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  • 10-Jan – India’s inflation to slow; buy 5Y GoISecs - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Kenya – Policy rate expected to stay on hold until Q3 • Taiwan – TWD NEER weakness expected to aid export outlook • United States – A moderate increase in December payrolls is likely • Market focus • December CPI is likely...

  • Kenya – Above-trend growth still in sight - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Despite a likely setback to tourism, we expect Kenya’s economy to be largely resilient • Even given weaker-than-expected headline GDP in Q2, many other sectors outperformed • Fiscal revenue in Q1-FY14 was above the budget target • Higher headli...

  • Africa Focus – Long-term fundamentals - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Africa overview – Brighter prospects ahead - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China • African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...

  • Africa Focus - A wealth of diversity - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    • Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels. • South Africa is more susceptible to glob...

  • Africa – Unequal vulnerability to US QE tapering [Correction] - Updated Fri June 21, 2013

    • This supersedes the version dated 20 June 2013. Changes Ghana FX weighting to Neutral. • Three sources of vulnerability will add to short-term market volatility: the concentration of foreign holdings, correlation to UST and local-market liquidit...

  • Africa Regional overview – Fiscal policy in focus - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Fiscal policy is likely to be constrained in 2013 in a number of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns • In some countries, debt levels have increased to worrying levels • Reducing energy subsidies can alleviate the pressure on public finances ...

  • Kenya – Economy on a recovery path - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Greater certainty post-election is required for markets to rally • Economic recovery is evident from the high-frequency data • Managing fiscal devolution post-election will be a key challenge ...

  • Africa Focus - Sound growth, fiscal challenges - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    • Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend. ...

  • 06-Nov-12 – US election scenarios and volatility - Updated Mon November 5, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – Government plans additional market borrowing in H2-FY13 • Kenya – The last of the outsized rate cuts • Euro area – Greece in the spotlight again as parliament votes on austerity • Market focus • USD is likely to see...

  • Diversity - Updated Thu October 11, 2012

    • Despite IMF downgrades to global growth forecasts, real GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa should average around 5% in 2012. Africa continues to present a diverse picture: initially investor concerns centred on the impact of the slowdown in Europe; they no...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.