Nigeria: Oil-price weakness and FX outlook constrain offshore bid; bonds offer value onshore
• Ghana: GHS bonds look nominally attractive, despite FX, convertibility and investment-horizon risks
• Kenya: KES infrastructure bonds will likely contin...
• Presidential by-election on 20 January will be a key near-term focus
• Discussions on mining tax royalties and VAT refunds are likely to be deferred until after the election
• ZMW may come under pressure as yields decline
GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator
• Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched
• Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...
• Medium-term expansion of energy output will support increased copper production
• Greater spending restraint and GDP rebasing improve key credit metrics
• Pace of monetary easing will be key determinant of the ZMW outlook
• Further ECB easing provides a boost to African frontier markets; Kenya an early beneficiary
• We look for spikes in USD-NGN to enter short-term FGN bill positions
• IMF funding may be a potential positive for Ghana, as it was for Zambia...
• This supersedes the version dated 21 March 2014. Page 1, third paragraph, corrects the policy rate.
• Bank of Zambia tightens policy further, raising rate on overnight lending facility with immediate effect
• Earlier regulation suspending FX b...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
• Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China
• African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...
• Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in
• We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations
• We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
• This supersedes the version dated 20 June 2013. Changes Ghana FX weighting to Neutral.
• Three sources of vulnerability will add to short-term market volatility: the concentration of foreign holdings, correlation to UST and local-market liquidit...
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