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  • SSA rates 2015 − Battling a bearish FX bias - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    Nigeria: Oil-price weakness and FX outlook constrain offshore bid; bonds offer value onshore • Ghana: GHS bonds look nominally attractive, despite FX, convertibility and investment-horizon risks • Kenya: KES infrastructure bonds will likely contin...

  • 19-Jan – A cold December in China - Updated Sun January 18, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Growth concerns put downward pressure on rates • Nigeria – Monetary policy rate expected to stay on hold • Turkey – CBRT will most likely keep rates unchanged • Market focus • Growth momentum remains weak in Chin...

  • 19-Dec – NGN – FX trading comes to a halt - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export orders to show mixed demand; job data set to improve • Euro area – Consumer confidence will likely pick up • Colombia – BanRep to hold rates unchanged at 4.5% • Market focus • CBN cuts foreign-exchange tradi...

  • SC FIRST – EM losing the game of patience - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Fed will be patient but EM investors are not; outflows are channelling through more liquid bond markets • While overall flows reflect the Fed story, relative flows show the lower oil story still captures mindshare • Stressed markets care about e...

  • 15-Dec – Fed: Considerably patient - Updated Sun December 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - NODX expansion expected due to favourable base effect • Euro area – December PMI will likely improve marginally • Nigeria – November CPI likely to reflect FX weakness • Market focus • We think the Fed will repla...

  • Africa – 2015: The winners and the losers - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator • Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched • Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...

  • 02-Dec – The oil slick hits commodity currencies - Updated Mon December 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • NEA FX revisions following OPEC’s November meeting • Nigeria – Revisiting our USD-NGN forecasts • USD-COP FX forecasts revised • Market focus • Following the OPEC meeting, we revise down our forecasts for the AUD, NZD and C...

  • 24-Nov – CBN response is key to NGN stability - Updated Sun November 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Final Q3 GDP may be revised slightly higher • Philippines – Trade balance to remain neutral on subdued imports • Hong Kong – October exports to reflect lingering external headwinds • Market focus • CBN MPC meeti...

  • Nigeria – Policy changes - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    Central Bank of Nigeria announces changes to its Standing Deposit Facility • SDF deposits by institutions in excess of NGN 7.5bn will no longer be remunerated • More categories of FX demand are excluded from the official RDAS window • Short-dated...

  • 19-Sep – China: PBoC faces an easing dilemma - Updated Thu September 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Nigeria – Central bank expected to keep interest rates on hold • Taiwan – Rising export orders likely boosted employment, confidence • EM FX – New ZAR, TRY forecasts, going Underweight short-term ZAR • Market focus • The P...

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