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  • India − Populism to the fore - Updated Fri August 30, 2013

    • The land acquisition and food security bills are important pieces of legislation, but are populist in nature • Land bill improves compensation to landowners but will slow the industrialisation process, raise costs • The food security bill may...

  • India – More pain, then gain - Updated Thu August 29, 2013

    • We lower our FY14 GDP growth forecast to 4.7%, acknowledge upside risks to inflation and fiscal deficit • We raise our USD-INR forecasts sharply higher, but expect a pullback in Q4 on C/A improvement • We raise our GoISec yield forecasts on weak...

  • 29-Aug – Moderate recovery likely continued in Japan - Updated Wed August 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Africa – We close our receiver on the 2Y swap • India – Apr-Jun 2013 GDP growth likely slipped further • US – Q2 GDP growth expected to be revised slightly up Market focus • Japan’s July data is likely to show a mode...

  • Asia macro – Time for a ‘reality check’ - Updated Wed August 28, 2013

    • Talk of Asia being in a 1997-98-style crisis dramatically overstates the risks • Fundamental indicators actually suggest a pick-up, not a slowdown in H2-2013 growth • India’s external situation is not as precarious as it was in 1991 • AXJ curr...

  • 20-Aug – Thailand enters a technical recession - Updated Mon August 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – GoISec yields touch five-year highs • Malaysia – Economic growth likely picked up in Q2 • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on September QE tapering • Market focus • Thailand’s Q2 GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q, regi...

  • India: Cautious about USD 11bn package - Updated Tue August 13, 2013

    Finance minister expects USD 11bn of incremental inflows in FY14 once new measures are implemented • Fresh inflows should help the external sector, but limited details on these measures keep us cautious • We stay Neutral on the INR and expect a sh...

  • 13-Aug – USD 11bn package to support the INR - Updated Mon August 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – WPI inflation likely edged higher in July • UK – Labour market data provides a litmus test on MPC decision • US – Retail sales likely bounced in July, which would comfort the Fed • Market focus • FM expects USD 11bn...

  • 12-Aug – Early green shoots in China - Updated Sun August 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – External demand likely improved in June • Euro area – Positive IP growth in June thanks to Germany • India – The wait is not yet over for the INR • Market focus • Official data suggest growth improved in July,...

  • INR – Awaiting the magic wand - Updated Fri August 9, 2013

    Investors are excited about Rajan’s appointment as the new RBI Governor • Rajan’s appointment has coincided with reports of a comprehensive plan to tackle the C/A deficit • Together, these factors could trigger a powerful short-term rally in the I...

  • India – Liquidity surprise may prompt more measures - Updated Mon August 5, 2013

    The liquidity deficit has narrowed unexpectedly, despite the RBI’s tightening measures • The RBI may announce more measures if the narrow liquidity deficit persists • The RBI may sell short-term securities, fine-tune the LAF and the ECR, or even t...

  • 05-Aug – The RBA: 225 not out - Updated Sun August 4, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Higher food, energy prices to support inflation print • India – SIGMA provides a bearish signal for duration in August • US – Focus turns to ISM services, which probably stayed healthy • Market focus • RBA is...

  • US versus China – Who matters more in Asia? - Updated Wed July 31, 2013

    Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea are more affected by China, rather than US, linkages • India, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand are more exposed to the US • We examine the linkages via overall growth, and the trade, tourism and FDI c...

  • India – RBI focuses on INR stability with a hope of easing ahead - Updated Tue July 30, 2013

    • RBI leaves policy rates unchanged; a dovish policy statement focuses on currency stability • Reversal of liquidity-tightening measures and a return to monetary policy easing depends on INR stability • Presses for urgent action to reduce C/A def...

  • 26-Jul – Beijing is ready for more targeted support - Updated Thu July 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – GoISecs to trade weak on tight liquidity • South Korea – Mild dip in IP, sizeable C/A surplus expected • Rates – EM bond flows stabilise, but Thailand and Turkey are still seeing outflows • Market focus • China’s ...

  • India – RBI acts decisively - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    RBI takes strong steps to tighten INR liquidity, reversing its recent monetary-easing stance • Decisive action could lead to a short-term rebound in the INR, but more measures are needed to tackle structural challenges • Rates market sentiment lik...

  • India – Weak pricing power to keep WPI in check - Updated Mon July 15, 2013

    • We revise down our WPI inflation projection to 5.00% from 6.25% y/y previously • Weaker pricing power amid a subdued economic outlook should offset the impact of INR depreciation • Core inflation to bottom out around 1.0-1.5% in September/Octobe...

  • India – Growth concerns to limit OIS steepening - Updated Thu July 11, 2013

    FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA • The 1Y/5Y OIS slope is sensitive to growth; subdued growth expectations to limit curve steepening • Rising WPI inflation amid subdued growth expectations tends to invert the 1Y/5Y OIS curve • Despite the near-term stee...

  • 11-Jul – China slowing overshadows AXJ FX - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Higher CPI, weaker IIP probably weighed on sentiment • Japan – BoJ likely to lift economic assessment, partly on improving IP • Euro area – Industrial production likely to have fallen in May • Market focus • China’s...

  • Asia leverage uncovered - Updated Tue July 9, 2013

    This ‘At a Glance’ report summarises the key points from ‘SCout, 1 July 2013 – Asia leverage uncovered’, which analysed leverage and solvency across corporate, household and government sectors in Asia. • After years of rapid economic growth, Asia e...

  • Food security bill: A costly affair - Updated Fri July 5, 2013

    • In a populist move, the government introduces the food security bill via ordinance • The bill may increase economic costs by widening the fiscal deficit, raising inflationary pressures • Inadequate food distribution mechanism may limit the posit...



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14-Apr – AXJ FX revisions amid divergent...

Top 3 data/events • India – Inflation likely moved up in March • Germany – ZEW may show investors shrugging off uncertainties • US – Not necessarily a spring rebound for core retail sales • Market focus • Weaker China data and reviving bond inflows trigger USD-AXJ forecast ...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.