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  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Measuring sustainable development - Updated Wed September 18, 2013

    Most countries now aim to achieve ‘sustainable development’, not just maximum GDP growth. But what does this mean? How can it be measured? And how does it relate to the concept of human well-being and to ‘happiness economics’? • We present a new St...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Africa overview – Brighter prospects ahead - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China • African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...

  • Africa Focus - A wealth of diversity - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    • Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels. • South Africa is more susceptible to glob...

  • 04-Jun – ECB on hold as activity claws its way back - Updated Mon June 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q1 GDP growth was likely below trend at 0.5% q/q • Philippines – BSP expected to keep policy rate on hold, cut SDA rate • Uganda – We close our trade amid deteriorating sentiment onshore • Market focus • Euro-a...

  • Africa Regional overview – Fiscal policy in focus - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Fiscal policy is likely to be constrained in 2013 in a number of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns • In some countries, debt levels have increased to worrying levels • Reducing energy subsidies can alleviate the pressure on public finances ...

  • Uganda – A slow recovery - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Gradual recovery in real GDP looks likely in 2013 • Inflation concerns mean the policy rate should remain on hold until 2014 • Oil will provide a long-term boost to growth, but production is still several years away ...

  • Africa Focus - Sound growth, fiscal challenges - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    • Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend. ...

  • Uganda – Testing times - Updated Fri December 14, 2012

    Oil production is likely to be delayed until 2017, at least • Reduction in donor assistance to weigh on outlook • UGX is likely to be vulnerable to a reversal of portfolio inflows...

  • 01-Nov-12 – The search for carry trades in EM - Updated Wed October 31, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Unemployment remains low • Uganda – Monetary policy easing to continue, with a 100bps rate cut expected • US – ISM set to improve, but progress remains slow • Market focus • QE3 continues to encourage foreign in...

  • Uganda – Oil in 2016, maybe 2017 - Updated Mon October 15, 2012

    • Large-scale oil production now looks likely to be deferred until 2017, at least • Plans for a pipeline versus a refinery must still be agreed, with little consensus on capacity • BoU easing to reinvigorate growth, but the growth pace is expected...

  • Diversity - Updated Thu October 11, 2012

    • Despite IMF downgrades to global growth forecasts, real GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa should average around 5% in 2012. Africa continues to present a diverse picture: initially investor concerns centred on the impact of the slowdown in Europe; they no...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.