeps policy rates on hold and tweaks the monetary policy operating framework • Incremental changes in monetary policy should lead to improved policy transmission, but credit growth is likely to pick up only gradually • We lower our inf...

  • Sri Lanka – Lower for longer - Updated Fri July 25, 2014

    • Private credit growth will likely be slow to pick up • Despite this, we expect the CBSL to keep policy rates on hold for now • Revised T-bond yield forecasts indicate only a gradual rise in yields; stay Neutral on T-bonds ...

  • CBSL – Hoping for a turnaround - Updated Wed June 18, 2014

    The CBSL keeps rates on hold; GDP growth remains strong, despite low inflation and credit growth • The central bank wants lending rates to come off further before it cuts rates again • In our view, the earliest it will consider a further rate cut...

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