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  • 17-Feb – The Asian central bank road-show - Updated Mon February 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ likely to stay put at the February meeting • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain benign for now • Ghana – MPC expected to leave interest rates unchanged • Market focus • Asian central banks remain constructive...

  • SSA rates 2015 − Battling a bearish FX bias - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    Nigeria: Oil-price weakness and FX outlook constrain offshore bid; bonds offer value onshore • Ghana: GHS bonds look nominally attractive, despite FX, convertibility and investment-horizon risks • Kenya: KES infrastructure bonds will likely contin...

  • Ghana – All eyes on an IMF programme - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • In the absence of an IMF deal, meeting external financing requirements may be more difficult • Plans for faster fiscal consolidation have been unveiled; spending will be closely scrutinised • Inflation is likely to rise faster in H1; the Bank of...

  • Africa – 2015: The winners and the losers - Updated Tue December 2, 2014

    GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator • Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched • Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...

  • 11-Nov – BoE set to signal no rate hike until H2-2015 - Updated Mon November 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Offshore RMB market gets a boost • India – IP likely slowed in September; October CPI likely moderated • Ghana – Tightening, but format is uncertain • Market focus • We expect the BoE to lower its UK growth and ...

  • China-Africa: Trade is still growing - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    • China-Africa trade looks likely to reach around USD 215bn in 2014 after USD 210bn in 2013 • Trade growth of 2.3% up to August 2014 was a sharp drop from the trend over the last decade • Trade performance with China across SSA is varied; there ...

  • 17-Sep – Expectations for FOMC: Too far too fast? - Updated Tue September 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect another 25bps hike • Euro area – We expect September TLTRO take-up of EUR 125-150bn • Ghana – BoG likely to pause tightening cycle at September MPC • Market focus • FOMC meeting: A moderately more hawki...

  • Ghana – A high debt penalty - Updated Tue June 10, 2014

    • Despite the promise of greater oil & gas output in the medium term, Ghana faces significant challenges • Investors continue to demand higher premia for taking on Ghana risk • Limiting the fiscal deficit as a % of GDP to single digits will be...

  • Africa overview - This time (still) for Africa - Updated Tue June 10, 2014

    • Further ECB easing provides a boost to African frontier markets; Kenya an early beneficiary • We look for spikes in USD-NGN to enter short-term FGN bill positions • IMF funding may be a potential positive for Ghana, as it was for Zambia...

  • 02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely c...

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