• We expect slightly softer GDP in 2015 on government efforts to rebuild financial reserves
• Monetary easing is likely; tight banking-sector liquidity constrains credit growth
• Opposition gains in parliament suggest a more contested political la...
GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator
• Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched
• Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...
• Government spending rises in an election year
• However, business sentiment surveys show a marked departure from trend
• Rebuilding of financial reserves to pre-crisis levels may require further fiscal consolidation
• Further ECB easing provides a boost to African frontier markets; Kenya an early beneficiary
• We look for spikes in USD-NGN to enter short-term FGN bill positions
• IMF funding may be a potential positive for Ghana, as it was for Zambia...
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
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