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  • India – More pain, then gain - Updated Thu August 29, 2013

    • We lower our FY14 GDP growth forecast to 4.7%, acknowledge upside risks to inflation and fiscal deficit • We raise our USD-INR forecasts sharply higher, but expect a pullback in Q4 on C/A improvement • We raise our GoISec yield forecasts on weak...

  • 29-Aug – Moderate recovery likely continued in Japan - Updated Wed August 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Africa – We close our receiver on the 2Y swap • India – Apr-Jun 2013 GDP growth likely slipped further • US – Q2 GDP growth expected to be revised slightly up Market focus • Japan’s July data is likely to show a mode...

  • Asia macro – Time for a ‘reality check’ - Updated Wed August 28, 2013

    • Talk of Asia being in a 1997-98-style crisis dramatically overstates the risks • Fundamental indicators actually suggest a pick-up, not a slowdown in H2-2013 growth • India’s external situation is not as precarious as it was in 1991 • AXJ curr...

  • 20-Aug – Thailand enters a technical recession - Updated Mon August 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – GoISec yields touch five-year highs • Malaysia – Economic growth likely picked up in Q2 • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on September QE tapering • Market focus • Thailand’s Q2 GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q, regi...

  • India: Cautious about USD 11bn package - Updated Tue August 13, 2013

    Finance minister expects USD 11bn of incremental inflows in FY14 once new measures are implemented • Fresh inflows should help the external sector, but limited details on these measures keep us cautious • We stay Neutral on the INR and expect a sh...

  • 13-Aug – USD 11bn package to support the INR - Updated Mon August 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – WPI inflation likely edged higher in July • UK – Labour market data provides a litmus test on MPC decision • US – Retail sales likely bounced in July, which would comfort the Fed • Market focus • FM expects USD 11bn...

  • 12-Aug – Early green shoots in China - Updated Sun August 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – External demand likely improved in June • Euro area – Positive IP growth in June thanks to Germany • India – The wait is not yet over for the INR • Market focus • Official data suggest growth improved in July,...

  • INR – Awaiting the magic wand - Updated Fri August 9, 2013

    Investors are excited about Rajan’s appointment as the new RBI Governor • Rajan’s appointment has coincided with reports of a comprehensive plan to tackle the C/A deficit • Together, these factors could trigger a powerful short-term rally in the I...

  • India – Liquidity surprise may prompt more measures - Updated Mon August 5, 2013

    The liquidity deficit has narrowed unexpectedly, despite the RBI’s tightening measures • The RBI may announce more measures if the narrow liquidity deficit persists • The RBI may sell short-term securities, fine-tune the LAF and the ECR, or even t...

  • 05-Aug – The RBA: 225 not out - Updated Sun August 4, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Higher food, energy prices to support inflation print • India – SIGMA provides a bearish signal for duration in August • US – Focus turns to ISM services, which probably stayed healthy • Market focus • RBA is...

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14-Apr – AXJ FX revisions amid divergent...

Top 3 data/events • India – Inflation likely moved up in March • Germany – ZEW may show investors shrugging off uncertainties • US – Not necessarily a spring rebound for core retail sales • Market focus • Weaker China data and reviving bond inflows trigger USD-AXJ forecast ...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.