• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
USD-ZAR likely to see further upside in Q2; we raise our 2015 FX forecasts, still anticipating a Q2 peak
• In line with our new FX forecasts, we downgrade our short-term FX weighting on the ZAR to Neutral
• We upgrade our medium-term ZAR FX weigh...
• Growth remains weak – lower price of imported oil to provide some reprieve
• Politics will remain key to labour relations and of wage negotiations
• Debt ratios to peak at a high level, signalling ongoing vulnerability
Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve
• Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil
• October fund allocations reflect ...
SARB shifts balance of risks on inflation; lower oil prices offset persistent domestic pressures
• Post-strike production volumes of platinum-group metals are rising, boosting overall export revenues
• Sharp oil-price fall in October outstrips p...
Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt; EM FX weakness puts pressure on EM bonds
• Structural investors continue to favour Asia bonds; hard data supports Korea and Indonesia
• Flow rotation continues from Russia, Turkey and So...
• We revise down our South Africa 2014 GDP growth forecast to 1.4%
• Amid the threat to bank ratings, credit conditions are tightening; household deleveraging persists
• Weak growth and Eskom support package are likely to delay fiscal consolidatio...
Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt
• Allocations moved towards Brazil in August on Marina Silva, a catalyst for change; now Dilma fights back
• Brazil’s subsequent underperformance makes it cheap and positioning is not skew...
We give our initial reaction to the budget – there are some positives for local markets
• The Treasury targets faster fiscal consolidation for the current year and the medium term
• Delivery risk will be linked both to the external environment a...
• The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has raised its repo rate by 50bps to 5.5% for the first time since the 2008-09 global economic crisis. Although there was a modest downward adjustment of growth forecasts for 2014 and 2015, revised SAR...
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