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  • 31-Mar – BoJ’s Tankan likely to show a mixed picture - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • UK – We expect the manufacturing PMI to have improved further • South Korea – CPI inflation was likely low; trade surplus likely increased • China – Manufacturing sector likely remained sluggish in March • Market focus • Bo...

  • 30-Mar – Euro area is gaining momentum - Updated Sun March 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely dropped during the Lunar New Year holiday • Thailand – Rising tourism income may have boosted C/A surplus • US – Soft core PCE inflation to keep September hike on track • Market focus • The euro area ...

  • 27-Mar – Investor feedback from Tokyo - Updated Thu March 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Industrial production likely dropped m/m in February • South Korea – We expect sentiment to deteriorate in April • US – Q4 to be revised up slightly; personal spending up too • Market focus • Japanese investors are ...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • Cross-currents and vulnerability in AXJ currencies - Updated Tue March 17, 2015

    Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call • USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility • We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...

  • Asia data previews – 13-20 March 2015 - Updated Fri March 13, 2015

    • We think BI will maintain an easing bias amid low inflation and global central bank easing • Singapore’s February NODX was likely affected by Lunar New Year data distortions • We expect a BoJ move in April not March ...

  • Korean swap spread – Can it turn positive? - Updated Fri March 13, 2015

    The Korean swap spread is likely to stay negative in the near future • Our model indicates that the curve term premium, default risk premium, volatility and structured note issuance are key drivers of Korea’s swap spread • We turn to a Neutral d...

  • Korea – Which came first, the BoK or the market? - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    • BoK cuts the base rate to a record-low 1.75%, against consensus • We expect no further easing this year • We recommend Underweight short-term FX weighting on the KRW and Neutral on KTB duration ...

  • Korea swap-point tightening – How low can it go? - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    We expect Korea swap-point tightening to continue on expectations of rising USD rates • Swap point is unlikely to turn negative near-term given likely slow pace of Fed rate hikes, flush liquidity • We expect the swap point to test the zero bound a...

  • Bank of Korea cuts base rate 25bps - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    Event – The Bank of Korea (BoK) surprised the market today by cutting the base rate by 25bps to 1.75%, a record low – even lower than the level reached during the global financial crisis in 2009. The move was against the market consensus view of no ...



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31-Mar – BoJ’s Tankan likely to show a...

Top 3 data/events • UK – We expect the manufacturing PMI to have improved further • South Korea – CPI inflation was likely low; trade surplus likely increased • China – Manufacturing sector likely remained sluggish in March • Market focus • BoJ’s Tankan likely indicates improving...

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