We expect a gradual GDP recovery in FY16; lower inflation to pave the way for 75bps of repo rate cuts
• Any deviation from the stated fiscal consolidation path would pose a risk to our current forecasts
• We expect most of the government’s recentl...
• RBI keeps policy rates unchanged with a cautious stance as uncertainty looms on inflation
• A sustained fall in CPI inflation below 7% and core inflation approaching 7% could prompt a rate cut
• We expect a long pause in policy rates, as CPI ...
• The FY14 fiscal deficit announcement is better than budgeted owing to expenditure compression
• Adherence to the FY15 fiscal deficit target requires expenditure cuts; tax-revenue projections are high
• We will watch for any revisions to FY15 ...
• RBI surprises by hiking the repo rate to 8% from 7.75%; but tempers fears of further near-term hikes
• We expect the repo rate to remain at 8% at the April policy meeting and for the remainder of 2014
• Risk of further hikes cannot be ruled ou...
On recent sharp narrowing of the trade deficit we revise our FY14 C/A deficit forecast to USD 45bn from USD 71.8bn
• Less concern about the C/A deficit should improve foreign investors’ perception of India’s external-sector dynamics
• Balance of ...
We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...
• We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in ma...
GDP growth is likely to improve in H2-FY14 (year ending March 2014). However, the macroeconomic environment will remain challenging due to higher inflation, rising policy rates, concerns about slippage on the FY14 fiscal deficit target ahead of next...
Concerns about a growth slowdown in Asia triggered by recent portfolio outflows are overblown, in our view. We stated this view in On the Ground, 28 August 2013, Asia macro – Time for a ‘reality check’. We expect growth in most countries in the regi...
Most countries now aim to achieve ‘sustainable development’, not just maximum GDP growth. But what does this mean? How can it be measured? And how does it relate to the concept of human well-being and to ‘happiness economics’?
• We present a new St...
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