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  • 23-Apr – Solid Korean growth and the KRW puzzle - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ will likely hike the cash rate again, to 3.00% • Germany – IFO to show firm fundamentals dampened by shaky outlook • US – Markit PMI survey may show ongoing manufacturing expansion • Market focus ...

  • KRW – Underpinned by ‘under-conversion’ - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Korea’s substantial current account surpluses have been fully recycled by capital account deficits • Under-conversion of overseas FX receivables may be a source of KRW demand going forward • Growth-inflation mix is broadly neutral for USD-KRW, b...

  • 07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE - Updated Sun April 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ...

  • 31-Mar – Reserve Bank of India likely to stay on hold - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI may show further moderation • South Korea – CPI inflation expected to be benign, even with recovery • Australia – RBA likely to maintain a ‘period of stability’ in rates • Market focus • Sharp correction in in...

  • Korea – The new BoK governor - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    President Park chose a technocratic BoK insider as the next governor, against market expectations • Ju-yeol Lee is a moderate in terms of monetary policy; interest-rate cuts are unlikely in the near term • We expect the BoK keep the base rate stea...

  • Korea – New BoK Governor Lee seen as neutral - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    Event - South Korea’s presidential office today announced the appointment of Lee Joo Yeol as the new Bank of Korea (BoK) governor. This was a surprise, as the market had expected the new governor to be a more dovish choice from within the president’...

  • 28-Feb – Manageable inflation in Asia - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – PMI likely maintained a positive but weak signal • South Korea – Trade expected to have increased in February • China – Manufacturing sector likely saw a mild expansion in February • Market focus • Asia will se...

  • 27-Feb – The hidden North Asia risk story - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely fell on adverse base effect and external factors • India – Yet another quarter of weak economic activity • US – Durable goods orders: More than the weather • Market focus • Authorities’ desire to di...

  • South Korea – Macro data supports the recovery story - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    Positive sentiment is being challenged by shaky market conditions • Macro leading indicators continue to support the recovery story • We do not share concerns about Korea facing deflation; BoK likely to be on hold until Q3...

  • 12-Feb – US: Yellen sings from Bernanke’s songbook - Updated Tue February 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely rose to a 4.5-year high of 5.9% • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in February • South Korea – The policy rate is likely to be kept on hold at 2.5% • Market focus • There...

  • 30-Jan – A 10bn tapering goodbye - Updated Wed January 29, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Trade was likely slower and inflation benign in January • Thailand – Political unrest likely to hit the current account • Euro area – Downward inflationary pressure tests ECB tolerance • Market focus • The ...

  • 28 Jan – Meanwhile, the Fed tapers - Updated Mon January 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events Malaysia – BNM likely to keep rates on hold, remain cautious on growth • South Korea – IP likely rose modestly, despite the rail strike • Turkey – CBRT calls an emergency meeting Market focus • We do not think current market ...

  • What Korean clients think … - Updated Thu January 23, 2014

    • Korean corporates are more optimistic about 2014 than they were about 2013 • But concerns about risks from domestic economy outweigh those about risks from external environment • Revenue growth remains their biggest concern, and managing costs ...

  • 13-Jan – Fed vs. weather - Updated Sun January 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Labour market expected to have remained stable • Japan – Current account likely stayed negative in November • UK – Inflation likely to have stabilised in December • Market focus • December NFP a cold shower, ...

  • 29-Nov – Pricing CNY into year-end - Updated Thu November 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Imports continue to grow as the economy recovers • Thailand – Take profit on receive THB 3Y IRS • USD-CAD – We are raising the stop-loss on our long position Market focus • China’s official manufacturing PMI ...

  • 28-Nov – Adjusting our USD-Latam forecasts - Updated Wed November 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Q2-FY14 GDP expected to edge up • South Korea – IP likely rebounded on export growth • Euro area – Persistent low inflation ahead of December’s ECB meeting • Market focus • Broad USD strength in H1-2014 is a core th...

  • South Korea – On track for stronger growth in 2014 - Updated Tue November 12, 2013

    Q3 GDP growth was above expectations, adding to confidence about stronger growth in 2014 • We expect 2.7% GDP growth in 2013, owing to less government support in Q4 • We lower our headline CPI inflation forecasts for 2013 and 2014, due to recent ...

  • 28-Oct – India: RBI – Sequencing the exit - Updated Sun October 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Rising retail sales and hiring indicate growing confidence • South Korea – Industrial production likely contracted in September • US – Pending homes sales likely slowed, but IP probably increased • Market focus • Hi...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • South Korea – External sector to the rescue - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    The boost to Korea‟s economy from improving export growth is not yet feeding into stronger domestic activity. We expect this improvement to materialise by Q4-2013, allowing Korea to break out of its recent pattern of weakening growth in H2 versus H1...



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Trade idea

07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to stay put at its April 7-8 meeting,...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.