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  • India – A budget beyond numbers - Updated Thu June 26, 2014

    The NDA government could surprise by maintaining the initial FY15 fiscal deficit target of 4.1% of GDP • This will hinge on higher divestment/dividend proceeds and no populist measures being announced • No room for higher expenditure; reallocatio...

  • 24-Jun – Japan is making some progress on reform - Updated Mon June 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • High crude oil prices pose a risk to our IDR bond and IGB outlooks • Vietnam – Q2 GDP likely accelerated slightly • US – New-home sales likely edged lower; home prices continued to rise • Market focus • The updated growth ...

  • Asia – Leverage uncovered: An update - Updated Tue June 17, 2014

    China’s corporate leverage metrics are becoming more stretched, even as the economy slows China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand have credit-GDP growth gaps above 5ppt over the past five years Continued pick-up in Malaysia’s household leverage, de...

  • Asia – Three counter-attacks - Updated Tue June 17, 2014

    Asia’s leverage issues are confined to certain pockets and are not an across-the-board concern • Asia’s productivity performance has been solid across the board since 2000 • It is not an 'importless' recovery in the West – we expect external dem...

  • India – Limited constraints on RBI intervention - Updated Tue June 17, 2014

    The RBI has intervened substantially in the FX market to absorb capital inflows and limit volatility • Concerns are that excess INR liquidity will be created and the RBI will incur quasi-fiscal costs • We estimate that the RBI can intervene c.USD ...

  • Improving SIGMA – IGB market positioning indicator - Updated Tue June 17, 2014

    We improve our SIGMA IGB market positioning indicator by including foreign investor activity • Despite high market volatility in the past year, SIGMA marginally outperformed iBoxx GEMX India index • SIGMA signal for June is moderately bullish on d...

  • 13-Jun – Middle East unsettles oil markets, again - Updated Thu June 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – May WPI likely to have stayed about flat • Philippines – Remittance growth to support current account • Euro area – Inflation set to slide further • Market focus • Iraq’s territorial and national integrity is bein...

  • 12-Jun – PBoC declares a ceasefire? - Updated Wed June 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ likely to maintain its status quo • India – May CPI was likely elevated; April IIP probably improved • US – Debt-loaded consumers on a shopping spree, but can it last? • Market focus • China media report sugges...

  • 09-Jun – China: Policy easing may stabilise growth - Updated Sun June 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Exports likely remained strong in April • India − The SIGMA signal turns bullish for duration in June • United States – No surprises in May’s employment report • Market focus • Growth momentum likely remained ...

  • Asian rates – Enter 5/10Y steepeners in MYR and KRW IRS - Updated Fri June 6, 2014

    Despite more aggressive ECB easing than expected, we see directional opportunities outside Asia • The ECB’s announcement adds to local factors supporting 5/10Y steepeners in Malaysia, Korea • We recommend outright shorts in 10Y MYR and 10Y PHP bon...

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13-May – Malaysia’s growth likely...

Top 3 data/events • India – We expect the April trade deficit to have narrowed • Philippines – We expect no change in BSP’s policy rate decision • US – April consumer spending may show continued torpor • Market focus • We expect GDP growth to have risen 5.4% y/y in Q1, versus 5.8% in...

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