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  • 02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely c...

  • Ghana – In support of the GHS - Updated Wed February 5, 2014

    Ahead of the first MPC meeting of 2014, the Bank of Ghana issues new details on FX regulations • Existing regulations regarding export proceeds are restated • Rules on the operation of foreign-currency accounts are modified • Foreign-exchange bu...

  • 18-Nov – The Plenum delivered! - Updated Sun November 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA minutes to reflect its cautious view • Turkey – CBRT set to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.5% • Ghana – Pace of fiscal consolidation will be closely watched • Market focus • China rolls out biggest econo...

  • Africa Focus – Long-term fundamentals - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...

  • Ghana – The long road to fiscal consolidation - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • Slower H1 GDP suggests that last year’s public-sector wage hikes did not have a lasting impact on growth • Utility and fuel price adjustments are encouraging, but a large debt service burden and weak budget flexibility will curb pro-growth spendi...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • Measuring sustainable development - Updated Wed September 18, 2013

    Most countries now aim to achieve ‘sustainable development’, not just maximum GDP growth. But what does this mean? How can it be measured? And how does it relate to the concept of human well-being and to ‘happiness economics’? • We present a new St...

  • 30-Jul – The tipping point - Updated Mon July 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Q2 GDP data should show a more rapidly expanding economy • Ghana – Prime rate on hold, other measures watched • Switzerland – Another rise in KOF index reflects consumption strength • Market focus • This week’s FO...

  • Ghana – Challenges ahead - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Anticipated headline growth rate of c.8% is likely to mask some slowdown in the non-oil economy • Measures aimed at helping fiscal consolidation will nonetheless contribute to short-term price pressures • A weaker outlook for key commodity expor...



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Trade idea

02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations

Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely continue to blame low inflation on energy...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.