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  • 21-Apr – CBRT – Monetary policy consternation - Updated Mon April 20, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q1 inflation was likely lower at 1.3% y/y • Singapore – Inflation likely decreased further in March • UK – BoE minutes likely to show unanimous rate decision in April • Market focus • We think the CBRT will leav...

  • 15-Apr – BoC likely to wait as jury is still out - Updated Tue April 14, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Sewol ferry disaster, one year on • Australia – March unemployment rate was likely unchanged at 6.3% • Philippines – Remittance growth likely rebounded; challenges ahead • Market focus • The Bank of Canada may...

  • 02-Apr – India – A pause before easing - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to maintain cash rate at 2.25% in a close call • Malaysia – We expect lacklustre export growth for February • Philippines – Inflation likely eased in March • Market focus • RBI likely to keep repo rat...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • 11-Mar – India: A data-heavy week - Updated Tue March 10, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely rose again to a 13-year high • South Korea – We expect the BoK to remain on hold • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • Market focus • February CPI likel...

  • 04-Mar – BNM policy stance supports receiving rates - Updated Tue March 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Retail and external trade likely contracted in October • UK – Bank of England will likely keep interest rates unchanged • Euro area – ECB will likely revise growth up and inflation down • Market focus • BNM is l...

  • 02-Mar – Question for the RBA is not if, but when - Updated Sun March 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea − CPI inflation likely picked up on holiday shopping • Singapore − Subdued recovery in PMI expected • Taiwan − Export orders likely gained on strong tech demand • Market focus • RBA likely to keep rates unchange...

  • 10-Feb – BSP is in no rush to change policy stance - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect Q4 GDP to have slowed versus previous quarters • Singapore – Take profit on pay 2Y IRS vs 2Y SGS • Australia – We expect muted job creation for January • Market focus • We expect the BSP to keep its pol...

  • 05-Feb – Oil prices make US payroll call slippery - Updated Wed February 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy likely to be bearish • Malaysia – Weaker MYR likely supported the trade balance • China – January trade data to benefit from holiday distortion • Market focus • We predict payr...

  • 04-Feb – More to come from the Tasman twins - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – A new base year for GDP • Philippines – Inflation likely eased further in January • UK – Bank of England will likely leave the Bank Rate unchanged • Market focus • RBA turns dovish from neutral, pointing to like...

  • 02-Feb – India: RBI likely to cut rates - Updated Sun February 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia − RBA likely to revert to a dovish stance, without cutting rates • South Korea − CPI inflation likely picked up moderately in January • US – ISM likely moderated on global headwinds, oil price rout • Market focus ...

  • 27-Jan – BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep policy rates unchanged • Australia – Q4-2014 inflation was likely lower at 1.8% y/y • US – Fed in ‘hibernation’; statement should repeat ‘patience’ • Market focus • We reiterate our call tha...

  • 14-Jan – Korea: All eyes on BoK policy direction - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect the BI rate to be unchanged in January • Japan – Machinery orders likely rebounded; PPI likely slowed further • Australia – Job creation was likely muted in December • Market focus • We expect the BoK ...

  • 08-Jan – ASEAN reforms as oil prices fall - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – External and retail trade likely contracted in November • Philippines – We expect good, but not great, export growth • Germany – Industrial production likely increased at a steady rate • Market focus • Indonesia...

  • 09-Dec – ECB TLTRO tantrum could trigger QE - Updated Mon December 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Job creation was likely weak in November • China – Continued drop in producer prices raises concerns • Korea – Hold onto the long 10Y KTB trade; we revise up the stop-loss • Market focus • The 11 December TLTRO ...

  • 02-Dec – The oil slick hits commodity currencies - Updated Mon December 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • NEA FX revisions following OPEC’s November meeting • Nigeria – Revisiting our USD-NGN forecasts • USD-COP FX forecasts revised • Market focus • Following the OPEC meeting, we revise down our forecasts for the AUD, NZD and C...

  • 01-Dec – RBI likely to acknowledge easing inflation - Updated Sun November 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to reiterate a ‘period of stability in interest rates’ • South Korea – CPI inflation likely continued to fall in November • Malaysia – We revise up USD-MYR forecasts after the OPEC meeting • Market fo...

  • 17-Nov – Quietly resilient Taiwan - Updated Sun November 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA minutes likely to reiterate a ‘period of stability in rates’ • UK – We expect subdued inflationary pressures for some time • United States – IP data: Don’t take the ISM surveys at face value • Market focus •...

  • 05-Nov – Aussie labour-market uncertainty persists - Updated Tue November 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ minutes in focus after its surprise easing • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep rates unchanged • Taiwan – Tech exports likely rose on year-end holiday sales demand • Market focus • The Australian Bureau of Stat...

  • 03-Nov – The currency wars are spreading - Updated Sun November 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • RBA likely to reiterate a ‘period of stability in interest rates’ • Benign CPI inflation expected, even with recovery • US – ISM survey likely to moderate, but remain healthy • Market focus • We revise our USD-JPY forecasts...



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21-Apr – CBRT – Monetary policy consternation

Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q1 inflation was likely lower at 1.3% y/y • Singapore – Inflation likely decreased further in March • UK – BoE minutes likely to show unanimous rate decision in April • Market focus • We think the CBRT will leave interest rates unchanged • Monetary...

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