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  • 25-Feb – CNY’s sheepish start to the Year of the Goat - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – January exports probably stayed soft • Kenya – CBK expected to keep rates on hold, despite deflation • Japan – Key January data to show recovery; inflation likely slowed • Market focus • China’s onshore FX marke...

  • SSA rates 2015 − Battling a bearish FX bias - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    Nigeria: Oil-price weakness and FX outlook constrain offshore bid; bonds offer value onshore • Ghana: GHS bonds look nominally attractive, despite FX, convertibility and investment-horizon risks • Kenya: KES infrastructure bonds will likely contin...

  • Africa – 2015: The winners and the losers - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator • Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched • Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...

  • 03-Jul – ADP: Heads-up or head fake for NFP? - Updated Wed July 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports likely remained strong • Philippines – Inflation is still on an uptrend • Kenya – We now expect the CBK to remain on hold at July’s MPC meeting • Market focus • Markets expectations for June NFP will be s...

  • 10-Jan – India’s inflation to slow; buy 5Y GoISecs - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Kenya – Policy rate expected to stay on hold until Q3 • Taiwan – TWD NEER weakness expected to aid export outlook • United States – A moderate increase in December payrolls is likely • Market focus • December CPI is likely...

  • Africa Focus – Long-term fundamentals - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...

  • Kenya – Above-trend growth still in sight - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Despite a likely setback to tourism, we expect Kenya’s economy to be largely resilient • Even given weaker-than-expected headline GDP in Q2, many other sectors outperformed • Fiscal revenue in Q1-FY14 was above the budget target • Higher headli...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Africa overview – Brighter prospects ahead - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China • African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...

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