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  • Taiwan – Things are looking up - Updated Fri April 18, 2014

    Latest Taiwan data shows growth momentum picking up and inflation edging higher The recent student protest is likely to have only a minimal impact on the near-term growth outlook Policy makers may consider shifting to a neutral monetary stance and...

  • Turkey trip notes – Before and after elections - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    • Despite differences of opinion, the AKP election victory is viewed as conducive to stability • The political roadmap may be clearer, but this does not rule out more market-moving political noise • We reaffirm our GDP growth call of 2.2% for 201...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads: 11 – 16 April 2014 - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    • The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 11 to 16 April 2014. They are listed in descending order of most reads: • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows •...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and NGN - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Asia: In March, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY, SGD, INR; USD buyers vs. HKD, THB, CNH • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. INR, KRW, CNY; long USD positioning is large vs. IDR, CNH • Africa: SCTF Position Index shows clients are...

  • KRW – Underpinned by ‘under-conversion’ - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Korea’s substantial current account surpluses have been fully recycled by capital account deficits • Under-conversion of overseas FX receivables may be a source of KRW demand going forward • Growth-inflation mix is broadly neutral for USD-KRW, b...

  • China – The expanding credit universe and the deleveraging challenge - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    This slide pack shows what is happening with credit in China today • We show how WMPs work, how offshore borrowing is rising and how best to measure credit growth • Phase one of deleveraging – slower credit growth – has begun; we outline the next ...

  • 17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1 - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y...

  • China – Q1 was weak; Q2 will likely be weaker - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • China’s official Q1 GDP grew 7.4%, slightly outperforming market expectations • Growth in credit and housing sales, the key leading indicators, is decelerating • We adjust down our CPI inflation forecast for 2014 to 2.3% from 3.3% • Stimulus me...

  • JPY – A gathering storm - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • We highlight increasing downside risks to USD-JPY in the near term; expect a pick-up in JPY volatility • The Bank of Japan appears comfortably sidelined for now even as domestic data hits a soft patch • We revise our short-term USD-JPY forecas...

  • Iron ore – Living with cash-tight consumers - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • Most iron ore buyers from China are cash-tight as banks withdraw financial support • We think more steel mills are likely to go bankrupt this year • We maintain a bearish view on iron ore prices in H2-2014 ...



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17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.