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  • INR – Reward and risk in the rupee - Updated Tue November 4, 2014

    We expect USD-INR to remain range-bound into 2015; short-term risks are skewed to the upside India’s macroeconomic fundamentals are improving and the INR remains attractive However, the RBI continues to build FX reserves, and local importers are u...

  • India – RBI likely to be patient, despite softer inflation - Updated Mon October 20, 2014

    We revise down our FY15 and FY16 CPI forecasts on recent positive inflation surprises We maintain our call for unchanged repo rate in FY16, though probability of a cut in H2-FY16 has emerged Achieving the January 2016 6.0% CPI target still looks d...

  • Asia Macro Trackers – Introducing our new indicators - Updated Wed October 15, 2014

    These are completely re-worked versions of the economic heatmaps, and they introduce more-forward-looking elements in addition to showing how economies have been performing. • Our trackers show that economic growth should improve in 8 of the 12 Asi...

  • 13-Oct – MAS to stay on hold, despite currency wars - Updated Sun October 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – September’s commodity prices may have slowed inflation • Euro area – Industrial production likely contracted in August • UK – Inflation pressures remain muted • Market focus • We expect the MAS to maintain its sta...

  • Asia macro trackers – Introducing our new indicators - Updated Fri October 10, 2014

    We introduce a new suite of indicators to track macro performance in the region • These include GDP and subsidy trackers, and heatmaps for monetary conditions, inflation and BoP • Indicators suggest a slightly better growth performance in the reg...

  • 10-Oct – China’s strong September surplus - Updated Thu October 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Moderating CPI should be in line with the RBI’s target • Singapore – GDP growth to improve modestly • Canada – Record drop in private payrolls likely reversed in September • Market focus • Export growth adds to reco...

  • 09-Oct – FOMC: Considerably cautious - Updated Wed October 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Robust export growth likely to continue • China – Credit growth remains in low gear • India – Industrial production likely to remain weak • Market focus • Fed Minutes had a dovish undertone, revealing worries ...

  • 03-Oct – NFPs: Another step towards a 2015 rate hike - Updated Thu October 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – The SIGMA signal is bullish for duration in October • Malaysia – 2015 Budget is likely to signal continued fiscal consolidation • Thailand – Additional fiscal measures to jump-start the economy • Market focus • Augu...

  • India – RBI reaffirms our extended pause view - Updated Tue September 30, 2014

    • The RBI keeps the repo rate unchanged; reiterates upside risks to January 2016 CPI target • The Monetary Policy Report quantifies upside risk to Jan 2016 CPI target under base-line assumptions • IGBs to trade range-bound amid stable policy rat...

  • SC FIRST – Brazil: Every cloud has a Silva lining - Updated Fri September 26, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt • Allocations moved towards Brazil in August on Marina Silva, a catalyst for change; now Dilma fights back • Brazil’s subsequent underperformance makes it cheap and positioning is not skew...



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13-May – Malaysia’s growth likely...

Top 3 data/events • India – We expect the April trade deficit to have narrowed • Philippines – We expect no change in BSP’s policy rate decision • US – April consumer spending may show continued torpor • Market focus • We expect GDP growth to have risen 5.4% y/y in Q1, versus 5.8% in...

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