• Uganda will benefit from a lower import bill, but some oil exploration may be deferred
• Government spending likely to increase ahead of 2016 elections
• BoU seen tightening interest policy in 2015 in response to pressure on the UGX
GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator
• Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched
• Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...
• Public infrastructure spending and buoyant credit trends to support growth
• Fiscal consolidation appears unlikely – we expect upside risks to Uganda’s borrowing requirement
• Elections are due in 2016; prime ministerial reshuffle suggests polit...
• Further ECB easing provides a boost to African frontier markets; Kenya an early beneficiary
• We look for spikes in USD-NGN to enter short-term FGN bill positions
• IMF funding may be a potential positive for Ghana, as it was for Zambia...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
Most countries now aim to achieve ‘sustainable development’, not just maximum GDP growth. But what does this mean? How can it be measured? And how does it relate to the concept of human well-being and to ‘happiness economics’?
• We present a new St...
• Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in
• We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations
• We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...
• Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China
• African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
Top 3 data/events
• Australia – Q1 GDP growth was likely below trend at 0.5% q/q
• Philippines – BSP expected to keep policy rate on hold, cut SDA rate
• Uganda – We close our trade amid deteriorating sentiment onshore
• Market focus
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