• Constitutional referendum, elections make politics a key focus in 2015
• Donors postpone budget support; budget deficit likely to widen
• USD-TZS upside pressure seen, despite capital-account liberalisation
GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator
• Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched
• Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...
• Tanzania’s growth outlook remains favourable, buoyed by expectations of greater resource wealth
• Tanzania announces capital account liberalisation measures, lifting restrictions on foreign ownership of listed equities and allowing foreign partic...
• Further ECB easing provides a boost to African frontier markets; Kenya an early beneficiary
• We look for spikes in USD-NGN to enter short-term FGN bill positions
• IMF funding may be a potential positive for Ghana, as it was for Zambia...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
• Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China
• African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
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