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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • 18-Mar – Fed likely to remove ‘patient’ guidance - Updated Tue March 17, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – Q4-2014 GDP growth likely remained robust at 0.6% q/q • Euro area – TLTRO 3 to show whether demand for loans is rising • Switzerland – SNB likely to keep the LIBOR target range unchanged • Market focus • We th...

  • 28-Jan – ‘Patient’ Fed watches the data - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ expected to keep cash rate unchanged at 3.50% • Philippines – Q4 GDP growth rebound expected after disappointing Q3 • South Africa – MPC to clarify tightening intent • Market focus • We expect little chan...

  • 20-Jan – BoJ faces a tough situation - Updated Mon January 19, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • We revise our USD-CHF forecasts after the SNB’s surprise move • New Zealand – Inflation likely remained flat q/q • UK – We expect no change in votes at the January MPC meeting • Market focus • The BoJ is likely to expand ...

  • 17-Dec – More pain before gain for the INR - Updated Tue December 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – We expect the CBC to keep benchmark policy rate unchanged • New Zealand – Q3 GDP growth likely remained strong at 0.6% q/q • Germany – IFO business climate likely improved in December • Market focus • Crowded posit...

  • 02-Dec – The oil slick hits commodity currencies - Updated Mon December 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • NEA FX revisions following OPEC’s November meeting • Nigeria – Revisiting our USD-NGN forecasts • USD-COP FX forecasts revised • Market focus • Following the OPEC meeting, we revise down our forecasts for the AUD, NZD and C...

  • 29-Oct – SAR move overdone, retracement likely - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Industrial production expected to pick up • RBNZ likely to extend its pause, keeping rates at 3.50% • Brazil – COPOM likely to sit tight for now • Market focus • The spike in USD-SAR activity has been on outf...

  • 30-Sep – China’s PMI to reflect continued headwinds - Updated Mon September 29, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • RBNZ – FX intervention confirmed • Indonesia – We expect moderate inflation data for September • South Korea – Inflation likely still benign; exports likely recovered • Market focus • Official manufacturing PMI likely inc...

  • Buy AUD-NZD via 3M forward outright - Updated Thu September 11, 2014

    AUD-NZD looks set to extend its gains from multi-year lows as NZ expectations moderate Technicals suggest an eventual move in the cross to 1.2259, while valuation is also supportive We recommend buying AUD-NZD via 3M forward outright...

  • 05-Aug – BoT to hold; bond flows to stay positive - Updated Mon August 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – The unemployment rate likely dropped to a five-year low • Australia – Jobless rate likely rose to 6.1%, participation to 64.8% • United States – ISMs may not align • Market focus • We expect the BoT to keep i...



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18-Mar – Fed likely to remove ‘patient’...

Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – Q4-2014 GDP growth likely remained robust at 0.6% q/q • Euro area – TLTRO 3 to show whether demand for loans is rising • Switzerland – SNB likely to keep the LIBOR target range unchanged • Market focus • We think the FOMC will remove the ‘patient’...

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