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  • Sri Lanka – Debt dynamics - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Sri Lanka’s public and external-debt ratios are relatively high by emerging-market standards • LKR depreciation has been a major factor in keeping the public-debt ratio elevated • Cautious fiscal policy and a stable exchange rate could keep the ...

  • Global Focus conference call – The world in transition - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Tenengauzer, Regional Head of Re...

  • Global Focus – The world in transition - Updated Fri March 28, 2014

    • Please note corrected time • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Te...

  • Global Focus – The world in transition - Updated Thu March 27, 2014

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Tenengauzer, Regional Head of Resea...

  • Sri Lanka – CBSL on an extended pause - Updated Fri March 21, 2014

    2013 GDP surprises on the upside, and inflation continues to fall, justifying CBSL’s status quo on rates • Q4 GDP increase in contrast to weakness in proxy growth indicators • No change likely in policy rate until Q3-2014 the earliest • The T-...

  • Asia – Leverage uncovered: An update - Updated Thu March 6, 2014

    China remains the top country of concern in the region on most credit metrics • Corporate-sector leverage has moved up on our list of concerns across the region • Singapore’s corporate-sector debt metrics have worsened, on average, driven by the l...

  • 06-Mar – India – Polling time looms - Updated Wed March 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Bangladesh – Improving sentiment in the T-bond market • Malaysia – Exports likely remained healthy in January • Taiwan – Exports likely rebounded sharply following seasonal effects • Market focus • India’s national electio...

  • Bangladesh - Riding out the storm - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    • Growth is likely to remain sub-par at 5.3% and 5.9% in FY14 and FY15, respectively • We expect no change in policy rates as the BB seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability • A narrower current account surplus could put mild depreciation pressur...

  • Sri Lanka – No surprises from the CBSL - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    No change in monetary policy in February • Economic data shows signs of improvement, inflation is still benign • CBSL is likely to remain on hold unless economic data shows significant weakness • T-bond market response is muted; we remain Neut...

  • Sri Lanka – Waiting for the rebound - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    We expect a marginal improvement in growth in 2014 to 7.0% (from an expected 6.8% in 2013) • The credit cycle may take some time to turn • The CBSL is on hold for now – low private-credit growth/inflation could trigger a further rate cut • The L...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.