• Focus: Nickel was in surplus in 2014; however, we expect the market to move into deficit in 2015
• Further rig-count falls reinforce our view that US shale oil output growth will disappear in April
• ICSG data shows copper concentrate market de...
• Focus: The fundamental outlook for OPEC has improved rapidly, particularly for H2
• Further signs of slowdown in China’s metal demand keep sentiment muted
• Brent prices have rallied above USD 60/bbl on expectations of a rapid weakening in non-O...
• Focus: Volatility in commodities has increased markedly in 2015 to date compared with last year
• A fall in China's copper concentrate imports in January points to cutbacks in refined output
• US oil drilling has fallen sharply again; market v...
• Focus: US shale oil output is set to fall m/m in April; it will fall for the rest of 2015 if prices stay low
• Base metal prices remain torn between demand pessimism and supply-side pressures
• Oil prices have rallied as the scale and speed of...
• Focus: Saudi Arabia’s exit strategy from disciplining non-OPEC producers is a pressing oil-policy issue
• Investor short positioning in copper has increased, generating significant downward price pressure
• Non-OPEC output is being hit hard, a...
• Focus: Copper-price overshoot presents an opportunity for investors to position in Q1 for 2015
• Non-OPEC output potential is falling away sharply as oil-price undershoot continues
• The SNB’s surprise removal of the CHF ceiling further supports...
Uneven economic growth, uneven prospects for commodities – Concerns over the frailty of the global economic recovery have created a bearish tone across the commodity complex in H2-2014 that only a handful of commodities have withstood. In some cases...
China’s commodity trade data implies firmer market conditions than sentiment is currently pricing in
• Demand growth has resumed for freight-related diesel after months of decline
• Refined copper data continues to show a surprisingly positive de...
China’s oil and copper demand was strong in September
• Demand for other commodities was weak; the macroeconomic outlook is for a further slowdown in Q4
• We expect copper and oil demand to remain more robust than demand for most other commodities...
Commodity import data for China implies a divergent set of demand circumstances across sectors
• Implied oil demand has rebounded to 3.4% growth, from a y/y decline seen in the previous release
• Robust copper and zinc demand despite the economy; ...
• July commodity data shows areas of economic strength but also a setback in the economic recovery
• Weaker metal imports, offset by output and stock draws, result in strongest demand levels so far in 2014
• Crude oil imports are depressed by slug...
• A time to position for (uneven) growth – The global recovery remains very uneven, and in the post-2008 world, the growth trajectory remains flatter (and longer) than in a conventional economic cycle. We expect the next phase of the global cycle to...
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