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  • BDT to lead gains in South Asia FX - Updated Mon May 13, 2013

    Muted recovery, fiscal consolidation and C/A improvement are the common themes for South Asia • Within this, the outlook for the BDT is most positive, while the PKR is expected to slide further • Political uncertainty is a key risk for the region,...

  • 13-May – EM-21 reserve monitor: Bearish EUR, GBP - Updated Sun May 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI likely to keep rates unchanged at the May meeting • India – More good news on inflation • Germany – ZEW survey expected to reflect modest pickup in investor sentiment • Market focus • EM-21 central-bank rese...

  • 10-May – The rise of the doves - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Modest recovery likely continued in April • India – Slower CPI increases expected • United States – Fed speakers are unlikely to surprise the market • Market focus • BoK’s surprise decision to cut 25bps is the start...

  • INR – The glass is only half full - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    • India’s C/A deficit financing risks have eased substantially, lowering the upside risks to USD-INR • But mixed flows and suspected RBI intervention are likely to preclude an immediate break lower • We revise our BoP and INR forecasts, anticipat...

  • Asian FX PCA – Weak global IP cycle supports RV - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    PCA confirms that growth is the key driver of AXJ currencies, followed by carry and USD-CNY fixings • China’s IP cycle leads KRW, TWD, IDR and MYR; local IP cycle is important for INR and TWD • Recent drop in global and local IP cycles to weigh o...

  • 09-May – The Tasman tango - Updated Wed May 8, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Q1 GDP expected to confirm sustained mild recovery • India – March IIP likely remained lacklustre • Japan – Current account balance likely increased in March • Market focus • RBA cuts rates to tackle the elev...

  • India – RBI maintains a guarded stance - Updated Fri May 3, 2013

    • RBI reduces the repo rate by 25bps but sounds cautious • We reinstate our forecast of another 25bps repo rate cut in June as inflation moderates • We lower our FY14 WPI inflation forecast to 6.25% from 6.5%, see CPI inflation at 8.8% • Stay Ne...

  • India – Extend target on long 4Y GoISec - Updated Thu May 2, 2013

    GoISecs have performed well on positive WPI inflation surprise and drop in global commodity prices • Reduction of withholding tax on debt FIIs to accelerate inflows to GoISecs • Target on our long 4Y GoISec trade recommendation extended to 7.15%; ...

  • India – Withholding tax lowered for debt FIIs - Updated Tue April 30, 2013

    • Government lowers withholding tax on FII investments in GoISecs and corporate bonds to 5% from 20% • The move is supportive of GoISecs; stay long 4Y GoISecs (current 7.53%, entry 7.82%, target 7.50%, stop-loss 8.00%) • USD-INR is likely to trade...

  • India – Withholding tax lowered for debt FIIs - Updated Tue April 30, 2013

    • Government lowers withholding tax on FII investments in GoISecs and corporate bonds to 5% from 20% • The move is supportive of GoISecs; stay long 4Y GoISecs (current 7.53%, entry 7.82%, target 7.50%, stop-loss 8.00%) • USD-INR is likely to trade...

  • Asia – Outperforming - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    Not too hot and not too cold – this is the best way to describe Asia’s growth in 2013. • Support for growth is coming from many sources: increased confidence, domestic spending and intra-regional trade. • Although growth could be even stronger, ...

  • India – Mild recovery in a busy political year - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    We expect a mild growth recovery on policy-induced investment • Better global growth prospects, lower inflation, interest rates to help • Political uncertainty has increased probability of an earlier election • Failure to provide policy clarity...

  • 11-Apr – MAS to keep FX policy unchanged - Updated Wed April 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Loan growth was likely strong in March • Euro area – February output to reflect French and German resilience • India – February industrial activity likely slumped again • Market focus • We maintain our long-held c...

  • Introducing SIGMA: A GoISec positioning indicator - Updated Tue April 2, 2013

    We introduce the Standard Chartered Indian Government Bond Market Allocation (SIGMA) indicator • SIGMA is based on key market participants’ GoISec ownership patterns and trading activity • SIGMA-based long-only trading strategy produced better ret...

  • India – Reforms meet politics - Updated Tue April 2, 2013

    Shifting coalitions in the parliament raise fear of a reform slowdown • National elections are more likely to occur in Q4-2013 than earlier • Reforms through executive decisions are still possible, but risk reform fatigue among investors if macro ...

  • India – Trimming our rate-cut expectations - Updated Wed March 20, 2013

    We now expect the RBI to cut the repo rate to 7.25% in FY14, instead of 7.00% previously • We lower our duration stance on GolSecs to Neutral from Overweight; take profit on long 10Y GoISec • We recommend buying 4Y GoISec (8.07% July 2017) at yi...

  • 18-Mar – RBI to tread cautiously - Updated Sun March 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Further SDA rate cuts may come later rather than sooner • UK – February inflation may have eased, but pressure lingers • Euro area – German ZEW to take the shine off of a good run of data • Market focus • RB...

  • India – More monetary policy easing ahead - Updated Thu March 14, 2013

    We expect the RBI to cut the repo rate on 19 March; monetary policy guidance is likely to be cautious • The rates market is divided over a 25bps rate cut; stay Overweight GoISec duration • We recommend holding 10Y GoISecs; current: 7.86%, target: ...

  • Asia Focus - Transforming, rebalancing, outperforming - Updated Wed March 13, 2013

    • The global economy is recovering, despite the weakness in the West. It will be difficult for the US to achieve more than 2% GDP growth this year; fiscal tightening and policy uncertainty will cast shadows on the turnaround in the housing and energ...

  • 11-Mar – AXJ capital inflows, but no FX rally - Updated Sun March 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Domestic prices are expected to remain low for longer • Philippines – High base effect likely suppressed January export growth • India – February trade deficit might provide cues for monetary policy • Market focus •...



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14-Apr – AXJ FX revisions amid divergent...

Top 3 data/events • India – Inflation likely moved up in March • Germany – ZEW may show investors shrugging off uncertainties • US – Not necessarily a spring rebound for core retail sales • Market focus • Weaker China data and reviving bond inflows trigger USD-AXJ forecast ...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.