• The compression in the NDF curve looks overextended and is likely to reverse
• We expect NDF outrights to shift up on FX reserves and currency devaluation factors
• We recommend buying 6M USD-NGN NDFs; target: 226.5, stop-loss: 210.0, entry: 217...
The headline Standard Chartered-Premise Consumer Price Tracker for Nigeria rises 0.6% m/m in March
• Price rises in several categories are offset by weak demand for discretionary meat and fish products
• Impact of election spending and FX weakness...
Nigeria’s March BSI increases to 61.0 from a series-low of 57.9 in February
• Output and orders rise to their highest levels since December 2014
• FX availability may yet emerge as a constraint on business sentiment...
The Standard-Chartered Premise Consumer Price Tracker shows a 0.4% m/m increase in February
Price pressures are more pronounced following an end to FX subsidies via the RDAS
We expect pressure on the FX rate to be sustained ahead of planned electi...
February BSI falls to a series low of 57.9 from 58.8 in January
• Near-term political uncertainty and softer oil prices continue to weigh on the indicator
• Falls in production and supplier delivery times indicate a slowdown in activity...
• According to a statement published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the RDAS/ WDAS window under which foreign exchange was previously available at a subsidised rate will effectively be discontinued. Going forward, all demand for FX wi...
The Standard Chartered-Premise Consumer Price Tracker reveals a 0.5% m/m decline in January prices
• Lower oil prices may be offsetting upward influences on prices of staples, including NGN weakness
• Our tracker shows minimal inflationary pressur...
Business sentiment fell to 58.8 in January, after reaching a series-high in December
• All five components that make up the headline BSI fell in January, reflecting challenging conditions
• However, 21 out of the total 31 indicators remain above t...
Nigeria: Oil-price weakness and FX outlook constrain offshore bid; bonds offer value onshore
• Ghana: GHS bonds look nominally attractive, despite FX, convertibility and investment-horizon risks
• Kenya: KES infrastructure bonds will likely contin...
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