Deflationary pressures should help to anchor risk-free rates and support Asian rates markets
• While USD strength remains a headwind to Asian rates markets, onshore demand and structural flows should continue to support Asian LCY debt
• Buying Ind...
New administration cuts fuel prices substantially, fulfilling a key electoral promise
• Inflation trajectory looks even more benign now; this could raise expectations of a policy rate cut
• We maintain our view of no rate change due to external ...
• Asian local-currency bond markets to benefit from low inflation and lower-for-longer DM bond yields
• We expect local central banks to stay dovish in H1 before showing some divergence in H2
• Demand/supply dynamics are neutral to positive, exc...
We met with clients across the US last week to discuss opportunities heading into 2015
• Post-OPEC, the focus was heavily on oil; moves in trade-weighted FX had less focus
• Risk addition is likely to be light into year-end; currency wars will rem...
• The CBSL keeps policy rates on hold and tweaks the monetary policy operating framework
• Incremental changes in monetary policy should lead to improved policy transmission, but credit growth is likely to pick up only gradually
• We lower our inf...
Clients remain cautiously optimistic on growth given Bangladesh’s fundamental export competitiveness
• Growth in FY14 surprised on the upside; we raise our FY15 growth projections
• Clients see upside risks to medium-term inflation trajectory; we...
• Private credit growth will likely be slow to pick up
• Despite this, we expect the CBSL to keep policy rates on hold for now
• Revised T-bond yield forecasts indicate only a gradual rise in yields; stay Neutral on T-bonds
The SBP maintains rate at 10% on a positive growth outlook due to strong credit demand and FDI inflows
• It forecasts inflation of 8% in FY15 on a stable PKR and a slowdown in money-supply growth
• We expect the SBP to cut the rate by 100bps in H2...
• New allocations charts show ongoing short-covering that will continue to support Thai bonds and FX
• Direction signal back to positive: add new long 5Y THB bonds vs pay 5Y swaps
• Spread signal shifts down to neutral, supporting low-yield bonds ...
The CBSL keeps rates on hold; GDP growth remains strong, despite low inflation and credit growth
• The central bank wants lending rates to come off further before it cuts rates again
• In our view, the earliest it will consider a further rate cut...
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