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  • India – RBI pauses for clarity - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    • RBI keeps policy rates unchanged with a cautious stance as uncertainty looms on inflation • A sustained fall in CPI inflation below 7% and core inflation approaching 7% could prompt a rate cut • We expect a long pause in policy rates, as CPI ...

  • India – Finance minister walks a tightrope - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • The FY14 fiscal deficit announcement is better than budgeted owing to expenditure compression • Adherence to the FY15 fiscal deficit target requires expenditure cuts; tax-revenue projections are high • We will watch for any revisions to FY15 ...

  • India – RBI sweetens the bitter pill - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    • RBI surprises by hiking the repo rate to 8% from 7.75%; but tempers fears of further near-term hikes • We expect the repo rate to remain at 8% at the April policy meeting and for the remainder of 2014 • Risk of further hikes cannot be ruled ou...

  • India – C/A deficit: The tide has turned - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    On recent sharp narrowing of the trade deficit we revise our FY14 C/A deficit forecast to USD 45bn from USD 71.8bn • Less concern about the C/A deficit should improve foreign investors’ perception of India’s external-sector dynamics • Balance of ...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Asia Focus - Clearing skies - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    • We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...

  • India – A respite, but challenges persist - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    GDP growth is likely to improve in H2-FY14 (year ending March 2014). However, the macroeconomic environment will remain challenging due to higher inflation, rising policy rates, concerns about slippage on the FY14 fiscal deficit target ahead of next...

  • Asia overview – After the portfolio storm - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Concerns about a growth slowdown in Asia triggered by recent portfolio outflows are overblown, in our view. We stated this view in On the Ground, 28 August 2013, Asia macro – Time for a ‘reality check’. We expect growth in most countries in the regi...

  • Measuring sustainable development - Updated Wed September 18, 2013

    Most countries now aim to achieve ‘sustainable development’, not just maximum GDP growth. But what does this mean? How can it be measured? And how does it relate to the concept of human well-being and to ‘happiness economics’? • We present a new St...

  • India – Index inclusion could be a game-changer - Updated Thu September 12, 2013

    Cap on FII investment in GoISecs is a barrier to India’s inclusion in popular bond indices • Inclusion in the J.P Morgan GBI-EMGD index could attract c.USD 20-40bn into GoISecs over a year • If India were included in the GBI-EMGD, this would be a ...

  • India – New RBI governor outlines his priorities - Updated Thu September 5, 2013

    FX market stability is the immediate focus; RBI provides incentives for banks to raise more USDs • Containing inflation will remain a priority; increased transparency in monetary policy stressed • Financial-market reform and deepening financial m...

  • Asia macro – Time for a ‘reality check’ - Updated Wed August 28, 2013

    • Talk of Asia being in a 1997-98-style crisis dramatically overstates the risks • Fundamental indicators actually suggest a pick-up, not a slowdown in H2-2013 growth • India’s external situation is not as precarious as it was in 1991 • AXJ curr...

  • India: Cautious about USD 11bn package - Updated Tue August 13, 2013

    Finance minister expects USD 11bn of incremental inflows in FY14 once new measures are implemented • Fresh inflows should help the external sector, but limited details on these measures keep us cautious • We stay Neutral on the INR and expect a sh...

  • US versus China – Who matters more in Asia? - Updated Wed July 31, 2013

    Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea are more affected by China, rather than US, linkages • India, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand are more exposed to the US • We examine the linkages via overall growth, and the trade, tourism and FDI c...

  • India – RBI focuses on INR stability with a hope of easing ahead - Updated Tue July 30, 2013

    • RBI leaves policy rates unchanged; a dovish policy statement focuses on currency stability • Reversal of liquidity-tightening measures and a return to monetary policy easing depends on INR stability • Presses for urgent action to reduce C/A def...

  • India – RBI acts decisively - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    RBI takes strong steps to tighten INR liquidity, reversing its recent monetary-easing stance • Decisive action could lead to a short-term rebound in the INR, but more measures are needed to tackle structural challenges • Rates market sentiment lik...

  • Asia leverage uncovered - Updated Tue July 9, 2013

    This ‘At a Glance’ report summarises the key points from ‘SCout, 1 July 2013 – Asia leverage uncovered’, which analysed leverage and solvency across corporate, household and government sectors in Asia. • After years of rapid economic growth, Asia e...

  • India – Slower capital inflows to trim FY14 BoP surplus - Updated Mon July 1, 2013

    We revise down our FY14 BoP surplus forecast to USD 10bn from USD 13bn • We expect the C/A deficit at 4% of GDP on a smaller gold import bill, slower domestic economic activity • However, slower capital inflows should partially negate positive im...

  • Asia leverage uncovered - Updated Mon July 1, 2013

    The following is a joint research report from the Equity and Regional Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content. • Unprecedented approach to systemic credit r...

  • India – INR at 60: More pain than gain - Updated Wed June 26, 2013

    • Weaker INR could reverse some recent improvements in India’s macroeconomic conditions • Inflation, fiscal deficit may worsen; positive C/A impact is unlikely, and capital flows may slow • Kick-starting the investment cycle is crucial, as other ...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.