GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator
• Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched
• Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...
• Growth has picked up, but remains lower than in many SSA countries
• The fiscal outlook is deteriorating due to the weight of fuel subsidies
• The national refinery suffers from government arrears...
• The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
• Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China
• African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...
• Confidence and economic activity continue to improve
• Public finances remain challenging but are improving
• Political concerns are easing...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
• Cote d’Ivoire continues to enjoy strong international support
• This is helping the government to increase public investment
• While stability is likely to prevail, challenges remain
• Fiscal policy is likely to be constrained in 2013 in a number of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns
• In some countries, debt levels have increased to worrying levels
• Reducing energy subsidies can alleviate the pressure on public finances
• Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend.
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