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  • 26-Jul – Beijing is ready for more targeted support - Updated Thu July 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – GoISecs to trade weak on tight liquidity • South Korea – Mild dip in IP, sizeable C/A surplus expected • Rates – EM bond flows stabilise, but Thailand and Turkey are still seeing outflows • Market focus • China’s ...

  • India – RBI acts decisively - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    RBI takes strong steps to tighten INR liquidity, reversing its recent monetary-easing stance • Decisive action could lead to a short-term rebound in the INR, but more measures are needed to tackle structural challenges • Rates market sentiment lik...

  • India – Weak pricing power to keep WPI in check - Updated Mon July 15, 2013

    • We revise down our WPI inflation projection to 5.00% from 6.25% y/y previously • Weaker pricing power amid a subdued economic outlook should offset the impact of INR depreciation • Core inflation to bottom out around 1.0-1.5% in September/Octobe...

  • India – Growth concerns to limit OIS steepening - Updated Thu July 11, 2013

    FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA • The 1Y/5Y OIS slope is sensitive to growth; subdued growth expectations to limit curve steepening • Rising WPI inflation amid subdued growth expectations tends to invert the 1Y/5Y OIS curve • Despite the near-term stee...

  • 11-Jul – China slowing overshadows AXJ FX - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Higher CPI, weaker IIP probably weighed on sentiment • Japan – BoJ likely to lift economic assessment, partly on improving IP • Euro area – Industrial production likely to have fallen in May • Market focus • China’s...

  • Asia leverage uncovered - Updated Tue July 9, 2013

    This ‘At a Glance’ report summarises the key points from ‘SCout, 1 July 2013 – Asia leverage uncovered’, which analysed leverage and solvency across corporate, household and government sectors in Asia. • After years of rapid economic growth, Asia e...

  • Food security bill: A costly affair - Updated Fri July 5, 2013

    • In a populist move, the government introduces the food security bill via ordinance • The bill may increase economic costs by widening the fiscal deficit, raising inflationary pressures • Inadequate food distribution mechanism may limit the posit...

  • 05-Jul – NFP unlikely to close the QE door right now - Updated Thu July 4, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Liquidity easing is likely temporary • Japan – Trade deficit is unlikely to erode the current account surplus • Taiwan – June trade data to show economy on the path to recovery Market focus • We now expect a gain ...

  • 03-Jul – There’s a new sheriff in town - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Signal from SIGMA remains bearish on GoISecs • United States – Interest rates on student debt: a deal is still possible • Mexico – Correlation breakdown • Market focus • We expect the ECB and BoE to keep policy on ...

  • NEA (ex-CNY) and INR are cheap relative to SEA - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    CNY’s powerful trade-weighted advance makes it a major AXJ outperformer in trade-weighted terms • Only INR has seen substantial NEER losses recently and is now undervalued on a REER basis • Valuation and external balances are KRW- and TWD- ...

  • India – Slower capital inflows to trim FY14 BoP surplus - Updated Mon July 1, 2013

    We revise down our FY14 BoP surplus forecast to USD 10bn from USD 13bn • We expect the C/A deficit at 4% of GDP on a smaller gold import bill, slower domestic economic activity • However, slower capital inflows should partially negate positive im...

  • Asia leverage uncovered - Updated Mon July 1, 2013

    The following is a joint research report from the Equity and Regional Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content. • Unprecedented approach to systemic credit r...

  • Assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze - Updated Fri June 28, 2013

    • NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA • We outline key parameters and local factors in assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze • FX forward markets play a role in determining market behaviour and how USD funding stress is reflected • The mo...

  • India – INR at 60: More pain than gain - Updated Wed June 26, 2013

    • Weaker INR could reverse some recent improvements in India’s macroeconomic conditions • Inflation, fiscal deficit may worsen; positive C/A impact is unlikely, and capital flows may slow • Kick-starting the investment cycle is crucial, as other ...

  • INR – The pain is not in the price yet [Correction] - Updated Mon June 24, 2013

    FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA • This supersedes the version dated 21 June 2013. Page 1, corrects recommendation for Indian importers. • USD-INR is likely to extend gains into early Q3 on Fed QE tapering concerns, capital outflows • We look for a par...

  • INR – The pain is not in the price yet - Updated Fri June 21, 2013

    • NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA • USD-INR is likely to extend gains into early Q3 on Fed QE tapering concerns, capital outflows • We look for a partial USD-INR retracement in late Q3, once tapering is priced in and EM rallies broadly • A durable ...

  • India – RBI is cautious now, data-dependent later - Updated Mon June 17, 2013

    • The RBI leaves policy rates unchanged on recent INR weakness and upside risks to inflation • We expect no rate cut in July on marginally higher inflation; a rate cut in H2-FY14 is data-dependent • Supply pressure to offset support from rate-cut...

  • India – We expect a repo rate cut; it is a close call - Updated Fri June 14, 2013

    • We expect the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25bps on 17 June • Recent INR weakness and inflation worries pose risks to this view and may keep the RBI on hold • Rates market does not expect a repo rate cut; stay Neutral GoISec duration • Indicat...

  • 14-Jun – Surprise BI rate hike - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Remittance inflows likely rebounded after a weak March • Singapore – Export performance expected to have remained lacklustre • India – Wide trade deficit and weaker INR represent risks to our rate-cut call • M...

  • 13-Jun – Signals to watch for a turnaround in EM - Updated Wed June 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – May WPI likely to be marginally lower • Indonesia – BI measures to provide short-term market relief • United States – A still-elevated gap between confidence and hard data • Market focus • EM markets have sold off ...



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11-Jul – India: A few hits, a few misses

Top 3 data/events • China – Slide in USD-CNY fixings may signal more CNY strength • Singapore – External demand to mitigate domestic softness • Euro area – Industrial production expected to dip on a monthly basis • Market focus • FY15 fiscal deficit target maintained at 4.1% of GDP; ...

In Media

The World Cup Edition - A mix of economics, markets and football

In this special edition of the Global Focus, we invite Toh Hsien Min, Global Head of Quantitative Optimisation, to re-run his model for the World Cup results. It correctly predicted in 2010 that Spain would win. This time around, it predicts that Brazil will lift the trophy in front of their home crowd.