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  • 13-May – Malaysia’s growth likely remained resilient - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – We expect the April trade deficit to have narrowed • Philippines – We expect no change in BSP’s policy rate decision • US – April consumer spending may show continued torpor • Market focus • We expect GDP growth to ...

  • Revisiting our Asian LCY bond-market views - Updated Mon May 11, 2015

    Global bond-market sell-off has affected Asian bond markets, albeit unevenly • We still like 5Y THB and MYR bonds; we widen the stop-loss level on our long 5Y THB bond trade • We remain Positive on IGBs and shift to long 5Y IGBs from long 10Y IGBs...

  • 11-May – BoE to stay on course, IR in focus - Updated Sun May 10, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – April inflation likely dipped below 5%; March IIP was likely tepid • Philippines – Export growth likely fell for a fourth consecutive month • Asian central banks – Focus is again on trade-weighted exchange rate • M...

  • 08-May – Greece: Low breakthrough prospects - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India –The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • Sri Lanka – CBSL is likely to keep rates on hold in May • China – Inflation likely remained subdued in April • Market focus • Expectations for a breakthrough ...

  • Pan-Asia rates – Supported by low DM bond yields - Updated Mon April 27, 2015

    • Our three key macro themes – disinflation, policy divergence and currency wars – are still at play • While the EM/DM real yield differential has narrowed and is no longer very attractive, we see scope for further narrowing given low or negative b...

  • 22-Apr – Clouds gather over the INR - Updated Tue April 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP likely contracted again in March • Taiwan – IP data likely to have slowed due to base effects • South Korea – Q1 GDP likely to have been subdued • Market focus • India’s equity-market outperformance has stalle...

  • 10-Apr – Our call on a MAS move is a close one - Updated Thu April 9, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – March CPI likely edged up owing to unseasonal rain • China – Weak demand may have weighed on trade growth • Japan – Feb MoR likely shrank, Mar PPI inflation likely slowed • Market focus • We expect the MAS to recent...

  • India – A wait and watch policy - Updated Tue April 7, 2015

    • RBI maintains status quo on policy rates today; we think further rate cuts are still likely • We expect a 50bps reduction in the repo rate to 7% in FY16, equally split over the next two meetings • Stay Positive on IGBs; Buy 10Y IGBs (entry: 8.0...

  • 07-Apr – BoJ is likely to ease further in April - Updated Mon April 6, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • Taiwan – Exports likely grew in March; inflation may have declined • Philippines – Export growth likely rebounded modestly in February • Market focus • Rece...

  • 02-Apr – India – A pause before easing - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to maintain cash rate at 2.25% in a close call • Malaysia – We expect lacklustre export growth for February • Philippines – Inflation likely eased in March • Market focus • RBI likely to keep repo rat...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • 19-Mar – India – Stay Positive on IGBs; Neutral INR - Updated Wed March 18, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export order growth likely declined in February • Hong Kong – Holiday data distortion likely caused the CPI jump in February • UK – Official forecasts revised • Market focus • Indian banks’ year-end profit booking ...

  • 13-Mar – BI likely to cut and signal a long pause - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Trade surplus likely increased in February • India – WPI likely moved lower in February • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed in January • Market focus • We expect BI to cut the BI rate and the FASBI r...

  • 11-Mar – India: A data-heavy week - Updated Tue March 10, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely rose again to a 13-year high • South Korea – We expect the BoK to remain on hold • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • Market focus • February CPI likel...

  • 27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher investment - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We ...

  • India – Budgeting for quality - Updated Thu February 19, 2015

    We expect the government to deliver on its FY15 fiscal deficit target of 4.1%; we project 3.6% for FY16 • Lower crude oil prices, recent hikes in excise tax may provide fiscal space to stimulate public investment • However, more radical steps are ...

  • India – Lower inflation paves the way for rate cuts - Updated Fri February 13, 2015

    The revised CPI, with a 2012 base, shows that inflationary pressure was lower than initially suggested • We revise our FY16 CPI inflation forecast to 5.4% from 5.8%; we expect a 75bps repo rate cut • We remain Positive on IGBs; buy 10Y IGBs (targ...

  • 13-Feb – Growth, inflation and the BoJ - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – SLF expansion to ease seasonal liquidity volatility • India – January trade deficit seen narrowing further on low oil imports • Philippines – Remittances to be buoyed by improving US labour market • Market focus • J...

  • 11-Feb – Greece and the walk from ‘no’ to ‘yes’ - Updated Tue February 10, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – We see further PPI slowdown; a pick-up in machinery orders • India – CPI likely rose in January; we await revised CPI series • UK – Inflation Report to be scrutinised for rate-hike hints • Market focus • Greece will...

  • 06-Feb – Malaysia shows resilience - Updated Thu February 5, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – New GDP series likely to show slower economic activity in FY15 • Japan – Current account balance was likely positive in December 2014 • Taiwan – Trade surplus was likely boosted by a lower (oil) import bill • Marke...



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13-May – Malaysia’s growth likely...

Top 3 data/events • India – We expect the April trade deficit to have narrowed • Philippines – We expect no change in BSP’s policy rate decision • US – April consumer spending may show continued torpor • Market focus • We expect GDP growth to have risen 5.4% y/y in Q1, versus 5.8% in...

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