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  • SC FIRST – Position risk drives EM flow - Updated Thu May 28, 2015

    Factors driving global markets are reflected in the latest positioning data from SC FIRST • Flows to EM local bond markets have improved somewhat but are far from positive • Malaysia remains in favour relative to Indonesia and Thailand...

  • 28-May – US surprise indices may have troughed - Updated Wed May 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated in May • FX – We raise USD-LKR and lower USD-BDT forecasts • Japan – Core inflation likely remained 0%; IP may have edged up • Market focus • Second Q1 GDP print may be a painful rem...

  • Bangladesh – Fiscal deficit may widen in FY16 - Updated Mon May 25, 2015

    FY16 budget likely to have expansionary bias; fiscal deficit may widen on investment revival • FY15 fiscal deficit could surprise positively on sharp cuts to non-development expenditure • We have a Positive outlook on T-bonds; widening fiscal defi...

  • 08-May – Greece: Low breakthrough prospects - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India –The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • Sri Lanka – CBSL is likely to keep rates on hold in May • China – Inflation likely remained subdued in April • Market focus • Expectations for a breakthrough ...

  • Pan-Asia rates – Supported by low DM bond yields - Updated Mon April 27, 2015

    • Our three key macro themes – disinflation, policy divergence and currency wars – are still at play • While the EM/DM real yield differential has narrowed and is no longer very attractive, we see scope for further narrowing given low or negative b...

  • SC FIRST – Caution over, as Fed not impatient to hike - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    Foreign investor sentiment towards emerging markets has improved after the 18 March FOMC meeting EM funds remain overweight duration and still favour Indonesia, but are returning to Malaysia EM/DM yield spread to be range-bound as foreign investor...

  • Pan-Asian rates: 2015 outlook - Updated Wed January 28, 2015

    Deflationary pressures should help to anchor risk-free rates and support Asian rates markets • While USD strength remains a headwind to Asian rates markets, onshore demand and structural flows should continue to support Asian LCY debt • Buying Ind...

  • Sri Lanka – Inflation trajectory to improve further - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    New administration cuts fuel prices substantially, fulfilling a key electoral promise • Inflation trajectory looks even more benign now; this could raise expectations of a policy rate cut • We maintain our view of no rate change due to external ...

  • Asian rates 2015 – Cherry-picking Asian markets - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    • Asian local-currency bond markets to benefit from low inflation and lower-for-longer DM bond yields • We expect local central banks to stay dovish in H1 before showing some divergence in H2 • Demand/supply dynamics are neutral to positive, exc...

  • Trip notes – Beyond oil - Updated Mon December 8, 2014

    We met with clients across the US last week to discuss opportunities heading into 2015 • Post-OPEC, the focus was heavily on oil; moves in trade-weighted FX had less focus • Risk addition is likely to be light into year-end; currency wars will rem...



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28-May – US surprise indices may have...

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated in May • FX – We raise USD-LKR and lower USD-BDT forecasts • Japan – Core inflation likely remained 0%; IP may have edged up • Market focus • Second Q1 GDP print may be a painful reminder of data weakness • We still expect a...

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