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  • 09-Jun – China: Policy easing may stabilise growth - Updated Sun June 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Exports likely remained strong in April • India − The SIGMA signal turns bullish for duration in June • United States – No surprises in May’s employment report • Market focus • Growth momentum likely remained ...

  • Asian rates – Enter 5/10Y steepeners in MYR and KRW IRS - Updated Fri June 6, 2014

    Despite more aggressive ECB easing than expected, we see directional opportunities outside Asia • The ECB’s announcement adds to local factors supporting 5/10Y steepeners in Malaysia, Korea • We recommend outright shorts in 10Y MYR and 10Y PHP bon...

  • India – RBI softens its stance - Updated Tue June 3, 2014

    • RBI leaves the repo and reverse repo rate unchanged; reduces the SLR by 50bps to 22.5% • Expectations of rate cuts in the immediate future are premature in our view • RBI to await clarity on fiscal policy, monsoon and impact of any growth gain...

  • 02-Jun – RBI likely to stay on hold - Updated Sun June 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Inflation likely remained low in May • Indonesia – Inflation likely slowed in May • Australia – RBA expected to indicate ‘a period of stability in rates’ • Market focus • We expect the RBI to keep the repo ra...

  • India: Light at the end of tunnel - Updated Fri May 30, 2014

    Improvement in FY14 GDP data to 4.7% y/y from FY13 4.5% was primarily driven by agriculture • Economic activity likely to improve on decisive political mandate • We keep our FY15 and FY16 GDP growth forecasts as we await more clarity on policies a...

  • India – Agenda for the new government - Updated Mon May 26, 2014

    Providing final clearances for stalled projects to top NDA’s growth agenda • Measures to support infrastructure, urbanisation and manufacturing to help revive the investment cycle • Controls on food hoarding, distribution reforms are expected to ...

  • SCTF – Corporates reduce USD-JPY shorts - Updated Tue May 20, 2014

    We add G10 FX flows and positioning to our proprietary flow analysis of Asian and African currencies • G10: Short USD positioning is reduced in JPY; long USD positioning remains heavy in NZD • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. INR, KRW, CN...

  • Productivity in Asia - Updated Wed May 14, 2014

    Productivity, the rate of output (GDP) per unit of input (capital and labour), is a critical driver of sustainable economic growth and income. The perception that Asia is a low-productivity region is out of date. Since 2000, Asia’s productivity perf...

  • 13-May – Sell AXJ in May and go away? - Updated Mon May 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – April WPI likely stayed elevated • Japan – April CGPI may reflect the sales-tax effect • UK – Unemployment likely fell further • Market focus • Q2 is a weak quarter for AXJ currencies versus USD, but it is quart...

  • 12-May – Falling inflation justifies China policy ease - Updated Sun May 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – The SIGMA signal turns mildly bearish for duration in May • Euro area – German ZEW survey expected to show improved sentiment • US – Consumers likely back on track after a winter derailment • Market focus • China’s ...

  • 09-May – We revise down our USD-MXN forecasts - Updated Thu May 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Polling ends next week; markets await exit poll predictions • Japan – March current account likely remained positive • Malaysia – Industrial production growth was likely slower in March • Market focus • Banxico ...

  • SC FIRST– Staying long, still favouring carry - Updated Thu May 8, 2014

    Direction and spread signals stay positive for the third consecutive month • These signals support our view that EM yields will fall and high-yielders will outperform • Relative-value signals support our positive Thai 5Y bonds and Overweight COP F...

  • Asia’s productivity: The new story - Updated Tue May 6, 2014

    Productivity, the rate of output (GDP) per unit of input (capital and labour), is a critical driver of sustainable economic growth and income. The perception that Asia is a low-productivity region is out of date. Since 2000, Asia’s productivity perf...

  • Global trade unbundled - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    • Trade is set to accelerate, but patterns will change • Faster GDP growth in Europe and the US will boost world trade, after a weak performance in 2012-13. • We believe the trade-GDP growth ratio can return to the 1.3-1.5 range. • Recent agree...

  • India – Assessing potential upside risks to inflation - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    • We keep our FY15 CPI inflation forecast at 8%; however, drought could push inflation to double digits • Stronger-than-expected economic recovery could put upward pressure on headline CPI, albeit with a lag • CPI basket composition keeps it mor...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and NGN - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Asia: In March, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY, SGD, INR; USD buyers vs. HKD, THB, CNH • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. INR, KRW, CNY; long USD positioning is large vs. IDR, CNH • Africa: SCTF Position Index shows clients are...

  • IGB valuations are attractive; buy 5Y IGBs - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    We believe recent pessimism on the IGB market is overdone • Improving INR outlook, near-term supply and stable policy rates are key positives for IGBs • We shift our IGB outlook to Positive from Neutral; buy 5Y IGBs at 8.95%; target: 8.65%, stop-l...

  • India – Be cautious not worried about inflation - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    March WPI surprises on the upside, CPI prints in line with expectations • CPI and WPI trajectory still looks comfortable for most of 2014, barring any weather-related shocks • We cautiously maintain our FY15 CPI forecast at 8% with a downward bia...

  • 14-Apr – AXJ FX revisions amid divergent volatility - Updated Sun April 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Inflation likely moved up in March • Germany – ZEW may show investors shrugging off uncertainties • US – Not necessarily a spring rebound for core retail sales • Market focus • Weaker China data and reviving bond i...

  • India: Reviving growth, brick by brick - Updated Fri April 11, 2014

    The following is a joint research report from the Regional and Equity Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content. • Growth needs to be the top priority for Indi...



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22-Apr – Clouds gather over the INR

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP likely contracted again in March • Taiwan – IP data likely to have slowed due to base effects • South Korea – Q1 GDP likely to have been subdued • Market focus • India’s equity-market outperformance has stalled amid softer India export data • INR’s...

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