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  • Sri Lanka – Maintaining the status quo on rates - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    The Central Bank of Sri Lanka kept policy rates unchanged at its 22 April meeting • Upside risks to inflation increase the likelihood that it will keep rates on hold for longer • Private credit growth continues to slow, while external sector perfo...

  • Global Focus conference call – The world in transition - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Tenengauzer, Regional Head of Re...

  • Global Focus – The world in transition - Updated Fri March 28, 2014

    • Please note corrected time • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Te...

  • Global Focus – The world in transition - Updated Thu March 27, 2014

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Tenengauzer, Regional Head of Resea...

  • Sri Lanka – CBSL on an extended pause - Updated Fri March 21, 2014

    2013 GDP surprises on the upside, and inflation continues to fall, justifying CBSL’s status quo on rates • Q4 GDP increase in contrast to weakness in proxy growth indicators • No change likely in policy rate until Q3-2014 the earliest • The T-...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 10Y South African bonds - Updated Fri March 14, 2014

    South African bonds are well placed to benefit from the new and strongly positive EM bond signals • Our directional signal has now turned positive: investors in aggregate are now buying, not selling • Our spread signal has now turned positive, s...

  • 06-Mar – India – Polling time looms - Updated Wed March 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Bangladesh – Improving sentiment in the T-bond market • Malaysia – Exports likely remained healthy in January • Taiwan – Exports likely rebounded sharply following seasonal effects • Market focus • India’s national electio...

  • Sri Lanka – No surprises from the CBSL - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    No change in monetary policy in February • Economic data shows signs of improvement, inflation is still benign • CBSL is likely to remain on hold unless economic data shows significant weakness • T-bond market response is muted; we remain Neut...

  • Sri Lanka – Waiting for the rebound - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    We expect a marginal improvement in growth in 2014 to 7.0% (from an expected 6.8% in 2013) • The credit cycle may take some time to turn • The CBSL is on hold for now – low private-credit growth/inflation could trigger a further rate cut • The L...

  • Updates on our relative-value signals for swaps - Updated Wed December 4, 2013

    We update the signals from our relative-value (RV) model for swaps based on a PCA framework • New RV signals: THB 3Y/7Y flattener and pay SGD 1Y/3Y/10Y • Of the 8 signals closed since we launched our RV model, 6 would have delivered profit, 2 loss...

  • SC FIRST – Negative directional signal for EM bonds - Updated Mon November 18, 2013

    Our directional signal for EM bonds has turned negative for the first time since July • Outflows from EM funds are accelerating, hurting risk appetite and triggering EM bond selling • Fundamentally, we are neutral on EM bonds, as we expect Fed QE ...

  • Estimating EM local fund beta - Updated Fri November 1, 2013

    • We previously analysed aggregate foreign positioning in local currency in SC FIRST, assessed our own data sources for a more accurate fund-flow analysis, and generated insights on foreign-investor heterogeneity • We can now generate insights on d...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 07-Oct – Asian central banks to maintain status quo - Updated Sun October 6, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Pakistan – PKR is under pressure due to declining FX reserves • India – SIGMA provides a mildly bullish signal for duration in October • Germany – PMIs suggest a healthy pick-up in factory orders • Market focus • BI and Bo...

  • Pakistan – SBP hikes policy rates by 50bps - Updated Mon September 16, 2013

    • SBP raises policy rates by 50bps at its 13 September meeting; timing surprises the market • Central bank highlights inflation’s sharp acceleration and the weak balance of payment position • SBP raises headline CPI projection for FY14 to 11-12%...

  • 10-Sep – China – Steady FX, volatile interest rates - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Industrial production likely improved in July • South Asia – Bangladesh and Sri Lanka FX expected to be flat • United Kingdom – Unemployment rate likely to remain unchanged • Market focus • Trade and activity re...

  • Investors continue to withdraw from EM funds - Updated Thu August 22, 2013

    Emerging markets, especially in Asia, are experiencing an acute stress phase once again • Using our proprietary datasets tracking local- and hard-currency flows, we see small, steady outflows • Local outflows may have picked up in the last few d...

  • Sri Lanka – Pessimism is overdone - Updated Mon July 8, 2013

    • Stable FX reserves offset the impact of Moody’s sovereign outlook revision on Sri Lankan markets • Steady growth and lower inflation underpin our constructive outlook on Sri Lanka • Inflation is likely to pick up in Q4, but the absence of furthe...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.