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  • 27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to increase - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities...

  • 24-Mar – Revising our SGD rates forecasts - Updated Sun March 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely grew 5.0% y/y • Nigeria – S&P says CreditWatch Negative, MPC may change FX band • Germany – Geopolitical fears may dampen IFO survey in March • Market focus • We revise our SGD rates forecast sl...

  • 24-Feb – Brazil: The BCB’s juggling act - Updated Sun February 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely widened on stronger import growth • Hong Kong – Export data was likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Vietnam – February data expected to be distorted by Lunar New Year • Market focus • We...

  • 23-Jan – Trip notes from Japan - Updated Wed January 22, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Upside to IP expected to be muted • Vietnam – Jan inflation likely edged higher, but still controllable • US – Existing home sales were likely up slightly in December • Market focus • Japanese clients are positi...

  • 20-Dec – EM-21 reserve monitor update - Updated Thu December 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – USD-CNY fix rises following Fed taper • Singapore – Stable inflation and industrial production expected • Vietnam – 2013 GDP likely grew 5.3% y/y; inflation is well contained • Market focus • EM-21 reserves inc...

  • Vietnam – Bottoming out - Updated Mon November 11, 2013

    Growth appears to be bottoming out, but we do not expect a return to trend growth soon • Foreign direct investor interest remains strong despite lacklustre economy • Vietnam still needs to address three key structural issues to improve growth sust...

  • Vietnam – Slow recovery - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    Economic activity in Vietnam continues to recover gradually, although the pace is slow by historical standards. GDP grew 5.14% in the first nine months of 2013. We estimate that Q3 growth was 5.54% y/y, faster than the 4.9% pace in H1-2013, although...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 27-Sep – Euro-area policy, politics and economics - Updated Thu September 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Modest current account deficit expected for August • Vietnam – Revision of USD-VND FX Forecasts • South Korea – Industrial production likely rebounded in August • Market focus • Unpredictable politics in Austria...

  • 24-Sep – Merkel triumphs; now for the tough part - Updated Mon September 23, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Top 3 Asian rates trades post-FOMC – Thailand, India and Singapore • Taiwan – Export orders to pick up ahead of year-end sales season • Vietnam – Q3 GDP likely rose moderately • Market focus • A victorious Angela Merkel...

  • Measuring sustainable development - Updated Wed September 18, 2013

    Most countries now aim to achieve ‘sustainable development’, not just maximum GDP growth. But what does this mean? How can it be measured? And how does it relate to the concept of human well-being and to ‘happiness economics’? • We present a new St...

  • ASEAN – Traversing the Mekong - Updated Fri August 30, 2013

    Mekong region is attracting investor interest as a low-cost base, as reflected in our client survey • The business environment varies widely across the region and can be challenging • Infrastructure tends to be strong only in designated industria...

  • 23-Aug – Drawing the line in the EM debt sell-off - Updated Thu August 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Industrial production likely rebounded in July • Vietnam – August CPI expected to remain on an uptrend • US – New home sales likely edged down, but uptrend seems solid • Market focus • EM bonds have seen outflow...

  • 01-Jul – Macro 1: Financial-market sentiment 0 - Updated Sun June 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – We forecast gradual VND depreciation • Australia – RBA is likely to leave rate unchanged on AUD depreciation • US – Regional surveys signal a rise in the nationwide ISM index • Market focus • Recent financial-marke...

  • 24-Jun – CNY re-peg amid capital-market volatility - Updated Sun June 23, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Investment and consumption likely supported Q2 GDP • Philippines – Disappointing exports likely widened trade deficit further • Hong Kong – Fragile external backdrop to weigh on trade recovery • Market focus • Nor...

  • Vietnam – Addicted to gold [Update] - Updated Wed June 5, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 28 May 2013. • Large holdings of gold in Vietnam affect exchange rate, trade balance and economic stability • The SBV’s recent consolidation of gold imports is likely to have only a temporary impact • Stabilisin...

  • ASEAN – That domestic feeling - Updated Tue June 4, 2013

    • Growing affluence in the region is providing domestic support to growth and intra-regional trade • ASEAN is still poorer than the world, but is catching up strongly • Import trend suggests a near-term slowdown in domestic consumer demand • Impo...

  • 23-May – Bernanke bolsters bond bears - Updated Wed May 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Inflationary pressure to ease for now • Germany – Looking for some better news from the IFO report • US – Data watching returns to centre stage after Bernanke’s comments • Market focus • Bernanke’s testimony reve...

  • Vietnam – SBV maintains pro-growth bias - Updated Wed May 15, 2013

    SBV cuts policy rates by 100bps, lowering the refinancing rate to 7% • We expect one more 50bps cut in Q3 if the authorities remain comfortable with inflation • We adjust our inflation forecasts for 2013 and 2014; we still see inflation on an uptr...

  • 23-Apr – Gold searches for a new floor - Updated Mon April 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Muted inflation in Q1 • Germany – IFO will likely signal that weakness extended into Q2 • Vietnam – Softer inflation paves the way for a rate cut • Market focus • The gold price has bounced strongly after the r...



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Trade idea

27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to...

Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities, as an asset class, have outperformed other...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.