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  • 28-May – US surprise indices may have troughed - Updated Wed May 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated in May • FX – We raise USD-LKR and lower USD-BDT forecasts • Japan – Core inflation likely remained 0%; IP may have edged up • Market focus • Second Q1 GDP print may be a painful rem...

  • 08-May – Greece: Low breakthrough prospects - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India –The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • Sri Lanka – CBSL is likely to keep rates on hold in May • China – Inflation likely remained subdued in April • Market focus • Expectations for a breakthrough ...

  • Sri Lanka – More rate cuts to come - Updated Wed April 15, 2015

    CBSL, in a surprise move, cut the SDFR and SDLR 50bps each to 6.0% and 7.5%, respectively • March 2015 inflation was at an all-time low of 0.1%; we expect average inflation below 2% in 2015 • Growth-inflation mix likely to determine near-term rat...

  • Cross-currents and vulnerability in AXJ currencies - Updated Tue March 17, 2015

    Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call • USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility • We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...

  • Sri Lanka – No surprises from the CBSL - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    • The CBSL maintains the status quo on policy rates at its February meeting • While January inflation of 3.2% y/y was higher than our estimates, we expect inflation to remain benign • Private credit growth improved for the sixth straight month to ...

  • Sri Lanka – Upholding pre-election promises - Updated Fri January 30, 2015

    • Interim 2015 budget focuses on lowering cost of living; commitment to fiscal consolidation remains • Government expenditure shifts towards recurrent spending; public investment targets cut • New taxes introduced on the corporate sector and wealt...

  • Sri Lanka – Inflation trajectory to improve further - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    New administration cuts fuel prices substantially, fulfilling a key electoral promise • Inflation trajectory looks even more benign now; this could raise expectations of a policy rate cut • We maintain our view of no rate change due to external ...

  • Asian rates 2015 – Cherry-picking Asian markets - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    • Asian local-currency bond markets to benefit from low inflation and lower-for-longer DM bond yields • We expect local central banks to stay dovish in H1 before showing some divergence in H2 • Demand/supply dynamics are neutral to positive, exc...

  • Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): Winners and losers - Updated Mon January 5, 2015

    TPP will make Vietnam’s apparel exports to the US more competitive, at the expense of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka • The extent of the impact will depend on how sourcing requirements are structured • Flexible sourcing rules could enable Vietnam to ove...

  • Sri Lanka – Transmission, not transition - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    • The CBSL keeps policy rates on hold and tweaks the monetary policy operating framework • Incremental changes in monetary policy should lead to improved policy transmission, but credit growth is likely to pick up only gradually • We lower our inf...

  • Sri Lanka – Lower for longer - Updated Fri July 25, 2014

    • Private credit growth will likely be slow to pick up • Despite this, we expect the CBSL to keep policy rates on hold for now • Revised T-bond yield forecasts indicate only a gradual rise in yields; stay Neutral on T-bonds ...

  • CBSL – Hoping for a turnaround - Updated Wed June 18, 2014

    The CBSL keeps rates on hold; GDP growth remains strong, despite low inflation and credit growth • The central bank wants lending rates to come off further before it cuts rates again • In our view, the earliest it will consider a further rate cut...

  • Sri Lanka – A dovish twist from the CBSL - Updated Tue May 20, 2014

    • Policy rates remain unchanged in May; the CBSL is a tad more dovish than usual The inflation trajectory is not yet a threat • CBSL wants to enable better transmission of monetary easing; will launch a credit-guarantee scheme • We expect CBSL to...

  • Sri Lanka – Maintaining the status quo on rates - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    The Central Bank of Sri Lanka kept policy rates unchanged at its 22 April meeting • Upside risks to inflation increase the likelihood that it will keep rates on hold for longer • Private credit growth continues to slow, while external sector perfo...

  • Sri Lanka – Weather woes - Updated Mon April 21, 2014

    Sri Lanka’s rice harvest will likely be affected by the ongoing drought • Food inflation should rise significantly during the summer; we expect some impact in the winter, too • If the El Niño effect materialises, headline inflation could rise to...

  • Sri Lanka – Debt dynamics - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Sri Lanka’s public and external-debt ratios are relatively high by emerging-market standards • LKR depreciation has been a major factor in keeping the public-debt ratio elevated • Cautious fiscal policy and a stable exchange rate could keep the ...

  • Sri Lanka – CBSL on an extended pause - Updated Fri March 21, 2014

    2013 GDP surprises on the upside, and inflation continues to fall, justifying CBSL’s status quo on rates • Q4 GDP increase in contrast to weakness in proxy growth indicators • No change likely in policy rate until Q3-2014 the earliest • The T-...

  • Sri Lanka – No surprises from the CBSL - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    No change in monetary policy in February • Economic data shows signs of improvement, inflation is still benign • CBSL is likely to remain on hold unless economic data shows significant weakness • T-bond market response is muted; we remain Neut...

  • Sri Lanka – Waiting for the rebound - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    We expect a marginal improvement in growth in 2014 to 7.0% (from an expected 6.8% in 2013) • The credit cycle may take some time to turn • The CBSL is on hold for now – low private-credit growth/inflation could trigger a further rate cut • The L...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...



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28-May – US surprise indices may have...

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated in May • FX – We raise USD-LKR and lower USD-BDT forecasts • Japan – Core inflation likely remained 0%; IP may have edged up • Market focus • Second Q1 GDP print may be a painful reminder of data weakness • We still expect a...

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