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  • Ghana – GHS bonds: Robust returns, high risk - Updated Mon May 18, 2015

    • Elevated carry and duration gains will likely result in robust GHS bond returns over the next 12 months • Local bonds could post decent unhedged USD returns despite significant FX tail risks • Foreign investors may need to be more comfortable ...

  • 15-May – Bank Indonesia likely to lower BI rate - Updated Thu May 14, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely improved slightly in March • Thailand – Faltering exports may have dragged down Q1 growth • Ghana – BoG policy rate may remain elevated for longer than expected • Market focus • We expect BI ...

  • 12-May – China’s growth was likely weak in April [Correction] - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A surplus likely reached a record high in March • Euro area – We expect GDP to have been buoyant in Q1 • Ghana – Monetary policy committee likely to hold prime rate at 21% • Market focus • April growth indices were...

  • 17-Feb – The Asian central bank road-show - Updated Mon February 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ likely to stay put at the February meeting • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain benign for now • Ghana – MPC expected to leave interest rates unchanged • Market focus • Asian central banks remain constructive...

  • SSA rates 2015 − Battling a bearish FX bias - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    Nigeria: Oil-price weakness and FX outlook constrain offshore bid; bonds offer value onshore • Ghana: GHS bonds look nominally attractive, despite FX, convertibility and investment-horizon risks • Kenya: KES infrastructure bonds will likely contin...

  • Ghana – All eyes on an IMF programme - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • In the absence of an IMF deal, meeting external financing requirements may be more difficult • Plans for faster fiscal consolidation have been unveiled; spending will be closely scrutinised • Inflation is likely to rise faster in H1; the Bank of...

  • Africa – 2015: The winners and the losers - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator • Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched • Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...

  • 11-Nov – BoE set to signal no rate hike until H2-2015 - Updated Mon November 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Offshore RMB market gets a boost • India – IP likely slowed in September; October CPI likely moderated • Ghana – Tightening, but format is uncertain • Market focus • We expect the BoE to lower its UK growth and ...

  • 17-Sep – Expectations for FOMC: Too far too fast? - Updated Tue September 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect another 25bps hike • Euro area – We expect September TLTRO take-up of EUR 125-150bn • Ghana – BoG likely to pause tightening cycle at September MPC • Market focus • FOMC meeting: A moderately more hawki...

  • 02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely c...



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15-May – Bank Indonesia likely to lower...

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely improved slightly in March • Thailand – Faltering exports may have dragged down Q1 growth • Ghana – BoG policy rate may remain elevated for longer than expected • Market focus • We expect BI to lower the BI rate by 25bps, but keep the...

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