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  • SSA rates 2015 − Battling a bearish FX bias - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    Nigeria: Oil-price weakness and FX outlook constrain offshore bid; bonds offer value onshore • Ghana: GHS bonds look nominally attractive, despite FX, convertibility and investment-horizon risks • Kenya: KES infrastructure bonds will likely contin...

  • 19-Jan – A cold December in China - Updated Sun January 18, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Growth concerns put downward pressure on rates • Nigeria – Monetary policy rate expected to stay on hold • Turkey – CBRT will most likely keep rates unchanged • Market focus • Growth momentum remains weak in Chin...

  • 19-Dec – NGN – FX trading comes to a halt - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export orders to show mixed demand; job data set to improve • Euro area – Consumer confidence will likely pick up • Colombia – BanRep to hold rates unchanged at 4.5% • Market focus • CBN cuts foreign-exchange tradi...

  • SC FIRST – EM losing the game of patience - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Fed will be patient but EM investors are not; outflows are channelling through more liquid bond markets • While overall flows reflect the Fed story, relative flows show the lower oil story still captures mindshare • Stressed markets care about e...

  • 15-Dec – Fed: Considerably patient - Updated Sun December 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - NODX expansion expected due to favourable base effect • Euro area – December PMI will likely improve marginally • Nigeria – November CPI likely to reflect FX weakness • Market focus • We think the Fed will repla...

  • Africa – 2015: The winners and the losers - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator • Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched • Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...

  • 02-Dec – The oil slick hits commodity currencies - Updated Mon December 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • NEA FX revisions following OPEC’s November meeting • Nigeria – Revisiting our USD-NGN forecasts • USD-COP FX forecasts revised • Market focus • Following the OPEC meeting, we revise down our forecasts for the AUD, NZD and C...

  • 24-Nov – CBN response is key to NGN stability - Updated Sun November 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Final Q3 GDP may be revised slightly higher • Philippines – Trade balance to remain neutral on subdued imports • Hong Kong – October exports to reflect lingering external headwinds • Market focus • CBN MPC meeti...

  • Nigeria – Policy changes - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    Central Bank of Nigeria announces changes to its Standing Deposit Facility • SDF deposits by institutions in excess of NGN 7.5bn will no longer be remunerated • More categories of FX demand are excluded from the official RDAS window • Short-dated...

  • 19-Sep – China: PBoC faces an easing dilemma - Updated Thu September 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Nigeria – Central bank expected to keep interest rates on hold • Taiwan – Rising export orders likely boosted employment, confidence • EM FX – New ZAR, TRY forecasts, going Underweight short-term ZAR • Market focus • The P...

  • 12-Sep – Markets mull over the San Francisco ‘signal’ - Updated Thu September 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Recovery likely faltered in August • Philippines – Steady remittance growth likely continued in July • Nigeria – Still long USD-NGN carry trade • Market focus • Recent San Francisco Fed research has put USTs on guar...

  • Nigeria – Risk/reward shifting to the short end - Updated Thu August 7, 2014

    • The short USD-NGN carry trade still delivers decent returns • USD-NGN remains the CBN’s nominal monetary policy anchor • But potential FX stress will probably generate even more attractive re-entry levels into the carry trade • Reduce durat...

  • 21-Jul – AXJ impact if Ukraine crisis escalates - Updated Sun July 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Inflation likely edged up, but mildly, to 3.0% y/y in Q2 • Nigeria – CBN expected to keep interest rates on hold • United States – July CPI should remain firm, but it is still ‘noisy’ • Market focus • If Ukrain...

  • 19-May − India: A strong electoral mandate - Updated Sun May 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Steady tech demand likely supported April export orders • Nigeria – We expect the CBN to hold policy steady • UK – Inflation seems set to stay below target, for now • Market focus • NDA set to form the next gover...

  • SC FIRST– Staying long, still favouring carry - Updated Thu May 8, 2014

    Direction and spread signals stay positive for the third consecutive month • These signals support our view that EM yields will fall and high-yielders will outperform • Relative-value signals support our positive Thai 5Y bonds and Overweight COP F...

  • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    We stay Neutral on Indonesian rates risk; we examine one of the positive external influences • New data shows a strong link between Russian, Turkish outflows and Indonesian inflows in Q1-2014 • The benefits for Indonesia, which we expect to conti...

  • 24-Mar – Revising our SGD rates forecasts - Updated Sun March 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely grew 5.0% y/y • Nigeria – S&P says CreditWatch Negative, MPC may change FX band • Germany – Geopolitical fears may dampen IFO survey in March • Market focus • We revise our SGD rates forecast sl...

  • 27-Nov – Fine-tuning our G10 FX and Africa forecasts - Updated Tue November 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q3 • Africa – Adjusting some of our FX and rates forecasts • Brazil – COPOM to deliver another 50bps hike; minutes are in focus • Market focus • We are adjusting selected ...

  • 19-Nov – Korea’s current account cross-over - Updated Mon November 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely accelerated in October • Taiwan – October export orders to show a pick-up in overseas demand • Nigeria – MPR on hold, other tightening measures are difficult to rule out • Market focus • Japan’s...

  • Nigeria – Staying positive into 2014 - Updated Fri October 18, 2013

    Bond yields compensate for important risks from credit, inflation, currency and positioning • Near-term challenges on the ground – politics, oil output, electricity production – are significant • With a supportive external environment, we stay pos...



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