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  • SC FIRST – Caution over, as Fed not impatient to hike - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    Foreign investor sentiment towards emerging markets has improved after the 18 March FOMC meeting EM funds remain overweight duration and still favour Indonesia, but are returning to Malaysia EM/DM yield spread to be range-bound as foreign investor...

  • Pan-Asian rates: 2015 outlook - Updated Wed January 28, 2015

    Deflationary pressures should help to anchor risk-free rates and support Asian rates markets • While USD strength remains a headwind to Asian rates markets, onshore demand and structural flows should continue to support Asian LCY debt • Buying Ind...

  • Sri Lanka – Inflation trajectory to improve further - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    New administration cuts fuel prices substantially, fulfilling a key electoral promise • Inflation trajectory looks even more benign now; this could raise expectations of a policy rate cut • We maintain our view of no rate change due to external ...

  • Asian rates 2015 – Cherry-picking Asian markets - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    • Asian local-currency bond markets to benefit from low inflation and lower-for-longer DM bond yields • We expect local central banks to stay dovish in H1 before showing some divergence in H2 • Demand/supply dynamics are neutral to positive, exc...

  • Trip notes – Beyond oil - Updated Mon December 8, 2014

    We met with clients across the US last week to discuss opportunities heading into 2015 • Post-OPEC, the focus was heavily on oil; moves in trade-weighted FX had less focus • Risk addition is likely to be light into year-end; currency wars will rem...

  • Sri Lanka – Transmission, not transition - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    • The CBSL keeps policy rates on hold and tweaks the monetary policy operating framework • Incremental changes in monetary policy should lead to improved policy transmission, but credit growth is likely to pick up only gradually • We lower our inf...

  • Bangladesh investor trip – Key takeaways - Updated Mon August 18, 2014

    Clients remain cautiously optimistic on growth given Bangladesh’s fundamental export competitiveness • Growth in FY14 surprised on the upside; we raise our FY15 growth projections • Clients see upside risks to medium-term inflation trajectory; we...

  • Sri Lanka – Lower for longer - Updated Fri July 25, 2014

    • Private credit growth will likely be slow to pick up • Despite this, we expect the CBSL to keep policy rates on hold for now • Revised T-bond yield forecasts indicate only a gradual rise in yields; stay Neutral on T-bonds ...

  • Pakistan – SBP forecasts moderate inflation - Updated Tue July 22, 2014

    The SBP maintains rate at 10% on a positive growth outlook due to strong credit demand and FDI inflows • It forecasts inflation of 8% in FY15 on a stable PKR and a slowdown in money-supply growth • We expect the SBP to cut the rate by 100bps in H2...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 5Y THB bonds vs pay 5Y swaps - Updated Thu July 17, 2014

    • New allocations charts show ongoing short-covering that will continue to support Thai bonds and FX • Direction signal back to positive: add new long 5Y THB bonds vs pay 5Y swaps • Spread signal shifts down to neutral, supporting low-yield bonds ...

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