• Despite a likely setback to tourism, we expect Kenya’s economy to be largely resilient
• Even given weaker-than-expected headline GDP in Q2, many other sectors outperformed
• Fiscal revenue in Q1-FY14 was above the budget target
• Higher headli...
• The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
Most countries now aim to achieve ‘sustainable development’, not just maximum GDP growth. But what does this mean? How can it be measured? And how does it relate to the concept of human well-being and to ‘happiness economics’?
• We present a new St...
• Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in
• We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations
• We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...
• Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China
• African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
• Fiscal policy is likely to be constrained in 2013 in a number of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns
• In some countries, debt levels have increased to worrying levels
• Reducing energy subsidies can alleviate the pressure on public finances
• Greater certainty post-election is required for markets to rally
• Economic recovery is evident from the high-frequency data
• Managing fiscal devolution post-election will be a key challenge
• Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend.
Higher spending to drive improved growth outlook in 2013
• However, Kenya’s first elections since its political fallout in 2007-08 are a key risk
• Active liquidity sterilisation by the CBK, even as it cuts policy rate further, will target KES sta...
• Q2-2012 growth rose only 3.3% y/y after growing 3.5% in Q1
• This is the weakest quarterly growth since Kenya’s post-election crisis in Q1-2008
• However, data is at odds with a number of higher-frequency indicators
• We are optimistic about a ...
• Despite IMF downgrades to global growth forecasts, real GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa should average around 5% in 2012. Africa continues to present a diverse picture: initially investor concerns centred on the impact of the slowdown in Europe; they no...
• Kenya announces a 20% increase in spending, while aiming to achieve some fiscal consolidation in FY13
• With external risks still significant, domestic borrowing may exceed budget projections
• In the very near term, local currency bond yields a...
Top 3 data/events
• South Korea/Taiwan – Reversal in capital inflows to Taiwan and Korea in April
• India – WPI to print below 7% for a third month in succession
• United States – Inflation remains well-behaved
• Tight monetary po...
• A perception of lower external risks has shifted the focus back to domestic growth in Africa. Despite oil price strength and fuel subsidy reforms in key economies, growth momentum remains favourable overall. Africa has now seen a sustained period ...
Key events and data
• Taiwan – CPI to pick up on food and transport costs
• Kenya – Central bank to keep the central bank rate on hold
• Euro area – ECB to maintain its ‘wait and see’ stance
• Market focus
• EUR strength on G10 and EM crosses ...
If this is a public computer please consider checking this box carefully.
Please access our research via your Straight2Bank account
This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
About Standard Chartered
Group investor relations
Group media centre
WB media centre
Copyright © 2014 Standard Chartered Bank