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  • SCTF – Positioning supports further THB gains - Updated Fri July 25, 2014

    G10: Corporates are very short USD-NOK; custodians boosted USD-JPY longs substantially • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. INR and TWD; long USD positioning is large vs. THB and IDR • Africa: SCTF Corporate Flow Index shows clients shifted ...

  • International settlement of IGBs would be positive - Updated Fri July 25, 2014

    In the budget, the finance minister mentioned making Indian debt eligible for international settlement • Such a move would substantially ease operational issues faced by foreigners in accessing local debt • For international settlement to be effe...

  • Commonwealth trade unbundled - Updated Thu July 17, 2014

    Trade between Commonwealth countries fell from 11% of global exports in 1950 to about 1.9% in 1990 • The share is rising again and is now 2.3%; overall Commonwealth exports are 14% of world trade • The rapid growth of many emerging Commonwealth co...

  • 15-Jul – What lurks beneath in China - Updated Mon July 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely remained stable in June • India – The SIGMA signal turns bullish for duration in July • Chile – Time to cut • Market focus • With housing in recession and credit growth slowing, China’s recovery ...

  • 11-Jul – India: A few hits, a few misses - Updated Thu July 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Slide in USD-CNY fixings may signal more CNY strength • Singapore – External demand to mitigate domestic softness • Euro area – Industrial production expected to dip on a monthly basis • Market focus • FY15 fiscal ...

  • India: This is just the beginning - Updated Thu July 10, 2014

    FY15 fiscal-deficit target maintained at 4.1% of GDP; some revenue targets are still too optimistic • FDI liberalisation in defence, insurance, e-commerce is positive • Government support given to consumption and investment, albeit within limit...

  • 10-Jul – Indonesia election update - Updated Wed July 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Credit growth will likely stabilise from here • India – May IIP likely reached a 15-month high • Latam – Tough times, easing bias • Market focus • Quick-count results suggest a Jokowi victory, albeit by a narrow ma...

  • 09-Jul – BoK: On hold, awaiting more data - Updated Tue July 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade surplus expected to have rebounded • BNM and BI – BNM likely to hike rates; BI likely to keep them on hold • India – A budget beyond numbers • Market focus • We expect the BoK to keep the base rate at 2.50% in...

  • INR – Reserve Bank of India at a tipping point? - Updated Thu July 3, 2014

    End-May RBI data on its FX forward positions point to substantial FX intervention in the month • Technically, RBI intervention can be extended, but high carry/low volatility mix of late-H1 is unsustainable • We recommend that real-money funds rem...

  • India – A budget beyond numbers - Updated Thu June 26, 2014

    The NDA government could surprise by maintaining the initial FY15 fiscal deficit target of 4.1% of GDP • This will hinge on higher divestment/dividend proceeds and no populist measures being announced • No room for higher expenditure; reallocatio...

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27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher...

Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We expect the government to adhere to the...

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