• We expect slightly softer GDP in 2015 on government efforts to rebuild financial reserves
• Monetary easing is likely; tight banking-sector liquidity constrains credit growth
• Opposition gains in parliament suggest a more contested political la...
GDP growth will likely remain robust in 2015; oil prices will be a key differentiator
• Interplay between domestic politics and resource taxation regimes will be closely watched
• Expectations of rising resource revenue have driven Eurobond issuan...
• Government spending rises in an election year
• However, business sentiment surveys show a marked departure from trend
• Rebuilding of financial reserves to pre-crisis levels may require further fiscal consolidation
• Further ECB easing provides a boost to African frontier markets; Kenya an early beneficiary
• We look for spikes in USD-NGN to enter short-term FGN bill positions
• IMF funding may be a potential positive for Ghana, as it was for Zambia...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
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