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  • 23-Apr – Solid Korean growth and the KRW puzzle - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ will likely hike the cash rate again, to 3.00% • Germany – IFO to show firm fundamentals dampened by shaky outlook • US – Markit PMI survey may show ongoing manufacturing expansion • Market focus ...

  • Buy AUD-NZD - Updated Thu April 3, 2014

    • AUD-NZD looks set for a sharp corrective rebound as shifting terms of trade catch the market long NZD • Most NZD good news is priced in; AUD shorts are vulnerable to the improving Australian trade balance • We recommend buying AUD-NZD via 3M f...

  • 19-Mar – Challenging the bear hug - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation begins to edge lower • New Zealand – Q4-2013 GDP likely reflected strong recovery momentum • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show an improving growth outlook • Market focus • Russia faces more sancti...

  • 29-Jan – Preparing for Japan’s sales-tax hike - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q4 • New Zealand – We expect RBNZ to leave rate unchanged at a low 2.50% • Argentina – We raise our USD-ARS forecasts • Market focus • December data is likely to show earl...

  • SC IMM: Positioning risks show AUD ‘Buy’ signal - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    Our SC IMM positioning heatmap suggests AUD may see a major short-term rally • Leveraged net shorts in the AUD vs. the USD, EUR, GBP and NZD reach sample extremes • Leveraged funds should buy 1M EUR-AUD, GBP-AUD put spreads...

  • 18-Dec – Risks to our FX calls - Updated Tue December 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – Q3-2013 GDP likely showed a rebound from the drought • Taiwan – Export orders to show improving demand into 2014 • United States – We expect a dovish Fed to keep QE at USD 85bn/month • Market focus • We remai...

  • Introducing SC IMM: A reassessment of the IMM data - Updated Tue December 10, 2013

    We introduce our SC IMM heatmap to leverage off the CFTC/IMM’s disaggregated FX position data • This unique tool provides strong signals of extreme positioning skew and potential FX trading indicators • Back-testing confirms that SC IMM and our me...

  • 29-Oct – A week in Brazil - Updated Mon October 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ likely to maintain its status quo • Euro area – Improvement in sentiment may seem unspectacular • US – Slower auto sales likely weighed on retail sales • Market focus • Brazilian investors were most inter...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • 18-Sep – India: RBI to stay cautious - Updated Tue September 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – August imports likely offset export gains • New Zealand – Q2 growth was likely muted at 0.2% q/q • South Africa – SARB forecasts in focus • Market focus • Marginal tweaking of liquidity-tightening measures is possi...

  • 10-Sep-12 – FOMC’s toughest choice in 2012 - Updated Sun September 9, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Export growth to benefit from encouraging demand • New Zealand – RBNZ is likely to keep rates low and steady • China – The divergence between USD-CNY spot and fix is no more • Market focus • We do not think US...

  • 25-Jul-12 – The long and short of inflation - Updated Tue July 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ to keep interest rates on hold • South Korea – GDP growth likely to be weaker in Q2 • Taiwan – Dividend outflows to impact the TWD • Market focus • Asian central banks to focus on short-term growth risks,...

  • 26-Apr-12 – BoJ easing to disappoint USD-JPY bulls - Updated Wed April 25, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Japan – March industrial production should remain weak on a m/m basis • Thailand – MPI is likely to show a y/y contraction • Europe – Italy sells bills; Eurostat releases confidence surveys Market focus • BoJ likely ...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.