Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call
• USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility
• We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...
• The CBSL maintains the status quo on policy rates at its February meeting
• While January inflation of 3.2% y/y was higher than our estimates, we expect inflation to remain benign
• Private credit growth improved for the sixth straight month to ...
• Interim 2015 budget focuses on lowering cost of living; commitment to fiscal consolidation remains
• Government expenditure shifts towards recurrent spending; public investment targets cut
• New taxes introduced on the corporate sector and wealt...
New administration cuts fuel prices substantially, fulfilling a key electoral promise
• Inflation trajectory looks even more benign now; this could raise expectations of a policy rate cut
• We maintain our view of no rate change due to external ...
• Asian local-currency bond markets to benefit from low inflation and lower-for-longer DM bond yields
• We expect local central banks to stay dovish in H1 before showing some divergence in H2
• Demand/supply dynamics are neutral to positive, exc...
TPP will make Vietnam’s apparel exports to the US more competitive, at the expense of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka
• The extent of the impact will depend on how sourcing requirements are structured
• Flexible sourcing rules could enable Vietnam to ove...
• The CBSL keeps policy rates on hold and tweaks the monetary policy operating framework
• Incremental changes in monetary policy should lead to improved policy transmission, but credit growth is likely to pick up only gradually
• We lower our inf...
• Private credit growth will likely be slow to pick up
• Despite this, we expect the CBSL to keep policy rates on hold for now
• Revised T-bond yield forecasts indicate only a gradual rise in yields; stay Neutral on T-bonds
The CBSL keeps rates on hold; GDP growth remains strong, despite low inflation and credit growth
• The central bank wants lending rates to come off further before it cuts rates again
• In our view, the earliest it will consider a further rate cut...
• Policy rates remain unchanged in May; the CBSL is a tad more dovish than usual
The inflation trajectory is not yet a threat
• CBSL wants to enable better transmission of monetary easing; will launch a credit-guarantee scheme
• We expect CBSL to...
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