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  • Pan-Asian rates: 2015 outlook - Updated Wed January 28, 2015

    Deflationary pressures should help to anchor risk-free rates and support Asian rates markets • While USD strength remains a headwind to Asian rates markets, onshore demand and structural flows should continue to support Asian LCY debt • Buying Ind...

  • Sri Lanka – Inflation trajectory to improve further - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    New administration cuts fuel prices substantially, fulfilling a key electoral promise • Inflation trajectory looks even more benign now; this could raise expectations of a policy rate cut • We maintain our view of no rate change due to external ...

  • Asian rates 2015 – Cherry-picking Asian markets - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    • Asian local-currency bond markets to benefit from low inflation and lower-for-longer DM bond yields • We expect local central banks to stay dovish in H1 before showing some divergence in H2 • Demand/supply dynamics are neutral to positive, exc...

  • Trip notes – Beyond oil - Updated Mon December 8, 2014

    We met with clients across the US last week to discuss opportunities heading into 2015 • Post-OPEC, the focus was heavily on oil; moves in trade-weighted FX had less focus • Risk addition is likely to be light into year-end; currency wars will rem...

  • Sri Lanka – Transmission, not transition - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    • The CBSL keeps policy rates on hold and tweaks the monetary policy operating framework • Incremental changes in monetary policy should lead to improved policy transmission, but credit growth is likely to pick up only gradually • We lower our inf...

  • Bangladesh investor trip – Key takeaways - Updated Mon August 18, 2014

    Clients remain cautiously optimistic on growth given Bangladesh’s fundamental export competitiveness • Growth in FY14 surprised on the upside; we raise our FY15 growth projections • Clients see upside risks to medium-term inflation trajectory; we...

  • Sri Lanka – Lower for longer - Updated Fri July 25, 2014

    • Private credit growth will likely be slow to pick up • Despite this, we expect the CBSL to keep policy rates on hold for now • Revised T-bond yield forecasts indicate only a gradual rise in yields; stay Neutral on T-bonds ...

  • Pakistan – SBP forecasts moderate inflation - Updated Tue July 22, 2014

    The SBP maintains rate at 10% on a positive growth outlook due to strong credit demand and FDI inflows • It forecasts inflation of 8% in FY15 on a stable PKR and a slowdown in money-supply growth • We expect the SBP to cut the rate by 100bps in H2...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 5Y THB bonds vs pay 5Y swaps - Updated Thu July 17, 2014

    • New allocations charts show ongoing short-covering that will continue to support Thai bonds and FX • Direction signal back to positive: add new long 5Y THB bonds vs pay 5Y swaps • Spread signal shifts down to neutral, supporting low-yield bonds ...

  • CBSL – Hoping for a turnaround - Updated Wed June 18, 2014

    The CBSL keeps rates on hold; GDP growth remains strong, despite low inflation and credit growth • The central bank wants lending rates to come off further before it cuts rates again • In our view, the earliest it will consider a further rate cut...



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