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  • Receive KRW 5Y, 5Y forward and flatten 2Y/10Y curve - Updated Fri May 29, 2015

    Receive KRW 5Y, 5Y forward, as supply and hedging pressure from MBS issuance are already priced in • Enter into KRW 2Y/10Y IRS flattener as the steepening is overdone and the curve should bull flatten • We also take profit on both 2Y/5Y IRS steepe...

  • 29-May – Korea – Mixed data and policy uncertainty - Updated Thu May 28, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation may have picked up in April • China – Manufacturing sector likely continued to face difficulty • Brazil – BCB likely to keep 50bps tightening pace in 3 June meeting • Market focus • Korea’s upcoming ...

  • 26 May – India – Modi’s first year: Targeting reforms - Updated Mon May 25, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – April monitoring indicators index likely remained in ‘yellow-blue’ zone • Japan – Retail sales likely improved m/m in April • Korea – We expect April IP to have improved • Market focus • India’s government has take...

  • 14-May – BoK likely to keep base rate on hold - Updated Wed May 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – CGPI may have contracted as the sales-tax effect faded • Hong Kong – We expect downside risks to Q1 GDP growth • Latam – We expect the BCCh and BCRP to keep rates unchanged • Market focus • We expect no BoK rate cut...

  • Revisiting our Asian LCY bond-market views - Updated Mon May 11, 2015

    Global bond-market sell-off has affected Asian bond markets, albeit unevenly • We still like 5Y THB and MYR bonds; we widen the stop-loss level on our long 5Y THB bond trade • We remain Positive on IGBs and shift to long 5Y IGBs from long 10Y IGBs...

  • Asia data previews – 8-15 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 8, 2015

    China growth likely softened further in April, while inflation remained subdued • We expect the central banks of the Philippines and South Korea to keep policy rates on hold • IP growth in Malaysia probably eased in March; private consumption like...

  • What Korean corporates in India think - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    Korean corporates are bullish on the Indian economy but have yet to see the benefits of regime change • They are positive on the INR over the long run and sceptical about potential economic gains from a weak INR policy • A strong KRW relative to t...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Silver linings - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    RGI fell in March, the first time since Oct-2012, on a weak CNY, lower deposits and less Dim Sum issuance • Since March, however, CNY has stabilised, southbound flows have risen and CNH liquidity has improved • Renminbi trade settlement remains s...

  • Korea – Swap points outlook - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Swap points are likely to remain range-bound in Q2 and tighten in H2 given BoK’s less dovish stance from the lagged effect of previous rate cuts • We expect the swap point to reach their tightest levels by Q4-2016 but are unlikely to hit the zero b...

  • Korea – No more cuts as signs of recovery emerge - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    • Benefits of previous rate cuts are emerging – housing market is picking up, KOSPI is rallying, credit is increasing and policy makers are becoming less dovish • We maintain our view of no rate change this year • We maintain our Neutral outlook o...

  • 30-Apr – Fed data-watching continues - Updated Wed April 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing sector likely still under pressure • South Korea – April trade probably softened further • Mexico – Banxico likely to hold back, awaiting the Fed’s move • Market focus • Fed statement noted recent weak...

  • 29-Apr – BCB likely to hike another 50bps - Updated Tue April 28, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – We expect IP to have contracted in March • Taiwan – Large trade surplus likely to have supported Q1 GDP growth • Euro area – CPI likely remained in negative territory • Market focus • SELIC rate will likely be...

  • Asia data previews – 24 April-1 May 2015 - Updated Fri April 24, 2015

    BoJ may add JPY 10tn to its asset purchase programme and reconsider the inflation target timeline • BoT is likely finished with its easing cycle; the RBNZ may maintain its dovish stance but not ease as yet • China’s manufacturing sector is still u...

  • Korea – IRS curve to steepen on MBS hedging - Updated Fri April 24, 2015

    We expect the IRS 2Y/5Y and 2Y/10Y curves to steepen on MBS hedging flows 5Y-10Y KTB yields are likely to rise on increasing duration risk Discussions on a supplementary budget are likely to start in late Q2; we think the BoK will remain dovish...

  • 22-Apr – Clouds gather over the INR - Updated Tue April 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP likely contracted again in March • Taiwan – IP data likely to have slowed due to base effects • South Korea – Q1 GDP likely to have been subdued • Market focus • India’s equity-market outperformance has stalle...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • 15-Apr – BoC likely to wait as jury is still out - Updated Tue April 14, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Sewol ferry disaster, one year on • Australia – March unemployment rate was likely unchanged at 6.3% • Philippines – Remittance growth likely rebounded; challenges ahead • Market focus • The Bank of Canada may...

  • 14-Apr – China’s growth likely slowed further - Updated Mon April 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – March unemployment rate was likely subdued • Euro area – Good momentum, but the ECB will continue with QE • US – Consumers likely returned to shops in March • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP growth may have slow...

  • Asia economy trackers – Slight improvement vs Q4 - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    Trackers signalling stronger Q1 GDP growth outnumber those signalling weaker growth • Trackers for China, Australia and Japan suggest a soft performance in Q1-2015 • Trackers for India, South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong indicate stronger growth ...

  • South Korea – RMPP likely to have a limited impact - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    The government introduces a new programme for household debt restructuring • We think the programme (RMPP) will have a limited impact in mitigating household debt risk • The programme’s impact on IRS curve steepening is also likely to be limited,...



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29-May – Korea – Mixed data and policy...

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation may have picked up in April • China – Manufacturing sector likely continued to face difficulty • Brazil – BCB likely to keep 50bps tightening pace in 3 June meeting • Market focus • Korea’s upcoming economic data releases are likely to be...

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