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  • 07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE - Updated Sun April 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ...

  • 12-Mar – Fine-tuning our G10 FX forecasts - Updated Tue March 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth likely moderated due to seasonal effects • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged in March • Malaysia – External tailwinds likely supported IP growth in January • Market focus • We are adjusting sele...

  • 12-Feb – US: Yellen sings from Bernanke’s songbook - Updated Tue February 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely rose to a 4.5-year high of 5.9% • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in February • South Korea – The policy rate is likely to be kept on hold at 2.5% • Market focus • There...

  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • 08-Jan – Thailand’s prolonged political vacuum [CORRECTION] - Updated Wed January 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation likely remained benign in December • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged • Europe – ECB and BoE likely to keep policy on hold • Market focus • Several event risks could disrupt the election, le...

  • 11-Dec – Once bitten, twice shy - Updated Tue December 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – IIP to turn negative, CPI remains sticky • Indonesia – We expect BI to hike rates at the December meeting • South Korea – BoK is likely to keep its policy rate at 2.5% • Market focus • Cumulative upside data surpris...

  • 10-Dec – BI to hike rates; status quo for rest of Asia - Updated Mon December 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely edged up to 5.8% in November • India – Opposition gains in state elections • Malaysia – Industrial production growth likely picked up in October • Market focus • We expect Bank Indonesia...

  • 11-Nov – BI and BoK to keep rates on hold - Updated Sun November 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – High base effect likely suppressed export growth • India – CPI inflation to stay elevated; IIP to improve temporarily • UK – Expectations on the downside ahead of new Inflation Report • Market focus • We expe...

  • 05-Nov – UST market: Steady as she goes - Updated Mon November 4, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Real GDP y/y growth likely slowed in Q3 • Singapore – PMI likely edged up in October • Euro area – Muted services expansion according to flash indicator • Market focus • Last week’s Fed statement and strong manu...

  • 31-Oct – AXJ currencies to strengthen further - Updated Wed October 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI likely saw a marginal improvement • Indonesia – Headline inflation likely remained low m/m in October • US – A neutral FOMC awaits better data before pulling the trigger • Market focus • AXJ curren...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 07-Oct – Asian central banks to maintain status quo - Updated Sun October 6, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Pakistan – PKR is under pressure due to declining FX reserves • India – SIGMA provides a mildly bullish signal for duration in October • Germany – PMIs suggest a healthy pick-up in factory orders • Market focus • BI and Bo...

  • 30-Sep – A very tentative recovery - Updated Sun September 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – September inflation was likely lower m/m, higher y/y • South Korea – Benign inflation and a healthy trade surplus • Australia – RBA likely to keep the policy rate unchanged • Market focus • China and US manufact...

  • 30-Aug – EM reserve adequacy - Updated Thu August 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – August headline inflation likely slowed m/m, picked up y/y • South Korea – Headline inflation, exports likely continued to rise • US – Expected increase in Chicago PMI would bode well for ISM survey • Market foc...

  • 14-Aug – BI likely to hike rates on inflation risks - Updated Tue August 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Solid remittance growth expected for June • Singapore – Motor vehicles likely dragged down June retail sales • Mexico – The long-awaited step in the right direction • Market focus • We expect BI to raise the ...

  • 31-Jul – For your guidance - Updated Tue July 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Weakness in manufacturing PMI likely continued • South Korea – Both headline inflation and exports likely picked up • Indonesia – Month-on-month inflation likely peaked in July • Market focus • The ECB and BoE use...

  • 10-Jul – Adjusting our USD-AXJ FX forecasts - Updated Tue July 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect a BI rate hike in July • Malaysia – BNM to maintain the status quo • South Korea – BoK likely to keep rates on hold • Market focus • We are revising higher our USD-AXJ FX forecasts on Fed QE tapering, ...

  • Asia leverage uncovered - Updated Mon July 1, 2013

    The following is a joint research report from the Equity and Regional Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content. • Unprecedented approach to systemic credit r...

  • 14-Jun – Surprise BI rate hike - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Remittance inflows likely rebounded after a weak March • Singapore – Export performance expected to have remained lacklustre • India – Wide trade deficit and weaker INR represent risks to our rate-cut call • M...

  • 31-May – Behind the IMF rhetoric on CNY valuation - Updated Thu May 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Headline inflation likely remained very low • Thailand – Inflation is expected to have remained benign • Indonesia – Inflation was likely low in May • Market focus • Cumulative gain in the CNY’s real trade-we...



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07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to stay put at its April 7-8 meeting,...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.