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  • Nigeria – Time to adjust the FX band - Updated Mon March 24, 2014

    Some stability has returned to the FX market recently • However, this is largely because of CBN intervention • FX reserves are down almost 12% since the January MPC meeting • We believe the CBN will adjust the NGN FX band at the March MPC meeting...

  • 24-Mar – Revising our SGD rates forecasts - Updated Sun March 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely grew 5.0% y/y • Nigeria – S&P says CreditWatch Negative, MPC may change FX band • Germany – Geopolitical fears may dampen IFO survey in March • Market focus • We revise our SGD rates forecast sl...

  • 27-Nov – Fine-tuning our G10 FX and Africa forecasts - Updated Tue November 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q3 • Africa – Adjusting some of our FX and rates forecasts • Brazil – COPOM to deliver another 50bps hike; minutes are in focus • Market focus • We are adjusting selected ...

  • 19-Nov – Korea’s current account cross-over - Updated Mon November 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely accelerated in October • Taiwan – October export orders to show a pick-up in overseas demand • Nigeria – MPR on hold, other tightening measures are difficult to rule out • Market focus • Japan’s...

  • Nigeria – Economic implications of PDP’s split - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Political developments in Nigeria increase near-term uncertainty • With politics taking centre-stage earlier than expected, there are upside risks to outlined spending plans • Any threat to the PDP’s majority in the National Assembly could poten...

  • Africa Focus – Long-term fundamentals - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 23-Sep – India – The RBI’s hawkish twist - Updated Sun September 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Germany – Business optimum persists in the run-up to the election • Nigeria – FX policy in focus at MPC meeting • US – Consumer confidence likely eroded; home prices on the rise • Market focus • Hawkish RBI is likely to inc...

  • Nigeria – More cost-effective liquidity tightening - Updated Tue July 30, 2013

    • CBN has hiked the cash reserve ratio on public-sector deposits to 50%, effective 7 August • We see this as a more cost-effective way of sterilising liquidity • After a knee-jerk reaction, we expect the impact to be more muted and bonds to outpe...

  • 22-Jul – China liberalises domestic lending rate - Updated Sun July 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – IP likely rose due to a pick-up in tech demand • Singapore – CPI inflation likely remained low • Nigeria – CBN expected to keep interest rates on hold at 12% • Market focus • PBoC eliminates lending-rate floor, ef...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Africa overview – Brighter prospects ahead - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China • African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...

  • Nigeria – The political cycle and policy - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Rising FAAC allocations, improved budget implementation and legislation that may allow for elections to be held before 2015 hint at the start of a political cycle in Nigeria • Oil revenue has disappointed. However, Nigeria’s willingness to dip i...

  • Africa Focus - A wealth of diversity - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    • Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels. • South Africa is more susceptible to glob...

  • Africa – Unequal vulnerability to US QE tapering [Correction] - Updated Fri June 21, 2013

    • This supersedes the version dated 20 June 2013. Changes Ghana FX weighting to Neutral. • Three sources of vulnerability will add to short-term market volatility: the concentration of foreign holdings, correlation to UST and local-market liquidit...

  • Nigeria – Policy choices - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Despite a modest planned increase in 2013 spending, budget oil-revenue assumptions are still optimistic • Augmentation of revenue from Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account is still possible • Calls for greater monetary easing, given near-term growth c...

  • Africa Regional overview – Fiscal policy in focus - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Fiscal policy is likely to be constrained in 2013 in a number of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns • In some countries, debt levels have increased to worrying levels • Reducing energy subsidies can alleviate the pressure on public finances ...

  • Africa Focus - Sound growth, fiscal challenges - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    • Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend. ...

  • 12-Mar – EM reserve monitor update - Updated Mon March 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Switzerland – Monetary policy likely to be on hold on CHF strength • Australia – Unemployment rate likely held steady in February at 5.4% • Nigeria – Still a positive outlook • Market focus • EM-21 central bank reserve ac...

  • 25-Jan-13 – The rotation in Asian FX - Updated Thu January 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index to suggest a rebound in the economy • NGN 1Y T-bill – Our new target is 11% (entry: 13.22%, stop-loss: 13%) • United States – New home sales likely ended 2012 on an uptrend • Market focus • Flows, p...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.