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  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and PHP - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD • Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...

  • SC FIRST – Buy 10Y South African bonds - Updated Fri March 14, 2014

    South African bonds are well placed to benefit from the new and strongly positive EM bond signals • Our directional signal has now turned positive: investors in aggregate are now buying, not selling • Our spread signal has now turned positive, s...

  • 13-Mar – IDR and THB rallies to stall near-term - Updated Wed March 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ minutes to shed more light on future policy stance • India – February WPI likely slipped below 5% • US – Retail sales likely picked up mildly as the weather improved • Market focus • We believe the IDR and TH...

  • 11-Mar – A tale of two non-consensus calls - Updated Mon March 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – CPI to provide more reasons to cheer; IIP to disappoint • South Africa – Q4 current account deficit likely to have narrowed • Euro area – German, French and Italian data suggest upside to Jan IP • Market focus •...

  • 07-Mar – China, commodities and currencies - Updated Thu March 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Trade deficit to stay in single digits • Japan – C/A was likely in deficit again in January • US – February’s job report to show a hiring slowdown amid bad weather • Market focus • China’s February trade data to so...

  • Asia – Leverage uncovered: An update - Updated Thu March 6, 2014

    China remains the top country of concern in the region on most credit metrics • Corporate-sector leverage has moved up on our list of concerns across the region • Singapore’s corporate-sector debt metrics have worsened, on average, driven by the l...

  • 27-Feb – The hidden North Asia risk story - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely fell on adverse base effect and external factors • India – Yet another quarter of weak economic activity • US – Durable goods orders: More than the weather • Market focus • Authorities’ desire to di...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for PHP - Updated Fri February 21, 2014

    • In January, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; large USD buyers vs. IDR, TWD, CNH • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and CNY; buyers of USD vs. CNH, TWD and PHP • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR and ...

  • India – Finance minister walks a tightrope - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • The FY14 fiscal deficit announcement is better than budgeted owing to expenditure compression • Adherence to the FY15 fiscal deficit target requires expenditure cuts; tax-revenue projections are high • We will watch for any revisions to FY15 ...

  • Crude palm oil – India’s consumption soars - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    • Market sentiment on CPO is moderately bullish and has been lifted by surprisingly strong Indian demand • Production in East Malaysia will have a large bearing on prices this year relative to previous seasons • We expect tighter end-season inven...

  • 13-Feb – China’s January surprise - Updated Wed February 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – January WPI is likely to surprise • Euro area – Chance of an upside surprise for flash Q4 GDP • US – January retail sales likely off to a slow start in 2014 • Market focus • January’s trade growth accelerated; mar...

  • India - Respecting the red line - Updated Wed February 12, 2014

    • FM is likely to meet the FY14 fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP, project a FY15 deficit at 4.2% • Spending cuts, higher non-tax revenues will allow adherence to the fiscal consolidation plan • Gross borrowing likely to be c.INR 5.8-6.0tn; w...

  • India – FY14 GDP estimate shows sluggish growth - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    4.9% advance GDP growth estimate is better than FY13’s 4.5% on statistical factors, government spending • The economy remains trapped in slow-growth mode, with weak investment growth and consumption • Positive election outcome is necessary for a...

  • 06-Feb – Draghi is likely to downplay deflation risks - Updated Wed February 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – The SIGMA signal remains bullish for duration in February • India – Advance GDP estimate likely to show below-potential growth • Malaysia – Exports likely remained healthy in December • Market focus • We do not expe...

  • India – RBI sweetens the bitter pill - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    • RBI surprises by hiking the repo rate to 8% from 7.75%; but tempers fears of further near-term hikes • We expect the repo rate to remain at 8% at the April policy meeting and for the remainder of 2014 • Risk of further hikes cannot be ruled ou...

  • India – Monetary policy to get an anchor - Updated Wed January 22, 2014

    • RBI committee report recommends using headline CPI as the nominal anchor for monetary policy • Recommendation is a step in the right direction; markets might interpret it as hawkish in the near term • Committee targets reducing CPI inflation to ...

  • Liquidity needs RBI support; long 5Y GoISec hit target - Updated Tue January 21, 2014

    The government’s fiscal restraint is likely to widen the liquidity deficit to c.INR 1.6tn by end-March • The impact on the overnight rate will be limited if the RBI continues its liquidity support • We have taken a profit of 35bps on our long 5Y G...

  • India – More positive surprises on the C/A deficit [Correction] - Updated Mon January 20, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 15 January 2014. Figure 8, corrects remittances and investment income. • We lower our FY14 C/A deficit forecast further to USD 35bn, the smallest since FY09 • FY14 BoP surplus gains likely to remain limited as ‘o...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal on KRW, bullish on TWD - Updated Thu January 16, 2014

    In December, our clients were large USD sellers vs. INR and KRW; large USD buyers vs. IDR, HKD, PHP • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and KRW; buyers of USD vs. PHP, HKD, IDR and THB • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR ...

  • Asian FX PCA – RV in focus on mixed global IP cycle - Updated Tue January 14, 2014

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; rise in US IP cycle is countered by the fall in China’s IP cycle • Indonesia’s exports and trade balance have improved substantially, in contrast with recent IDR sell-off • Widening MYR-USD rates spread shoul...



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27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher...

Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We expect the government to adhere to the...

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