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  • Nigeria stops RDAS FX sales - Updated Wed February 18, 2015

    Event • According to a statement published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the RDAS/ WDAS window under which foreign exchange was previously available at a subsidised rate will effectively be discontinued. Going forward, all demand for FX wi...

  • SSA rates 2015 − Battling a bearish FX bias - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    Nigeria: Oil-price weakness and FX outlook constrain offshore bid; bonds offer value onshore • Ghana: GHS bonds look nominally attractive, despite FX, convertibility and investment-horizon risks • Kenya: KES infrastructure bonds will likely contin...

  • 19-Jan – A cold December in China - Updated Sun January 18, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Growth concerns put downward pressure on rates • Nigeria – Monetary policy rate expected to stay on hold • Turkey – CBRT will most likely keep rates unchanged • Market focus • Growth momentum remains weak in Chin...

  • 19-Dec – NGN – FX trading comes to a halt - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export orders to show mixed demand; job data set to improve • Euro area – Consumer confidence will likely pick up • Colombia – BanRep to hold rates unchanged at 4.5% • Market focus • CBN cuts foreign-exchange tradi...

  • 15-Dec – Fed: Considerably patient - Updated Sun December 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - NODX expansion expected due to favourable base effect • Euro area – December PMI will likely improve marginally • Nigeria – November CPI likely to reflect FX weakness • Market focus • We think the Fed will repla...

  • Nigeria – Elections and oil fears - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Weak oil earnings contribute to Nigeria’s structural challenges; more reform is anticipated • Fiscal policy in 2015 plans to adopt a scenario-based approach to accommodate the weaker oil price • Elections still represent a key risk; the NGN is l...

  • NGN – Adjusting our FX strategy to the weak oil price - Updated Mon December 8, 2014

    We update our NGN views, taking into account recent fundamental developments, flows and technicals • We expect further USD-NGN upside in the short term, but some currency stabilisation afterwards • The weaker oil price will affect external and fis...

  • Africa – 2015: The winners and the losers - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator • Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched • Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...

  • 02-Dec – The oil slick hits commodity currencies - Updated Mon December 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • NEA FX revisions following OPEC’s November meeting • Nigeria – Revisiting our USD-NGN forecasts • USD-COP FX forecasts revised • Market focus • Following the OPEC meeting, we revise down our forecasts for the AUD, NZD and C...

  • Nigeria – CBN hikes rates, devalues RDAS FX rate - Updated Tue November 25, 2014

    CBN raises the MPR to 13% and the CRR on private-sector deposits to 20% • RDAS mid-point moved to 168 from 155 • Short USD-NGN carry trade looks moderately more attractive...



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