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  • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    We stay Neutral on Indonesian rates risk; we examine one of the positive external influences • New data shows a strong link between Russian, Turkish outflows and Indonesian inflows in Q1-2014 • The benefits for Indonesia, which we expect to conti...

  • Nigeria – Time to adjust the FX band - Updated Mon March 24, 2014

    Some stability has returned to the FX market recently • However, this is largely because of CBN intervention • FX reserves are down almost 12% since the January MPC meeting • We believe the CBN will adjust the NGN FX band at the March MPC meeting...

  • 24-Mar – Revising our SGD rates forecasts - Updated Sun March 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely grew 5.0% y/y • Nigeria – S&P says CreditWatch Negative, MPC may change FX band • Germany – Geopolitical fears may dampen IFO survey in March • Market focus • We revise our SGD rates forecast sl...

  • The Nigerian economy −  Banking on Nigerian banks - Updated Fri December 13, 2013

    Nigeria has come a long way since its 2008-09 banking-sector crisis • CBN has tightened financial-sector regulation, encouraged real-sector lending • While estimates of the resolution cost of the crisis have increased, these still compare favourab...

  • 27-Nov – Fine-tuning our G10 FX and Africa forecasts - Updated Tue November 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q3 • Africa – Adjusting some of our FX and rates forecasts • Brazil – COPOM to deliver another 50bps hike; minutes are in focus • Market focus • We are adjusting selected ...

  • 19-Nov – Korea’s current account cross-over - Updated Mon November 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely accelerated in October • Taiwan – October export orders to show a pick-up in overseas demand • Nigeria – MPR on hold, other tightening measures are difficult to rule out • Market focus • Japan’s...

  • Nigeria – Staying positive into 2014 - Updated Fri October 18, 2013

    Bond yields compensate for important risks from credit, inflation, currency and positioning • Near-term challenges on the ground – politics, oil output, electricity production – are significant • With a supportive external environment, we stay pos...

  • Nigeria – Economic implications of PDP’s split - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Political developments in Nigeria increase near-term uncertainty • With politics taking centre-stage earlier than expected, there are upside risks to outlined spending plans • Any threat to the PDP’s majority in the National Assembly could poten...

  • Africa Focus – Long-term fundamentals - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Nigeria – New AML measures - Updated Fri September 27, 2013

    • Central Bank of Nigeria unveils new FX measures aimed at curbing suspected money laundering • NGN is likely to receive a boost from the measures; USD-NGN is back within official band • Longer-term, improvement in oil output will be required for ...

  • 23-Sep – India – The RBI’s hawkish twist - Updated Sun September 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Germany – Business optimum persists in the run-up to the election • Nigeria – FX policy in focus at MPC meeting • US – Consumer confidence likely eroded; home prices on the rise • Market focus • Hawkish RBI is likely to inc...

  • Measuring sustainable development - Updated Wed September 18, 2013

    Most countries now aim to achieve ‘sustainable development’, not just maximum GDP growth. But what does this mean? How can it be measured? And how does it relate to the concept of human well-being and to ‘happiness economics’? • We present a new St...

  • Nigeria – More cost-effective liquidity tightening - Updated Tue July 30, 2013

    • CBN has hiked the cash reserve ratio on public-sector deposits to 50%, effective 7 August • We see this as a more cost-effective way of sterilising liquidity • After a knee-jerk reaction, we expect the impact to be more muted and bonds to outpe...

  • Nigeria – CRR on public-sector deposits hiked to 50% [Correction] - Updated Tue July 23, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 23 July 2013. Updates the current share of public-sector deposits in the banking system to an estimated 10%. Event - In an unexpected move, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has hiked the cash reserve ratio (CRR...

  • Nigeria – MPC expected to keep MPR unchanged - Updated Tue July 23, 2013

    • MPC likely to stay cautious amid evidence of higher spending as Nigeria’s political cycle gets underway • Despite the recent improvement in inflation, we see little risk of easing • Expectations of a resetting of the FX mid-rate, or an explicit...

  • 22-Jul – China liberalises domestic lending rate - Updated Sun July 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – IP likely rose due to a pick-up in tech demand • Singapore – CPI inflation likely remained low • Nigeria – CBN expected to keep interest rates on hold at 12% • Market focus • PBoC eliminates lending-rate floor, ef...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Africa overview – Brighter prospects ahead - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China • African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.